On 16/07/2016 07:46, N_Cook wrote:
I assume it will be a meteotsunami associated with a passing cold front.
At least knowing of it in advance will give a chance to grab data about it
http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/la...port=Sheerness
and other south North Sea ports .
With anticyclonic general status and lack of isobars, the sea level
should be depressed a bit below nominal 1013mB level.
Otherwise of no flooding consequnce as only neap tides at the moment.
You get so used to surges being developed by low pressure systems and
then west or east suges in the English Channel

Other instances of meteotsunami
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016...sea-stonehaven


more detail of the events referred to in that newspaper article
From the Times, the 1892 event was a double earthquake generated
tsunami, timings of the quake at different stations given, felt in Wales
and whole of the SW .
1929 was meteotsunami associated with anticyclone Azores to Denmark and
heatwave, 95 deg F max in Paris, 87degF max in London.
18degF sudden drop in temperature recorded at Winchester, generated
series of 8 x 12 foot waves at Folkstone and a 20 foot wave Hastings,
Sandown IoW got a bank of sand swept along the seafront.

Both 2015 and 2011 events have been analysed in Weather magazine
apparently.
The main amplification suggested for the 2015 event is that the waves
generated by the storm(s) were in shallow water (compared to the
wavelength) and therefore travelled at a speed determined by the depth
which happened to be similar to the speed of movement of the convective
event in the atmosphere.

I've not rediscovered the newspaper details of the 2011
event, "hair-raising" and lightning associated with the tsunami going
over a causeway in the SW somewhere


2011 event
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/highli...gland2011.html

1929 event
In the Southampton Echo newspaper archives, the following monday, 22
July 1929, a lot of reportage of deaths and mayem from rain and
lightning the Saturday evening, but little met or marine info. Just
"tidal waves of considerable extent" and
Southampton met report of 0.81 inches of rain fell during the storm and
barometer showed "violent fluctuations" during the storm .

Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?

On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.
The west coast tide gauges are picking it up now, but meteorologically
don't know its origins. Perhaps started off Scandinavia as that trough,
then just North Sea bathynmetric funnelling effect and enhanced later on
by Cape/Latent Heat instability over East anglia.
Anyone know of any live feed web cams , birdwatchers? over Essex/Kent
mudflats , .5m drop and rise over a short period would look impressive.

On 16/07/2016 11:42, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.
The west coast tide gauges are picking it up now, but meteorologically
don't know its origins. Perhaps started off Scandinavia as that trough,
then just North Sea bathynmetric funnelling effect and enhanced later on
by Cape/Latent Heat instability over East anglia.
Anyone know of any live feed web cams , birdwatchers? over Essex/Kent
mudflats , .5m drop and rise over a short period would look impressive.

For West Coast read East Coast

Publically available model outputs are too a low resolution but do they
hint at a mini LOW developing Dogger area as part of the instabiity
over East Anglia late afternoon?

On 16/07/2016 12:43, N_Cook wrote:
Publically available model outputs are too a low resolution but do they
hint at a mini LOW developing Dogger area as part of the instabiity
over East Anglia late afternoon?


So in the end just the normal "meteo-surge" not tsunami, the
Scandinavian origin from a very minor trough passage there and then
continuity "push" by another trough over the UK disguised it, not a
spontaneously occuring atmospheric event over the Dogger as origin.
Once these surges start , they travel for 100s if not 1000s of miles.
At least it shows why there are such a lot of anomolous "surge" events
Sheerness way (remember 1953 Canvey Island the most estreme example),
the shelving effect of the Dogger and general south North Sea funnelling

On Saturday, 16 July 2016 11:42:22 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.

What sort of physics did they have when you were at school the dawlish sort of stuff dawlish is recommending?

On Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 3:13:11 PM UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 11:42:22 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.

What sort of physics did they have when you were at school the dawlish sort of stuff dawlish is recommending?

Utterly obsessed with little old me. Norman's information here is excellent. You, W, know so little.