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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic
for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? |
#2
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On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? I just want spring to arrive when it is supposed to followed by summer for a change. As far as the SE is concerned we seem to have two seasons spring and autumn. -- Keith (Southend) "Weather Home & Abroad" http://www.southendweather.net Twitter:@SS9Weatherman |
#3
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On 05/03/2016 10:28, Keith (Southend) wrote:
On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote: I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? I just want spring to arrive when it is supposed to followed by summer for a change. As far as the SE is concerned we seem to have two seasons spring and autumn. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's beginning to look that way - certainly for the last three years although I'm still finding the summers to be ok, if not constant heatwaves. |
#4
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On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have mixed feelings of what would be a welcome change at this stage. A change from today's cold, wet weather would be nice. But they were indicating a potentially "proper" late cold spell towards the end of the month. I wouldn't actually mind seeing a few snow flakes and snow on the ground for a couple of days for the first time for three years. If not though, yes, as much Spring warmth and sunshine as possible - not this evil in between stuff like today. Dave, S.Essex |
#5
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"JohnD" Wrote in message:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? The way I read it was that the models are indicating a brief milder spell in a week's time, and the trend after that is not at all clear. With that in mind, I think the only change after day 10 is an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio :-) -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
#6
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Freddie Wrote in message:
increase in the signal-to-noise ratio :-) I mean an increase in noise, and decrease in signal :-) Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
#7
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In message , JohnD
writes I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean - and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png (Currently that's from today's 12Z run.) That's the 850mb temperature for a spot somewhere in the vicinity of Swindon, but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time of year without it being reflected at the surface. The ECM is also looking pretty good. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
#8
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In message , Freddie
writes John Hall Wrote in message: In message , JohnD writes I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean - and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png (Currently that's from today's 12Z run.) but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time of year without it being reflected at the surface. That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels, especially if the wind has an easterly component. Thanks. I thought that marked inversions were more a winter thing. In this case, it doesn't look as if there will be an easterly component, as at 10 days out both GFS and ECM currently show an anticyclone centred close to southern England. (That location could quickly change in future runs, of course.) At this time of the year, one would expect it to be fairly sunny, and the sun is now strong enough to warm things up nicely by day, though the nights might still be chilly. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones |
#9
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John Hall Wrote in message:
In message , JohnD writes I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean - and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png (Currently that's from today's 12Z run.) but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time of year without it being reflected at the surface. That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels, especially if the wind has an easterly component. -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
#10
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On Saturday, 5 March 2016 21:07:27 UTC, Freddie wrote:
John Hall Wrote in message: Freddie writes John Hall Wrote in message: In message , JohnD writes I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point. Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded? The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean - and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png (Currently that's from today's 12Z run.) but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time of year without it being reflected at the surface. That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels, especially if the wind has an easterly component. Thanks. I thought that marked inversions were more a winter thing. At the surface, yes. A few thousand feet off the surface they can appear any time of the year. In this case, it doesn't look as if there will be an easterly component, as at 10 days out both GFS and ECM currently show an anticyclone centred close to southern England. If there is an anticyclone present, then it is likely that there was descent occurring as it formed, which illustrates my point above. At this time of the year, one would expect it to be fairly sunny, and the sun is now strong enough to warm things up nicely by day But the amount of warming won't be affected by temperatures at 850hPa - the sun isn't _that_ strong in March. Maybe in June or July. -- John Hall "Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ Depends on the cloudiness of the anticyclonic situation. Inversion topped boundary layer can warm nicely even at this time of the year, at least down here in S. Devon. Warming from the surface and entrainment from above. Lovely today. Had some nice cloud streets. Len Wembury, SW Devon |
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