I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed to failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various Met Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail, either through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run, possibly indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already produced by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of forecast data is transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let alone a forecaster.. To get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these operational systems would need be to shut down before the staff left the building and somehow I can't see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read at 0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the Met Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the Met Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET, I can see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV weather is probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to what a lot of the outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's and 1980's that's a wealth of information enough to run a forecast office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that the Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that they hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some systems such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the moment, but I should imagine work on automating these systems are in the pipe-line.

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably find a plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the lights - but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the super-computer!"

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed to
failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various Met
Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail, either
through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run, possibly
indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already produced
by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of forecast data is
transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let alone a forecaster. To
get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these operational systems would
need be to shut down before the staff left the building and somehow I can't
see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read at
0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the
observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the Met
Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the Met
Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET, I can
see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV weather is
probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to what a lot of the
outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's and 1980's that's a
wealth of information enough to run a forecast office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that the
Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that they
hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some systems
such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the moment, but I
should imagine work on automating these systems are in the pipe-line.

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably find a
plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the lights -
but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the super-computer!"
=========================

That is true for the operational side but what a lot of people forget is
that the biggest profession in the Met Office is now Research. Especially
big earning ones like Climate Change. As I keep saying the long term
strategic aim of the MetO is to make all observing and forecasting
automatic. Observing has been largely done and they are now a long way
towards automating the entire forecast process. That will be achieved fully
in the 2020s. Robots may be presenting the TV forecast by the 2030s. But
Research will continue and so will IT and system development although AI
will slowly take over some of those roles in the 2020s with full automation
of IT by 2030 when machines will be able to maintain and debug themselves.
In essence what I am saying is the MetO like other companies will only use
humans where required. Soon that will just be in Research, Service and HR
management and various business functions plus the NSWWS (for the time
being).

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Wed, 24 Feb 2016 03:55:46 -0800 (PST), xmetman
wrote:

I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed to failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various Met Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail, either through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run, possibly indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already produced by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of forecast data is transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let alone a forecaster. To get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these operational systems would need be to shut down before the staff left the building and somehow I can't see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read at 0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the Met Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the Met Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET, I can see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV weather is probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to what a lot of the outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's and 1980's that's a wealth of information enough to run a forecast office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that the Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that they hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some systems such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the moment, but I should imagine work on automating these systems are in the pipe-line.

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably find a plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the lights - but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the super-computer!"


ECMWF runs with almost no operational staff. The model just keeps on doing its
thing with only a systems minder keeping an eye on it. Most of the staff there
are involved in developing model upgrades.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On Wednesday, 24 February 2016 12:24:17 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
On Wed, 24 Feb 2016 03:55:46 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed to failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various Met Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail, either through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run, possibly indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already produced by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of forecast data is transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let alone a forecaster. To get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these operational systems would need be to shut down before the staff left the building and somehow I can't see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read at 0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the Met Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the Met Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET, I can see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV weather is probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to what a lot of the outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's and 1980's that's a wealth of information enough to run a forecast office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that the Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that they hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some systems such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the moment, but I should imagine work on automating these systems are in the pipe-line..

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably find a plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the lights - but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the super-computer!"


ECMWF runs with almost no operational staff. The model just keeps on doing its
thing with only a systems minder keeping an eye on it. Most of the staff there
are involved in developing model upgrades.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the hourly forecast for today is correct, then job done.
No need for weather savvy staff.
This is UKMO philosophy.

Trouble is we know on this ng that the NWP cocks up sometimes.
And the general public are more aware of forecast cock ups these days with the app on their smart phones.

So the research boys and girls better get it right in the next few years and not just blindly think that more computing power will improve the forecasts.

Len
Wembury

------------------------------------------------------------------------

On 24/02/2016 12:15, Eskimo Will wrote:
But Research will continue and so will IT and system
development although AI will slowly take over some of those roles in the
2020s with full automation of IT by 2030 when machines will be able to
maintain and debug themselves. In essence what I am saying is the MetO
like other companies will only use humans where required. Soon that will
just be in Research, Service and HR management and various business
functions plus the NSWWS (for the time being).

Will
---------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know the significance of 2030 but I will be happy if the human
race is still in existence if Messrs Trump and Johnson have been in
power in the intervening years :-(
Dave

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 24 February 2016 12:24:17 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
On Wed, 24 Feb 2016 03:55:46 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed
to failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various
Met Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail,
either through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run,
possibly indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already
produced by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of
forecast data is transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let
alone a forecaster. To get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these
operational systems would need be to shut down before the staff left the
building and somehow I can't see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read
at 0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the
observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the
Met Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the
Met Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET,
I can see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV
weather is probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to
what a lot of the outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's
and 1980's that's a wealth of information enough to run a forecast
office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that
the Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that
they hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some
systems such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the
moment, but I should imagine work on automating these systems are in the
pipe-line.

