I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area due to
come into force at midday while the current weather forecast predicts no
precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the credibility of the Met
Office no good at all. Timing is very important. For example, snow very quickly
affects bus services, including the many school buses that operate to the
villages and remote farms. If there is a genuine threat of snow from midday
onwards then afternoon bus services could be disrupted. If there's nothing
before 1800 then there's no problem.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area
due to
come into force at midday while the current weather forecast predicts no
precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the credibility of the
Met
Office no good at all. Timing is very important. For example, snow very
quickly
affects bus services, including the many school buses that operate to the
villages and remote farms. If there is a genuine threat of snow from
midday
onwards then afternoon bus services could be disrupted. If there's nothing
before 1800 then there's no problem.


Automated site forecasts yesterday gave sleet in Tideswell. As far as I can
see snow will only be a problem 400 metres and above. The upper trough is
disrupting and precip will slow down as low deepens in base of trough. There
has been this trend in model runs so far. The MetO I'm afraid is going down
hill rapidly now as the last of the experienced staff retire or leave. This
is not a criticism of younger staff who are brilliant but know no other
culture than the one they have now which is working towards full automation
and where forecasting has become a fringe activity in the Met Office.
But hey, I'm a dinosaur, what do I know? (Quite a bit actually; LOL).

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Eskimo Will wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area
due to come into force at midday while the current weather forecast
predicts no precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the
credibility of the Met Office no good at all. Timing is very important.
For example, snow very quickly affects bus services, including the many
school buses that operate to the villages and remote farms. If there is a
genuine threat of snow from midday onwards then afternoon bus services
could be disrupted. If there's nothing before 1800 then there's no problem.


Automated site forecasts yesterday gave sleet in Tideswell. As far as I can
see snow will only be a problem 400 metres and above. The upper trough is
disrupting and precip will slow down as low deepens in base of trough. There
has been this trend in model runs so far. The MetO I'm afraid is going down
hill rapidly now as the last of the experienced staff retire or leave. This
is not a criticism of younger staff who are brilliant but know no other
culture than the one they have now which is working towards full automation
and where forecasting has become a fringe activity in the Met Office. But
hey, I'm a dinosaur, what do I know? (Quite a bit actually; LOL).

Will

The current automated forecast for Tideswell, issued at 1100, predicts sleet
starting at 1800 with the temp at +1C. The prediction then has it turing to
heavy snow at 2000 and continuing as heavy snow right through to 0700 tomorrow
then slight snow to 1300. The temp is predicted to fall to 0C at 2300 and
remain at 0C right through till midday tomorrow. The forecast max for tomorrow
is +1C. This one is on a knife edge for us.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

Eskimo Will wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area
due to come into force at midday while the current weather forecast
predicts no precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the
credibility of the Met Office no good at all. Timing is very important.
For example, snow very quickly affects bus services, including the many
school buses that operate to the villages and remote farms. If there is a
genuine threat of snow from midday onwards then afternoon bus services
could be disrupted. If there's nothing before 1800 then there's no problem.


Automated site forecasts yesterday gave sleet in Tideswell. As far as I can
see snow will only be a problem 400 metres and above. The upper trough is
disrupting and precip will slow down as low deepens in base of trough. There
has been this trend in model runs so far. The MetO I'm afraid is going down
hill rapidly now as the last of the experienced staff retire or leave. This
is not a criticism of younger staff who are brilliant but know no other
culture than the one they have now which is working towards full automation
and where forecasting has become a fringe activity in the Met Office. But
hey, I'm a dinosaur, what do I know? (Quite a bit actually; LOL).

Will

Automated forecast is now predicting heavy snow in Tideswell from 2000 this
evening till 0900 tomorrow morning.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

On Tuesday, 8 November 2016 13:17:14 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Eskimo Will wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area
due to come into force at midday while the current weather forecast
predicts no precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the
credibility of the Met Office no good at all. Timing is very important.
For example, snow very quickly affects bus services, including the many
school buses that operate to the villages and remote farms. If there is a
genuine threat of snow from midday onwards then afternoon bus services
could be disrupted. If there's nothing before 1800 then there's no problem.


Automated site forecasts yesterday gave sleet in Tideswell. As far as I can
see snow will only be a problem 400 metres and above. The upper trough is
disrupting and precip will slow down as low deepens in base of trough. There
has been this trend in model runs so far. The MetO I'm afraid is going down
hill rapidly now as the last of the experienced staff retire or leave. This
is not a criticism of younger staff who are brilliant but know no other
culture than the one they have now which is working towards full automation
and where forecasting has become a fringe activity in the Met Office. But
hey, I'm a dinosaur, what do I know? (Quite a bit actually; LOL).

Will

Automated forecast is now predicting heavy snow in Tideswell from 2000 this
evening till 0900 tomorrow morning.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr

That tends to agree with the BBC forecast after the 1 o'clock News.

On Tuesday, 8 November 2016 14:38:29 UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Tuesday, 8 November 2016 13:17:14 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Eskimo Will wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

I don't know why there's a severe weather warning for snow for this area
due to come into force at midday while the current weather forecast
predicts no precipitation before 1800. Such discrepancies do the
credibility of the Met Office no good at all. Timing is very important.
For example, snow very quickly affects bus services, including the many
school buses that operate to the villages and remote farms.

You don't really believe peasants are so dumb do you?

Automated site forecasts yesterday gave sleet in Tideswell. As far as I can
see snow will only be a problem 400 metres and above. The upper trough is
disrupting and precip will slow down as low deepens in base of trough.
There has been this trend in model runs so far.
Automated weather stations?

The MetO I'm afraid is going down
hill rapidly now as the last of the experienced staff retire or leave.
This is not a criticism of younger staff

It should be!

... forecasting has become a fringe activity in the Met Office.
But hey, I'm a dinosaur, what do I know?

Will

You seem to have studiously ignored me for some time, so I have to imagine you don't know as much as you may think.

Automated forecast is now predicting heavy snow in Tideswell from 2000 this
evening till 0900 tomorrow morning.

The position of the Anticyclone over Greenland along with a Low over Scandinavia is critical in snow forecasts.

Increasing volcanic forecasts too but you should know that by now.

That tends to agree with the BBC forecast after the 1 o'clock News.

People can choose to ignore what they wish to ignore but the penalty for ignorance is self evident. Allow me to point out, to the meek among us, that there is a belt of isobars on the left of this chart:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

These bands indicate tropical storms but all such have faded; yet the belt has remained long after more storms should have built than the mere Meari.

You would all do well to take a look at the NA-EFS.
I have taken the opportunity to look again at the North Atlantic from the forecasts of the 6th A remarkable conta-rotation got past me the last time I looked.
http://www.woksat.info/etcykasxx/asxx16110100.html The reality is a bit different. There again ... no moere than is to be expected.

And you should know by now what that means.