I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic
for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for
instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially
more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but
probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next
weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight
change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other
and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded?

On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature
summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so
from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild
at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month
on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40
the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better
founded?

I just want spring to arrive when it is supposed to followed by summer
for a change. As far as the SE is concerned we seem to have two seasons
spring and autumn.

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

On 05/03/2016 10:28, Keith (Southend) wrote:
On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature
summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so
from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild
at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month
on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40
the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better
founded?

I just want spring to arrive when it is supposed to followed by summer
for a change. As far as the SE is concerned we seem to have two seasons
spring and autumn.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's beginning to look that way - certainly for the last three years
although I'm still finding the summers to be ok, if not constant heatwaves.

On 05/03/2016 10:16, JohnD wrote:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature
summary for instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so
from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild
at first, but probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month
on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40
the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better
founded?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have mixed feelings of what would be a welcome change at this stage. A
change from today's cold, wet weather would be nice. But they were
indicating a potentially "proper" late cold spell towards the end of the
month. I wouldn't actually mind seeing a few snow flakes and snow on the
ground for a couple of days for the first time for three years. If not
though, yes, as much Spring warmth and sunshine as possible - not this
evil in between stuff like today.
Dave, S.Essex

"JohnD" Wrote in message:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic
for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for
instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially
more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but
probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next
weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight
change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other
and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded?

The way I read it was that the models are indicating a brief
milder spell in a week's time, and the trend after that is not at
all clear. With that in mind, I think the only change after day
10 is an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio :-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
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Freddie Wrote in message:
increase in the signal-to-noise ratio :-)
I mean an increase in noise, and decrease in signal :-)

Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

In message , JohnD
writes
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The
temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the
past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are
likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal
later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to
60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something
better founded?

The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the
operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean -
and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's
been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the
potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

(Currently that's from today's 12Z run.)

That's the 850mb temperature for a spot somewhere in the vicinity of
Swindon, but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time
of year without it being reflected at the surface.

The ECM is also looking pretty good.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

In message , Freddie
writes
John Hall Wrote in message:
In message , JohnD
writes
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The
temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the
past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are
likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal
later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to
60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something
better founded?

The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the
operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean -
and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's
been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the
potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

(Currently that's from today's 12Z run.)

but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time
of year without it being reflected at the surface.
That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions
at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the
atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa
level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that
warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are
more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels,
especially if the wind has an easterly component.



Thanks. I thought that marked inversions were more a winter thing.

In this case, it doesn't look as if there will be an easterly component,
as at 10 days out both GFS and ECM currently show an anticyclone centred
close to southern England. (That location could quickly change in future
runs, of course.) At this time of the year, one would expect it to be
fairly sunny, and the sun is now strong enough to warm things up nicely
by day, though the nights might still be chilly.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

John Hall Wrote in message:
In message , JohnD
writes
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The
temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the
past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are
likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal
later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to
60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something
better founded?

The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the
operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean -
and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's
been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the
potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

(Currently that's from today's 12Z run.)

but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time
of year without it being reflected at the surface.
That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions
at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the
atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa
level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that
warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are
more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels,
especially if the wind has an easterly component.


--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

On Saturday, 5 March 2016 21:07:27 UTC, Freddie wrote:
John Hall Wrote in message:
Freddie
writes
John Hall Wrote in message:
In message , JohnD
writes
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less
pessimistic for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The
temperature summary for instance now seems to have changed over the
past day or so from essentially more of the same to 'Temperatures are
likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal
later' for mid-month on, with next weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a
slight change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to
60/40 the other and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something
better founded?

The GFS first picked up on this a couple of days ago - first with the
operational run and after a day or so reflected in the ensemble mean -
and, while one wouldn't normally put much reliance that far out, it's
been showing the warmth very consistently from run to run. There's the
potential for it to become not just mild but positively warm. See:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

(Currently that's from today's 12Z run.)

but it could hardly be that warm at that altitude at this time
of year without it being reflected at the surface.
That's not true. There can be very marked temperature inversions
at any time of the year in the lowest few thousand feet of the
atmosphere. Temperatures can be increased markedly at the 850hPa
level just through descent, so it doesn't necessarily follow that
warmth at 850hPa translates to warmth at ground level. You are
more likely than not to see a cold undercut at low levels,
especially if the wind has an easterly component.



Thanks. I thought that marked inversions were more a winter thing.
At the surface, yes. A few thousand feet off the surface they can
appear any time of the year.

In this case, it doesn't look as if there will be an easterly component,
as at 10 days out both GFS and ECM currently show an anticyclone centred
close to southern England.
If there is an anticyclone present, then it is likely that there
was descent occurring as it formed, which illustrates my point
above.

At this time of the year, one would expect it to be
fairly sunny, and the sun is now strong enough to warm things up nicely
by day
But the amount of warming won't be affected by temperatures at
850hPa - the sun isn't _that_ strong in March. Maybe in June or
July.

--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones



--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Depends on the cloudiness of the anticyclonic situation.
Inversion topped boundary layer can warm nicely even at this time of the year,
at least down here in S. Devon. Warming from the surface and entrainment from above.
Lovely today. Had some nice cloud streets.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon