N_Cook wrote:

On 09/10/2016 07:19, Vidcapper wrote:
On 08/10/2016 20:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

ECMWF has the latest output , sending the remnant of Matthew and Nicole,

Or maybe offspring?

straight across the atlantic for this highest spring tide period of 16
to 18 October.

If so, get the sandbags ready!



Nicole with or without Matthew remnant ( NHC separation currently 900 miles
projected halving to 480 miles in a couple of days, projected separation
still closing then). With the GEM triplet of 6 hourly synoptic charts to
midday 17 Oct I've run my own crafted, geostrophic wind conversion --
Geernaert wind stress -- residual app , on those plots and have got 1 foot
of seawater in a local residential road, Southampton. PLP measures should be
in place, (problems wiht sump and pump inductive-load trip of circuit
breakers though, at the limit of domestic mains powered motors). My app can
only assume, worst-case, maximum residual (surge) is coincident with high
tide, usually is near enough. The GEM run of that time does not include any
input from Nicole+Matthew. In a couple of days time with a bit more model
consistency I'll get a better idea of what is in store oceanographically
speaking

Not really sure where you're coming from on this. As I see it the models aren't
predicting any particularly strong winds in the Channel over the next 10 days
and the atmospheric pressure over the Channel isn't predicted to be lower than
about 1008 mb. Or am I missing something?

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

On 09/10/2016 20:10, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 09/10/2016 07:19, Vidcapper wrote:
On 08/10/2016 20:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

ECMWF has the latest output , sending the remnant of Matthew and Nicole,

Or maybe offspring?

straight across the atlantic for this highest spring tide period of 16
to 18 October.

If so, get the sandbags ready!



Nicole with or without Matthew remnant ( NHC separation currently 900 miles
projected halving to 480 miles in a couple of days, projected separation
still closing then). With the GEM triplet of 6 hourly synoptic charts to
midday 17 Oct I've run my own crafted, geostrophic wind conversion --
Geernaert wind stress -- residual app , on those plots and have got 1 foot
of seawater in a local residential road, Southampton. PLP measures should be
in place, (problems wiht sump and pump inductive-load trip of circuit
breakers though, at the limit of domestic mains powered motors). My app can
only assume, worst-case, maximum residual (surge) is coincident with high
tide, usually is near enough. The GEM run of that time does not include any
input from Nicole+Matthew. In a couple of days time with a bit more model
consistency I'll get a better idea of what is in store oceanographically
speaking

Not really sure where you're coming from on this. As I see it the models aren't
predicting any particularly strong winds in the Channel over the next 10 days
and the atmospheric pressure over the Channel isn't predicted to be lower than
about 1008 mb. Or am I missing something?


It does seem to be only the less insightful Canadian model persisting
with a local LOW on 17 Oct
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme...mode=0&carte=0
If still there , virtually, tomorrow I'll rerun my app as tonights GEM
looks stronger wind in the approaches and channel proper, than this
morning run.
Not much of a low but it shows that on top of the highest of spring
tides, does not need much residual to cause local residential flooding,
if not defended against.

On Sunday, 9 October 2016 21:32:09 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:

Not much of a low but it shows that on top of the highest of spring
tides, does not need much residual to cause local residential flooding,
if not defended against.

TSR wrote it off just now as dissipated. I think they mean no longer tropical its core is still the same size and doing 90+ kph in places:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...-73.983,36.169

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...-64.144,24.663

The Spanish may be seeing the end of this run but it could get deep into the Med. I wonder if it intends to wake Sillisea.

On Monday, 3 October 2016 09:40:39 UTC+1, JohnD wrote:
Surprisingly few comments on Matthew here. Also, I may have missed it but
haven't spotted any links to this site:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Despite its connotations of tinned pineapple or girlie magazines from
yesteryear this is actually a sober and extended daily summary of Matthew
status and forecasts - I'm guessing from an amateur perspective, but a
pretty well-informed one seemingly.



Poor Old Matthew
The Loony Leftists Holy Grail
Cat 3 at the Best
Oh Listen to them Wail


NB: This AGW driven catastrophic monster hits (well offshore) and is so devastating that we only see images from Haiti. Ouch how reality must hurt

On Sunday, 9 October 2016 23:48:23 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Monday, 3 October 2016 09:40:39 UTC+1, JohnD wrote:
Surprisingly few comments on Matthew here. Also, I may have missed it but
haven't spotted any links to this site:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Despite its connotations of tinned pineapple or girlie magazines from
yesteryear this is actually a sober and extended daily summary of Matthew
status and forecasts - I'm guessing from an amateur perspective, but a
pretty well-informed one seemingly.



Poor Old Matthew
The Loony Leftists Holy Grail
Cat 3 at the Best
Oh Listen to them Wail


NB: This AGW driven catastrophic monster hits (well offshore) and is so devastating that we only see images from Haiti. Ouch how reality must hurt

This is the best the American media can do concerning a AGW devastating Hurricane

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto...orida-42680966

I mean that Stork looks like it will never deliver babies again-mind you since abortion rates have gone up many have been out of work.

GEM now pushes that 17 oct low more north.
And that was the only model to have a follow-on of bringing ex-Nicole
across the Atlantic. So NHC projected upping of her winds to 100mph in
her senescence , is keeping her to the west of the Atlantic and expiring
over there?

On Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 8:10:21 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 09/10/2016 07:19, Vidcapper wrote:
On 08/10/2016 20:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

ECMWF has the latest output , sending the remnant of Matthew and Nicole,

Or maybe offspring?

straight across the atlantic for this highest spring tide period of 16
to 18 October.

