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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org |
#2
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On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine |
#3
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On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote: Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way. J. |
#4
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On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote: On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote: Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way. J. Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts. |
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#6
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#7
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#8
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On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 11:19:04 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org I think It's Fiona. gfs has had it on its radar from T+324 and it is still solidly there at 10 days. As it is also there on both the ECM and GEM and has been for several days, I would say that the chances of that level of detail (i.e. the remnants of Fiona approaching the UK at 10 days) is high and indeed that the scenario is likely, Norman. |
#10
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On 23/08/2016 17:00, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 15:56, wrote: On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 11:19:04 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote: Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye towards Hermine. I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like 600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small. Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org I think It's Fiona. gfs has had it on its radar from T+324 and it is still solidly there at 10 days. As it is also there on both the ECM and GEM and has been for several days, I would say that the chances of that level of detail (i.e. the remnants of Fiona approaching the UK at 10 days) is high and indeed that the scenario is likely, Norman. For the first 2 days of NHC track projections , I make the separation between Fiona and Gaston 24 Aug 0000Z 2090 miles , + 1day 1910 miles, + 2day 1550 miles. Anyone going to open a book for the race over the Atlantic? For 2day read 2.5day I didn't notice the step-change in the NHC tables |
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