An interesting report he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...ialoscillation

I'm not sure what the longer-term implications may be, if any.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 10:37:10 AM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
An interesting report he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...ialoscillation

I'm not sure what the longer-term implications may be, if any.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

There is a comment on the paper in Science he http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/...-winter-europe

In case it is behind a paywall I have copied an extract below:

"When the QBO winds are in a westerly phase, pressure differences over the North Atlantic tend to be more extreme. That strengthens the jet stream and boosts the chances that northern Europe will experience warmer, stormier winters like this past one, which brought floods to the United Kingdom. The expected easterly phase at the end of this year would have given northern Europe a good shot at a colder, drier winter. Instead, the return to westerly winds means that Europeans are more likely to see another stormy winter."

Not snow but more floods this winter?

Cheers, Alastair.

I had better get some snow clearing equipment then!

When things like this are announced so far ahead, then things always do the opposite.

C



On Friday, 9 September 2016 10:37:10 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
An interesting report he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...ialoscillation

I'm not sure what the longer-term implications may be, if any.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On Friday, 9 September 2016 10:55:30 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:
On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 10:37:10 AM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
An interesting report he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...ialoscillation

I'm not sure what the longer-term implications may be, if any.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

There is a comment on the paper in Science he http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/...-winter-europe

In case it is behind a paywall I have copied an extract below:

"When the QBO winds are in a westerly phase, pressure differences over the North Atlantic tend to be more extreme. That strengthens the jet stream and boosts the chances that northern Europe will experience warmer, stormier winters like this past one, which brought floods to the United Kingdom. The expected easterly phase at the end of this year would have given northern Europe a good shot at a colder, drier winter. Instead, the return to westerly winds means that Europeans are more likely to see another stormy winter.."

Not snow but more floods this winter?

The utility of making something appear to be valuable vss the availability of wisdom that actually is:
http://biblehub.com/niv/job/38.htm
But nobody reads stuff like that theses days, god should charge entrancers fees.

On Friday, 9 September 2016 13:12:39 UTC+1, Crusader wrote:
I had better get some snow clearing equipment then!

When things like this are announced so far ahead, then things always do the opposite.

C



On Friday, 9 September 2016 10:37:10 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
An interesting report he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/rel...ialoscillation

I'm not sure what the longer-term implications may be, if any.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Very interesting Norman.

I don't think there is any correlation of the QBO with winters in NW Europe.

Nobody really knows what causes the QBO. Something to do with upwardly propagating waves from the tropical troposphere. Maybe, but what causes them?
It is really difficult to see the wood from the trees with such a non linear climate system.

The present disruption in QBO has really put the cat among the pigeons.

Could it be in part due to the lack of Arctic sea ice?
But there was even less in 2012 without any disruption.

More likely something external to the climate system. Solar wind or some such thing.

Have a look at the monthly QBO values for yourself at the link below.

15 months have passed and it should have gone easterly by now. It looked as if it was going that way in April but since has gone increasingly westerly.
Something's a foot.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Len
Wembury, SW Dovon

Len: I wonder if it is to do with the 'quieter' sun? I've read a couple of past papers on this tonight but, as has been pointed out, the findings in terms of effects on NW Europe are inconclusive. I wonder, though, if a neutral QBO, coupled with a neutral ENSO would lead to the jet stream being predominantly further south over Iberia leading the UK to have much greater chance of polar incursions than has happened for the past three winters?

On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 8:09:20 PM UTC-4, Scott W wrote:
Len: I wonder if it is to do with the 'quieter' sun? I've read a couple of past papers on this tonight but, as has been pointed out, the findings in terms of effects on NW Europe are inconclusive. I wonder, though, if a neutral QBO, coupled with a neutral ENSO would lead to the jet stream being predominantly further south over Iberia leading the UK to have much greater chance of polar incursions than has happened for the past three winters?

========

There's not really a neutral phase of the QBO. Its westerly/easterly strength weakens but that's on its way to reversal to the easterly/westerly phase, so it flips from positive (westerly) to negative (easterly) and vice versa - every time we've seen it, anyway, up until this year. April 2016 saw it weakening to +0.6 at 30hPa and one would normally have expected May onwards to become negative but as pointed out the positive phase strengthened again instead.

It's been a bit of a head-scratcher in that it's not been seen in the 60 years the QBO has been monitored, and so far there is no definitive explanation. However, who is to say that the last six decades of more-or-less regular and predictable QBO are not atypical of the previous several hundred years? Having said that, the latest tentative thinking is that anomalous transportation of momentum from the Northern Hemisphere is a likely culprit; although the question then is what caused that? Something to do with the strong El Nino? Anything is speculative at the moment.

http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...cience.aah4156

Anyway, the upshot when it comes to climate predictability is that as long as it does not "misbehave" again then this winter will have a strong to very strong (westerly) QBO phase. It's one of several climate drivers that has to be considered for broad seasonal forecasts, particularly winter. It becomes more significant if other influences are weak but must still be viewed in conjunction with those.