If so, get the sandbags ready!



Nicole with or without Matthew remnant ( NHC separation currently 900 miles
projected halving to 480 miles in a couple of days, projected separation
still closing then). With the GEM triplet of 6 hourly synoptic charts to
midday 17 Oct I've run my own crafted, geostrophic wind conversion --
Geernaert wind stress -- residual app , on those plots and have got 1 foot
of seawater in a local residential road, Southampton. PLP measures should be
in place, (problems wiht sump and pump inductive-load trip of circuit
breakers though, at the limit of domestic mains powered motors). My app can
only assume, worst-case, maximum residual (surge) is coincident with high
tide, usually is near enough. The GEM run of that time does not include any
input from Nicole+Matthew. In a couple of days time with a bit more model
consistency I'll get a better idea of what is in store oceanographically
speaking

Not really sure where you're coming from on this. As I see it the models aren't
predicting any particularly strong winds in the Channel over the next 10 days
and the atmospheric pressure over the Channel isn't predicted to be lower than
about 1008 mb. Or am I missing something?

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Also very little swell, http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/ certainly less than we've been used to for the whole month so far http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/Oct9.html

All looks benign to me (famous last words)

Graham
Penzance

On 10/10/2016 09:31, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 8:10:21 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 09/10/2016 07:19, Vidcapper wrote:
On 08/10/2016 20:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to Greenland , he
decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17 October is the top 0.1
percent of all astronomic tide heights at that time.

ECMWF has the latest output , sending the remnant of Matthew and Nicole,

Or maybe offspring?

straight across the atlantic for this highest spring tide period of 16
to 18 October.

If so, get the sandbags ready!



Nicole with or without Matthew remnant ( NHC separation currently 900 miles
projected halving to 480 miles in a couple of days, projected separation
still closing then). With the GEM triplet of 6 hourly synoptic charts to
midday 17 Oct I've run my own crafted, geostrophic wind conversion --
Geernaert wind stress -- residual app , on those plots and have got 1 foot
of seawater in a local residential road, Southampton. PLP measures should be
in place, (problems wiht sump and pump inductive-load trip of circuit
breakers though, at the limit of domestic mains powered motors). My app can
only assume, worst-case, maximum residual (surge) is coincident with high
tide, usually is near enough. The GEM run of that time does not include any
input from Nicole+Matthew. In a couple of days time with a bit more model
consistency I'll get a better idea of what is in store oceanographically
speaking

Not really sure where you're coming from on this. As I see it the models aren't
predicting any particularly strong winds in the Channel over the next 10 days
and the atmospheric pressure over the Channel isn't predicted to be lower than
about 1008 mb. Or am I missing something?

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Also very little swell, http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/ certainly less than we've been used to for the whole month so far http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/Oct9.html

All looks benign to me (famous last words)

Graham
Penzance



A high latitude, well north of the Azores, mid-Atlantic high looks a bit
odd sitting out there blocking the normal westerlies from coming across
this time of year, no obvious jetstream to do the blocking either.
Perhaps the late strengthening of Nicole, is not yet factored in the
models yet, and will punch through that high.

On Mon, 10 Oct 2016 11:40:15 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

On 10/10/2016 09:31, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 8:10:21 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 09/10/2016 07:19, Vidcapper wrote:
On 08/10/2016 20:03, N_Cook wrote:
On 03/10/2016 12:37, N_Cook wrote:
If after visiting Cape Cod , instead of going off to
Greenland , he decides to cross the Atlantic then on 16 & 17
October is the top 0.1 percent of all astronomic tide heights
at that time.

ECMWF has the latest output , sending the remnant of Matthew
and Nicole,

Or maybe offspring?

straight across the atlantic for this highest spring tide
period of 16 to 18 October.

If so, get the sandbags ready!



Nicole with or without Matthew remnant ( NHC separation currently
900 miles projected halving to 480 miles in a couple of days,
projected separation still closing then). With the GEM triplet
of 6 hourly synoptic charts to midday 17 Oct I've run my own
crafted, geostrophic wind conversion -- Geernaert wind stress
-- residual app , on those plots and have got 1 foot of seawater
in a local residential road, Southampton. PLP measures should be
in place, (problems wiht sump and pump inductive-load trip of
circuit breakers though, at the limit of domestic mains powered
motors). My app can only assume, worst-case, maximum residual
(surge) is coincident with high tide, usually is near enough.
The GEM run of that time does not include any input from
Nicole+Matthew. In a couple of days time with a bit more model
consistency I'll get a better idea of what is in store
oceanographically speaking

Not really sure where you're coming from on this. As I see it the
models aren't predicting any particularly strong winds in the
Channel over the next 10 days and the atmospheric pressure over
the Channel isn't predicted to be lower than about 1008 mb. Or am
I missing something?


Also very little swell,
http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/ certainly
less than we've been used to for the whole month so far
http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/Oct9.html

All looks benign to me (famous last words)

Graham
Penzance



A high latitude, well north of the Azores, mid-Atlantic high looks a
bit odd sitting out there blocking the normal westerlies from coming
across this time of year, no obvious jetstream to do the blocking
either. Perhaps the late strengthening of Nicole, is not yet factored
in the models yet, and will punch through that high.

The strengthening of Nicole has certainly been factored in the models
for a while and they have been strengthening it more than what has been
favoured by the NHC.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
My web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/