Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.

On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 19:01:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

Pretty certain the depression shown yesterday, and today, on charts for c. Aug 31 is Gaston.

J.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 19:01:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

That's what I'd seen. Commentary here made me question! TY.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 11:19:04 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

I think It's Fiona. gfs has had it on its radar from T+324 and it is still solidly there at 10 days. As it is also there on both the ECM and GEM and has been for several days, I would say that the chances of that level of detail (i.e. the remnants of Fiona approaching the UK at 10 days) is high and indeed that the scenario is likely, Norman.

On 23/08/2016 15:56, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 11:19:04 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

I think It's Fiona. gfs has had it on its radar from T+324 and it is still solidly there at 10 days. As it is also there on both the ECM and GEM and has been for several days, I would say that the chances of that level of detail (i.e. the remnants of Fiona approaching the UK at 10 days) is high and indeed that the scenario is likely, Norman.


For the first 2 days of NHC track projections , I make the separation
between Fiona and Gaston
24 Aug 0000Z 2090 miles , + 1day 1910 miles, + 2day 1550 miles.
Anyone going to open a book for the race over the Atlantic?

On 23/08/2016 17:00, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 15:56, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 11:19:04 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a
fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then
something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of
getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty
small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

I think It's Fiona. gfs has had it on its radar from T+324 and it is
still solidly there at 10 days. As it is also there on both the ECM
and GEM and has been for several days, I would say that the chances of
that level of detail (i.e. the remnants of Fiona approaching the UK at
10 days) is high and indeed that the scenario is likely, Norman.


For the first 2 days of NHC track projections , I make the separation
between Fiona and Gaston
24 Aug 0000Z 2090 miles , + 1day 1910 miles, + 2day 1550 miles.
Anyone going to open a book for the race over the Atlantic?


For 2day read 2.5day
I didn't notice the step-change in the NHC tables