Stephen
Indianapolis IN.

On 10/09/2016 06:16, wrote:
On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 8:09:20 PM UTC-4, Scott W wrote:
Len: I wonder if it is to do with the 'quieter' sun? I've read a couple of past papers on this tonight but, as has been pointed out, the findings in terms of effects on NW Europe are inconclusive. I wonder, though, if a neutral QBO, coupled with a neutral ENSO would lead to the jet stream being predominantly further south over Iberia leading the UK to have much greater chance of polar incursions than has happened for the past three winters?

========

There's not really a neutral phase of the QBO. Its westerly/easterly strength weakens but that's on its way to reversal to the easterly/westerly phase, so it flips from positive (westerly) to negative (easterly) and vice versa - every time we've seen it, anyway, up until this year. April 2016 saw it weakening to +0.6 at 30hPa and one would normally have expected May onwards to become negative but as pointed out the positive phase strengthened again instead.

It's been a bit of a head-scratcher in that it's not been seen in the 60 years the QBO has been monitored, and so far there is no definitive explanation. However, who is to say that the last six decades of more-or-less regular and predictable QBO are not atypical of the previous several hundred years? Having said that, the latest tentative thinking is that anomalous transportation of momentum from the Northern Hemisphere is a likely culprit; although the question then is what caused that? Something to do with the strong El Nino? Anything is speculative at the moment.

http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...cience.aah4156

Anyway, the upshot when it comes to climate predictability is that as long as it does not "misbehave" again then this winter will have a strong to very strong (westerly) QBO phase. It's one of several climate drivers that has to be considered for broad seasonal forecasts, particularly winter. It becomes more significant if other influences are weak but must still be viewed in conjunction with those.

Stephen
Indianapolis IN.


Probably just a coincidence , but for the last half year , the
astronomic motions that determine the tides have been showing an odd
behaviour, AFAIK not seen in many decades/ever?. This is fully
deterministic, but I'm not privelidged in knowing the full set of
harmonics that are cosined and summed together to produce the tidal
output determinations, and so no knowledge of what is astronomically
sync'd/misync'd/aligned/misaligned this year.
Its meant that instead of Southampton having its famous double high tide
in 2 hours per 12.3 hour cycle, we sometimes now get 3 or 4 high tides
spread over 3 hours.
Just a thought, someone else might have some input on this phenomenom

On 10/09/2016 07:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/09/2016 06:16, wrote:
On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 8:09:20 PM UTC-4, Scott W wrote:
Len: I wonder if it is to do with the 'quieter' sun? I've read a
couple of past papers on this tonight but, as has been pointed out,
the findings in terms of effects on NW Europe are inconclusive. I
wonder, though, if a neutral QBO, coupled with a neutral ENSO would
lead to the jet stream being predominantly further south over Iberia
leading the UK to have much greater chance of polar incursions than
has happened for the past three winters?

========

There's not really a neutral phase of the QBO. Its westerly/easterly
strength weakens but that's on its way to reversal to the
easterly/westerly phase, so it flips from positive (westerly) to
negative (easterly) and vice versa - every time we've seen it, anyway,
up until this year. April 2016 saw it weakening to +0.6 at 30hPa and
one would normally have expected May onwards to become negative but as
pointed out the positive phase strengthened again instead.

It's been a bit of a head-scratcher in that it's not been seen in the
60 years the QBO has been monitored, and so far there is no definitive
explanation. However, who is to say that the last six decades of
more-or-less regular and predictable QBO are not atypical of the
previous several hundred years? Having said that, the latest tentative
thinking is that anomalous transportation of momentum from the
Northern Hemisphere is a likely culprit; although the question then is
what caused that? Something to do with the strong El Nino? Anything is
speculative at the moment.

http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...cience.aah4156

Anyway, the upshot when it comes to climate predictability is that as
long as it does not "misbehave" again then this winter will have a
strong to very strong (westerly) QBO phase. It's one of several
climate drivers that has to be considered for broad seasonal
forecasts, particularly winter. It becomes more significant if other
influences are weak but must still be viewed in conjunction with those.

Stephen
Indianapolis IN.


Probably just a coincidence , but for the last half year , the
astronomic motions that determine the tides have been showing an odd
behaviour, AFAIK not seen in many decades/ever?. This is fully
deterministic, but I'm not privelidged in knowing the full set of
harmonics that are cosined and summed together to produce the tidal
output determinations, and so no knowledge of what is astronomically
sync'd/misync'd/aligned/misaligned this year.

I don't think the tidal forcing has been all that exception this year.
Allignement has been good for eclipses with a lunar and annular solar
eclipse a fortnight apart. But an annular eclipse gives weaker tidal
forcing than a true total eclipse when the moon is closer.

