On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.
The west coast tide gauges are picking it up now, but meteorologically
don't know its origins. Perhaps started off Scandinavia as that trough,
then just North Sea bathynmetric funnelling effect and enhanced later on
by Cape/Latent Heat instability over East anglia.
Anyone know of any live feed web cams , birdwatchers? over Essex/Kent
mudflats , .5m drop and rise over a short period would look impressive.

On 16/07/2016 11:42, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.
The west coast tide gauges are picking it up now, but meteorologically
don't know its origins. Perhaps started off Scandinavia as that trough,
then just North Sea bathynmetric funnelling effect and enhanced later on
by Cape/Latent Heat instability over East anglia.
Anyone know of any live feed web cams , birdwatchers? over Essex/Kent
mudflats , .5m drop and rise over a short period would look impressive.

For West Coast read East Coast

Publically available model outputs are too a low resolution but do they
hint at a mini LOW developing Dogger area as part of the instabiity
over East Anglia late afternoon?

On 16/07/2016 12:43, N_Cook wrote:
Publically available model outputs are too a low resolution but do they
hint at a mini LOW developing Dogger area as part of the instabiity
over East Anglia late afternoon?


So in the end just the normal "meteo-surge" not tsunami, the
Scandinavian origin from a very minor trough passage there and then
continuity "push" by another trough over the UK disguised it, not a
spontaneously occuring atmospheric event over the Dogger as origin.
Once these surges start , they travel for 100s if not 1000s of miles.
At least it shows why there are such a lot of anomolous "surge" events
Sheerness way (remember 1953 Canvey Island the most estreme example),
the shelving effect of the Dogger and general south North Sea funnelling

On Saturday, 16 July 2016 11:42:22 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.

What sort of physics did they have when you were at school the dawlish sort of stuff dawlish is recommending?

On Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 3:13:11 PM UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 11:42:22 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/07/2016 11:32, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 16 July 2016 09:57:45 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Surface Based CAPE output of GFS model is showing anomolous instability
over the Thames Estuary area later today, what to look out for on the
hourly near realtime geopotential plots later today, a travelling kink?

Has the Thames barrier been raised?


Its of no flooding consequence, just a rare meteorological induced effect.

What sort of physics did they have when you were at school the dawlish sort of stuff dawlish is recommending?

Utterly obsessed with little old me. Norman's information here is excellent. You, W, know so little.