On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

My particular interest is marine flooding situations.
GEM all looks rather dramatic for that highmost spring tides time.
Starting 13 Oct with a local system in the North Sea , then Matthew
inspired lows extending across the Atlantic, presumably out to 16 Oct,
with all the consequential ocean-wide inverse-barometer sea-water doming
, coming our way. With only 550dam geopotential tongue in the way
ECMWF staying with benign, if ECMWF pulls the path eastwards, away from
US land, then that model may go back to this sort of scenario again.
Seeing the BBC n ch, 21:54 extended weather spot I was wondering how
Mathew's later track would guarantee extension of the Scandinavian
anti-cyclone block. So I suppose it comes down to whether Matthew stays
out in the Atlantic, for continued vigour and developing a later
eastward track

I see Nicole is now in on the act

Is GFS now having a problem with Matthew, seemingly stuck in the
Caribbean area for 10 days. Is this Matthew system outside the comfort
zones of the main dynamic models

N_Cook wrote:

On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

My particular interest is marine flooding situations.
GEM all looks rather dramatic for that highmost spring tides time.
Starting 13 Oct with a local system in the North Sea , then Matthew inspired
lows extending across the Atlantic, presumably out to 16 Oct, with all the
consequential ocean-wide inverse-barometer sea-water doming , coming our way.
With only 550dam geopotential tongue in the way ECMWF staying with benign, if
ECMWF pulls the path eastwards, away from US land, then that model may go
back to this sort of scenario again. Seeing the BBC n ch, 21:54 extended
weather spot I was wondering how Mathew's later track would guarantee
extension of the Scandinavian anti-cyclone block. So I suppose it comes down
to whether Matthew stays out in the Atlantic, for continued vigour and
developing a later eastward track

The atmospheric pressure looks like remaining relatively high in the vicinity
of the British Isles. Any inverse barometer effect over the ocean will have no
effect on sea level around the British Isles. Even over the ocean the pressure
isn't expected to be unduly low and with the inverse barometer effect producing
only about 1cm rise in sea level for each millibar fall in pressure the effect
will be relatively small. Coastal flooding occurs primarily when the tidal
flood stream is enhanced by very strong winds blowing in the same direction,
especially when this occurs around spring tides.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

On Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:25:23 +0100, N_Cook wrote:


Is GFS now having a problem with Matthew, seemingly stuck in the
Caribbean area for 10 days. Is this Matthew system outside the comfort
zones of the main dynamic models

Three days ago, early on Monday, Jeff Masters of Wunderground reported
thus:

"Beyond midweek, the outlook for Matthew remains fairly murky. The
operational runs of the GFS and European models both take Matthew on a
curving northeastward path that parallels the Southeast U.S. coast,
drawing within 100 miles of the North Carolina coast by Saturday or
Sunday before moving further offshore.

The 12Z Sunday UKMET model--the other of our best three track
models--is the outlier, bringing Matthew northwest from the Bahamas
toward central Florida by next weekend."

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...=2016&month=10
search the page for "Bahamas and beyond".

Kudos to the UKMet model for being the first to identify the Florida
threat.

--
Dave
Fareham (W)

On 06/10/2016 14:26, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:25:23 +0100, N_Cook wrote:


Is GFS now having a problem with Matthew, seemingly stuck in the
Caribbean area for 10 days. Is this Matthew system outside the comfort
zones of the main dynamic models

Three days ago, early on Monday, Jeff Masters of Wunderground reported
thus:

"Beyond midweek, the outlook for Matthew remains fairly murky. The
operational runs of the GFS and European models both take Matthew on a
curving northeastward path that parallels the Southeast U.S. coast,
drawing within 100 miles of the North Carolina coast by Saturday or
Sunday before moving further offshore.

The 12Z Sunday UKMET model--the other of our best three track
models--is the outlier, bringing Matthew northwest from the Bahamas
toward central Florida by next weekend."

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je...=2016&month=10
search the page for "Bahamas and beyond".

Kudos to the UKMet model for being the first to identify the Florida
threat.


Nicole has now been declared a huricane, will Matthew and Nicole
interqct/coalesce?

Interesting NHC historicl footnote
"A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now."

On Fri, 07 Oct 2016 08:04:59 +0100, N_Cook wrote:

Interesting NHC historicl footnote
"A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now."


In the last hour BBC Radio 5 interviewed an American weather
presenter/forecaster. It was mentioned that the modeling is suggesting
that Matthew will move away from Florida and then make a u-turn and come
back for a second bite.

--
Using Opera Mail: http://www.opera.com/computer/mail

On 07/10/2016 17:45, Tim wrote:
On Fri, 07 Oct 2016 08:04:59 +0100, N_Cook wrote:

Interesting NHC historicl footnote
"A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now."


In the last hour BBC Radio 5 interviewed an American weather
presenter/forecaster. It was mentioned that the modeling is suggesting
that Matthew will move away from Florida and then make a u-turn and come
back for a second bite.

Is that normal?
I know that hurricanes sometimes make loops but thought that tended to
be at more southerly latitudes, in fact I think Matthew himself made a
small one near the coast of Columbia. I thought that once they got up as
far north as the Carolinas they would inevitably get swept up in the
generally westerly regime and of course become extra-tropical.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

"Col" wrote in message ...

Is that normal?

Not typical I'm sure, but if you watch the latest TropicalTidbits video link
that I mentioned at the top of this thread then you'll see that a meander
further south again at the weekend been there as a possibility for several
days now.