On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations in solar radiation.


Stephen.

On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:34:27 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude
Weather?'. The conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 ,
an article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument
that a pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper
winds had been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds
increased. This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in
the upper atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period
of Arctic warming ended with a series of severe winters in
Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing
of the jet-stream will result from differential warming between
the Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists
who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their
ignorance of atmospheric dynamics may again save their
forecasting bacon as far as the weather is concerned. Perhaps
two wrongs will again make a right as they did during the first
half of the twentieth century..

=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time
that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations
in solar radiation.


Yes, I must say I kept getting a feeling of deja vu when I read it.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 5:34:28 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations in solar radiation.


Stephen.

Graham and Stephen,

Thanks for finding that article. I am a great fan of C.E.P. Brooks since reading his book "Climate through the Ages" reviewed he http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...tb05488.x/epdf (You may need to login to the RMetSoc website to access it.)

The book begins by discussing the Arctic sea ice and concludes that if the temperature rises by 2C then the ice will melt completely. The rise in temperature since 1950 in the Arctic is currently much greater than that. But the scientists don't seem to have reinvented that discovery :-(

Cheers, Alastair.