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably
find a plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the
lights - but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the
super-computer!"


ECMWF runs with almost no operational staff. The model just keeps on doing
its
thing with only a systems minder keeping an eye on it. Most of the staff
there
are involved in developing model upgrades.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the hourly forecast for today is correct, then job done.
No need for weather savvy staff.
This is UKMO philosophy.

Trouble is we know on this ng that the NWP cocks up sometimes.
And the general public are more aware of forecast cock ups these days with
the app on their smart phones.

So the research boys and girls better get it right in the next few years and
not just blindly think that more computing power will improve the forecasts.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

They will Len. NWP has made great advances over the years and will continue
to do so. The 1.5Km model will seem very coarse in the 2020s when models
will become linked. There will be environmental models linked to atmosphere
and ocean models. Atmosphere/ocean are already linked. River flows will be
modelled automatically and account will be taken directly of sea spray on
visibility with no need for crude post-processing algorithms. Modelling is
the future and it will do it all with increasing accuracy, I have no doubt
whatsoever about that. Observation power will also increase with arrays of
satellites operating at ultra small wavelengths and at very high vertical
resolution. No time scale on all this but perhaps in our now restricted
lifetimes Len. Our grandchildren will know the weather 24 hours ahead to an
astonishing accuracy!

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
On 24/02/2016 12:15, Eskimo Will wrote:
But Research will continue and so will IT and system
development although AI will slowly take over some of those roles in the
2020s with full automation of IT by 2030 when machines will be able to
maintain and debug themselves. In essence what I am saying is the MetO
like other companies will only use humans where required. Soon that will
just be in Research, Service and HR management and various business
functions plus the NSWWS (for the time being).

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know the significance of 2030 but I will be happy if the human
race is still in existence if Messrs Trump and Johnson have been in power
in the intervening years :-(

Yes perhaps kicking ass is not the best way to operate. There is no
significance to 2030 except that it is likely to be my final decade this
time around on earth!

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Dave Cornwell wrote in news:KHhzy.1085562
:

On 24/02/2016 12:15, Eskimo Will wrote:
But Research will continue and so will IT and system
development although AI will slowly take over some of those roles in the
2020s with full automation of IT by 2030 when machines will be able to
maintain and debug themselves. In essence what I am saying is the MetO
like other companies will only use humans where required. Soon that will
just be in Research, Service and HR management and various business
functions plus the NSWWS (for the time being).

Will
---------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't know the significance of 2030 but I will be happy if the human
race is still in existence if Messrs Trump and Johnson have been in
power in the intervening years :-(
Dave



One thing thosew two have in common is bad hair.

I'm sure are heading the way you say but I think it will probably take
longer.

Alan

On Wed, 24 Feb 2016 03:55:46 -0800 (PST), xmetman
wrote:

I was just thinking about why a strike by the Met Office is always doomed to failure before it starts, and that's because so many of the various Met Office systems are fully automated, and as long as they don't fail, either through a hardware or software fault they will continue to run, possibly indefinitely barring a complete comms failure.

It's true operational staff add value to products that are already produced by the various NWP models, but I also imagine that a lot of forecast data is transmitted without it ever being seen by anyone, let alone a forecaster. To get the maximum effect from a 24 hour strike these operational systems would need be to shut down before the staff left the building and somehow I can't see that happening.

Years ago when we went on strike the temperature and rainfall wasn't read at 0900 and 2100 on the day of the strike, but now we have AWS, so the observational and climate data is safe.

From home I can see weather radar images and satellite imagery from the Met Office web site, I can see observational and forecast data from the Met Office DataPoint site, I can see UK SYNOPs courtesy of FSU & OGIMET, I can see the latest TAFs & METARs courtesy of the ADDS service. BBC TV weather is probably showing me the latest NWP on TV. In comparison to what a lot of the outstations received in the way of data in the 1970's and 1980's that's a wealth of information enough to run a forecast office.

I think that all the strike will achieve is highlight to the public that the Met Office computer systems that are in place are so resilient that they hardly need people at all, so why do we need so many? Obviously some systems such as gale warnings and alerts aren't fully automatic at the moment, but I should imagine work on automating these systems are in the pipe-line.

In the foyer of the Met Office in a few years time, you will probably find a plaque above the door that reads:

"Will the last person to leave the Met Office please turn out the lights - but for God's sake don't turn off the servers or the super-computer!"


The bit of the Met Office that issues the News Releases is working today because
I've just received one.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Idiot. Appalinly foul-mouthed and threatening idiot to boot