At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.

Still - weather looking much better (at least in the south) from Thurs.

Lucky Stithian's Show was yesterday, it would be a bit muddy this morning.

Graham
Penzance

On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 09:25:43 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.

Still - weather looking much better (at least in the south) from Thurs.

Lucky Stithian's Show was yesterday, it would be a bit muddy this morning.

The alternative Pembroke dangler is the jellyfish front. As the residual pink mice are swept into the Norwegian Sea, an approaching blocked system is showing us its dangly bits.

The "delta n" rapidly gains a crossed tee. By t+36 it is a Portuguese Man O War complete with thundery bits. And we know (by now, surely?) where the tail is going and how radically it affects the likes of me.

On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 12:07:30 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 09:25:43 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.

Still - weather looking much better (at least in the south) from Thurs.

Lucky Stithian's Show was yesterday, it would be a bit muddy this morning.

The alternative Pembroke dangler is the jellyfish front. As the residual pink mice are swept into the Norwegian Sea, an approaching blocked system is showing us its dangly bits.

The "delta n" rapidly gains a crossed tee. By t+36 it is a Portuguese Man O War complete with thundery bits. And we know (by now, surely?) where the tail is going and how radically it affects the likes of me.

Now give us the cryptic version.

On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 12:15:13 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 12:07:30 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 09:25:43 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins.. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.

Still - weather looking much better (at least in the south) from Thurs.

Lucky Stithian's Show was yesterday, it would be a bit muddy this morning.

The alternative Pembroke dangler is the jellyfish front. As the residual pink mice are swept into the Norwegian Sea, an approaching blocked system is showing us its dangly bits.

The "delta n" rapidly gains a crossed tee. By t+36 it is a Portuguese Man O War complete with thundery bits. And we know (by now, surely?) where the tail is going and how radically it affects the likes of me.

Now give us the cryptic version.

Easy:
"Recent events on the Tajikistan-Xinjiang border would fit the bill. Such seismic energy has produced a line or arc of earthquakes from both the North Atlantic and the islands of Indonesia - meeting at the borders of the Asian countries above.

The recent tropical storm is also coupled with that -as is the line of storms extended out through North America."

You really should extend your online presence the libraries are not random.

On Tuesday, 12 July 2016 13:03:44 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:


You really should extend your online presence, the libraries are not random.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...2016/index.php
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/160628_rpts.html

"Freddie" wrote in message
...
Graham Easterling Wrote in message:

Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability
forecasts before I read it!! :-)

At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We
are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar
demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead,
there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now
09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain
that, I'd be interested.
It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a
guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point
nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting
them is the question that needs an answer...


Because it is a sea point perhaps, and in any case the test for instability
is static in time and does not advect showers, for example. Graham does not
say what the "probability of precipitation" was? I suspect that was non-zero
but not high enough to produce a symbol. The POP is derived for convection
by using a sequence of "what if" tests, e.g. if temperature was a bit
higher, for example. It is quite complex now and is not a matter of
interpolation etc. Also "nearest gridpoint" takes into account wind
direction, thus the actual nearest is given far less weight if its wind is
blowing away from the site. An "intelligent interpolation" is used from
surrounding points. Cornwall being a peninsula presents all sorts of
problems, however.

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Freddie wrote:

Graham Easterling Wrote in message:

Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability
forecasts before I read it!! :-)

At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We
are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar
demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead,
there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now
09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain
that, I'd be interested.
It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a
guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point
nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting
them is the question that needs an answer...

Because it ain't good enough to do reliable forecasting that has a high level
of precision in both time and space simultaneously. At least, that is my
experience for my part of the country. By far the best short-range forecasting
tool is the high-resolution (time and space) radar imagery.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:24:20 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Graham Easterling Wrote in message:

Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability
forecasts before I read it!! :-)

At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.
It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a
guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point
nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting
them is the question that needs an answer...

--
Freddie

Yes, that's the point Freddie. The forecast was showing a showery front, the radar was a mass of showers streaming in from the NW, so it's how the model came up with a 5% chance of rain that's the mystery, when the models where clearly predicting plenty of showers.

Still, some very pleasant sunshine this afternoon following a heavy shower 11:30.

Graham
Penzance

Because it is a sea point perhaps, and in any case the test for instability
is static in time and does not advect showers, for example. Graham does not
say what the "probability of precipitation" was? I suspect that was non-zero

Yes I did, 5% for most spots in west Cornwall, even those where it was currently throwing it down.

Graham

On Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:42:00 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Freddie wrote:

Graham Easterling Wrote in message:

Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability
forecasts before I read it!! :-)

At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins.. We
are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar
demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead,
there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now
09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain
that, I'd be interested.
It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a
guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point
nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting
them is the question that needs an answer...

Because it ain't good enough to do reliable forecasting that has a high level
of precision in both time and space simultaneously. At least, that is my
experience for my part of the country. By far the best short-range forecasting
tool is the high-resolution (time and space) radar imagery.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Absolutely agree. But the 5% chance of rain was at variance with all other aspects of the forecast. I fully realise that this is an automated generalised model forecast, but if the model shows a showery trough bang overhead, how come the rainfall % chance doesn't reflect this? After all the air was seriously unstable, so very impressive Cb, over the sea as well as the land. (SST now 16C)

As it happens, currently yet another heavy shower, the 4th or 5th today - precipitation chance still 5%.

Hopefully like this again on Thursday http://www.cornwallcam.co.uk/

Graham
Penzance