This is the tidal forcing diagram from Keeling & Whorf's paper
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814/F1.large.jpg

1974 was pretty special and ISTR ~2032 will be too.

Full paper:
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full

I think they were probably right that tidal forcing (and resonances in
the oceans) plays a bigger part in deep mixing than is generally
acknowledged. My hunch is that there are periodic drivers related to the
29 year and 18.6 year eclipse repeat periods and multiples thereof.

Its meant that instead of Southampton having its famous double high tide
in 2 hours per 12.3 hour cycle, we sometimes now get 3 or 4 high tides
spread over 3 hours.
Just a thought, someone else might have some input on this phenomenom

That is more of an artefact of the UK being in a funny place just off
the coast of Europe with a narrow channel separating them.

I was astonished at just how atypical our huge tidal range is when
compared to somewhere like Iceland in the mid Atlantic.

Regards,
Martin Brown

On Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 8:15:34 AM UTC+1, Martin Brown wrote:
On 10/09/2016 07:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 10/09/2016 06:16, wrote:
On Friday, September 9, 2016 at 8:09:20 PM UTC-4, Scott W wrote:
Len: I wonder if it is to do with the 'quieter' sun? I've read a
couple of past papers on this tonight but, as has been pointed out,
the findings in terms of effects on NW Europe are inconclusive. I
wonder, though, if a neutral QBO, coupled with a neutral ENSO would
lead to the jet stream being predominantly further south over Iberia
leading the UK to have much greater chance of polar incursions than
has happened for the past three winters?

========

There's not really a neutral phase of the QBO. Its westerly/easterly
strength weakens but that's on its way to reversal to the
easterly/westerly phase, so it flips from positive (westerly) to
negative (easterly) and vice versa - every time we've seen it, anyway,
up until this year. April 2016 saw it weakening to +0.6 at 30hPa and
one would normally have expected May onwards to become negative but as
pointed out the positive phase strengthened again instead.

It's been a bit of a head-scratcher in that it's not been seen in the
60 years the QBO has been monitored, and so far there is no definitive
explanation. However, who is to say that the last six decades of
more-or-less regular and predictable QBO are not atypical of the
previous several hundred years? Having said that, the latest tentative
thinking is that anomalous transportation of momentum from the
Northern Hemisphere is a likely culprit; although the question then is
what caused that? Something to do with the strong El Nino? Anything is
speculative at the moment.

http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...cience.aah4156

Anyway, the upshot when it comes to climate predictability is that as
long as it does not "misbehave" again then this winter will have a
strong to very strong (westerly) QBO phase. It's one of several
climate drivers that has to be considered for broad seasonal
forecasts, particularly winter. It becomes more significant if other
influences are weak but must still be viewed in conjunction with those..

Stephen
Indianapolis IN.


Probably just a coincidence , but for the last half year , the
astronomic motions that determine the tides have been showing an odd
behaviour, AFAIK not seen in many decades/ever?. This is fully
deterministic, but I'm not privelidged in knowing the full set of
harmonics that are cosined and summed together to produce the tidal
output determinations, and so no knowledge of what is astronomically
sync'd/misync'd/aligned/misaligned this year.

I don't think the tidal forcing has been all that exception this year.
Allignement has been good for eclipses with a lunar and annular solar
eclipse a fortnight apart. But an annular eclipse gives weaker tidal
forcing than a true total eclipse when the moon is closer.

This is the tidal forcing diagram from Keeling & Whorf's paper
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814/F1.large.jpg

1974 was pretty special and ISTR ~2032 will be too.

Full paper:
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full

I think they were probably right that tidal forcing (and resonances in
the oceans) plays a bigger part in deep mixing than is generally
acknowledged. My hunch is that there are periodic drivers related to the
29 year and 18.6 year eclipse repeat periods and multiples thereof.

Its meant that instead of Southampton having its famous double high tide
in 2 hours per 12.3 hour cycle, we sometimes now get 3 or 4 high tides
spread over 3 hours.
Just a thought, someone else might have some input on this phenomenom

That is more of an artefact of the UK being in a funny place just off
the coast of Europe with a narrow channel separating them.

I was astonished at just how atypical our huge tidal range is when
compared to somewhere like Iceland in the mid Atlantic.

Regards,
Martin Brown

For those who are not aware, because of the continents the tides act very differently to the theoretical astronomic effect shown in text books, 2 nice neat bulges of water. In reality the tides flop around in oceans, like water in a bath. Because of the coriolis force, the tides end up rotating around amphidromic points, where there is essentially no tide. There are 2 such points in the N Atlantic, one of which is to the SW of Iceland.

The biggest tides are furthest from these points where funnelling takes place, the Severn being a fairly extreme example.

Graham
Penzance - Lovely gentle bright morning with little breeze, ideal for a lazy swim.