With reference to the lowest three-month totals mentioned by Vidcapper the
spring of 1893 is probably the driest 3 month spell. For instance at Arundel
in Sussex only 18.9mm and at Oxford only 22.7mm of rain fell March-May and a
number of places had under 25mm such as Sevenoaks in Kent.
At Romford from March 2nd to July 7th only 31.4mm was measured.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 9 Oct 2003 at 12:04:59, Ian Currie wrote :
With reference to the lowest three-month totals mentioned by Vidcapper the
spring of 1893 is probably the driest 3 month spell. For instance at Arundel
in Sussex only 18.9mm and at Oxford only 22.7mm of rain fell March-May and a
number of places had under 25mm such as Sevenoaks in Kent.
At Romford from March 2nd to July 7th only 31.4mm was measured.

I can check this - I've covered that part of the Cheltenham records
recently.

Mar 1893 : 0.14" (3.6mm)
Apr 1893 : 0.07" (1.8mm)
1st-14th May : 0.04" (1.0mm)

Then the drought broke with 1.24" (31.5mm) in the next 6 days.

From 8th Mar to 28th Apr we had just 0.08" (2.0mm) in 52 days!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

Vidcapper wrote:

I can check this - I've covered that part of the Cheltenham records
recently.

Mar 1893 : 0.14" (3.6mm)
Apr 1893 : 0.07" (1.8mm)
1st-14th May : 0.04" (1.0mm)

Then the drought broke with 1.24" (31.5mm) in the next 6 days.

From 8th Mar to 28th Apr we had just 0.08" (2.0mm) in 52 days!

I guess the next question is when and where was the longest period that
anywhere experienced no measurable rainfall?

Jonathan

On a slightly different approach, I 've looked at previous dry
Septembers and Octobers to see what winters followed. One thing I will
say is, where I found dry Sept/Oct the previous Augusts had been
average to wet, whereas August 2003 was dry. So any comparisons are
flawed from the start. However....
This is based on data for Southend-on-Sea, Essex.

There were three years that had dry Sept/Oct's
1969, 1978 and 1986.
1969 - Cold spell after Christmas and the first week of Jan 1970.
1978 - January 1979 was a cold month.
1986 - January and February 1987 saw some of the snowiest winters in
the SE for many a year.

So there's food for thought, which follows the theory that a blocking
type pattern in the Autumn is often followed by the same for winter.
It is also said that many fogs in autumn indicate a cold winter, well
if the blocking continues, this should be the case.
There are also plenty of berries on bushes (wild)

So there maybe some mileage in hopes of a more traditional winter.

Keith (Southend)

*****************************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

COL Station for Southend-on-Sea

On Thu, 9 Oct 2003 19:21:11 +0100, Vidcapper
wrote:

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 9 Oct 2003 at 12:04:59, Ian Currie wrote :
With reference to the lowest three-month totals mentioned by Vidcapper the
spring of 1893 is probably the driest 3 month spell. For instance at Arundel
in Sussex only 18.9mm and at Oxford only 22.7mm of rain fell March-May and a
number of places had under 25mm such as Sevenoaks in Kent.
At Romford from March 2nd to July 7th only 31.4mm was measured.

I can check this - I've covered that part of the Cheltenham records
recently.

Mar 1893 : 0.14" (3.6mm)
Apr 1893 : 0.07" (1.8mm)
1st-14th May : 0.04" (1.0mm)

Then the drought broke with 1.24" (31.5mm) in the next 6 days.

From 8th Mar to 28th Apr we had just 0.08" (2.0mm) in 52 days!

On Thu, 09 Oct 2003 20:14:17 +0100, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

So there's food for thought, which follows the theory that a blocking
type pattern in the Autumn is often followed by the same for winter.
It is also said that many fogs in autumn indicate a cold winter, well
if the blocking continues, this should be the case.
There are also plenty of berries on bushes (wild)

So there maybe some mileage in hopes of a more traditional winter.

And October 1962 was predominantly anticyclonic, dry and warmish -
except for the last week. One other similarity: on the 8th October,
the warmest place in the UK was the West Sussex Coast, with 21 degrees
C in both 1962 and 2003 (Thorney island, Shoreham-by Sea
respectively).

Now, I wonder what the 1962/3 Winter was like...

--
Dave

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 9 Oct 2003 at 12:04:59, Ian Currie wrote :

With reference to the lowest three-month totals mentioned by Vidcapper the
spring of 1893 is probably the driest 3 month spell. For instance at Arundel
in Sussex only 18.9mm and at Oxford only 22.7mm of rain fell March-May and a
number of places had under 25mm such as Sevenoaks in Kent.
At Romford from March 2nd to July 7th only 31.4mm was measured.

I've done some calculations on the CE Rainfall records, and the driest 3
month periods were :

Jan-Mar 1779 : 44.4mm
Mar-May 1785 : 54.8mm*
Feb-Apr 1938 : 56.6mm
Feb-Apr 1785 : 63.8mm*
Apr-Jun 1844 : 64.9mm

(* Feb-May 1785 was also the driest 4 month spell with 89.7mm)

The driest Aug-Oct was in 1947, with 83.3mm (the current total is
69.7mm).

Incidentally, the wettest 3 month spell was very recently : Oct-Dec
2000, with 512.3mm.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

Interesting research Paul. My answer though really was concerned with
individual stations over a three month period rather than an average of
stations re CE rainfall index which would produce a higher figure. For
instance did a station in 1779 have under 18.9mm of rain during this period,
Arundel's three month 1893 total?
Jan- March 1779 at Thomas Barker's station in Rutland recorded 65.9 mm
whilst Lambeth, London measured only 26.8mm but still in excess of Arundel's
1893 figure. Jan-March 1740 came close in London with 21.4mm.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.Frostedearth.com





"Vidcapper" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 9 Oct 2003 at 12:04:59, Ian Currie wrote :

With reference to the lowest three-month totals mentioned by Vidcapper
the
spring of 1893 is probably the driest 3 month spell. For instance at
Arundel
in Sussex only 18.9mm and at Oxford only 22.7mm of rain fell March-May
and a
number of places had under 25mm such as Sevenoaks in Kent.
At Romford from March 2nd to July 7th only 31.4mm was measured.

I've done some calculations on the CE Rainfall records, and the driest 3
month periods were :

Jan-Mar 1779 : 44.4mm
Mar-May 1785 : 54.8mm*
Feb-Apr 1938 : 56.6mm
Feb-Apr 1785 : 63.8mm*
Apr-Jun 1844 : 64.9mm

(* Feb-May 1785 was also the driest 4 month spell with 89.7mm)

The driest Aug-Oct was in 1947, with 83.3mm (the current total is
69.7mm).

Incidentally, the wettest 3 month spell was very recently : Oct-Dec
2000, with 512.3mm.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 20 Oct 2003 at 00:29:17, Ian Currie wrote :

Interesting research Paul. My answer though really was concerned with
individual stations over a three month period rather than an average of
stations re CE rainfall index which would produce a higher figure.

Alas, I don't have that info.

Jan- March 1779 at Thomas Barker's station in Rutland recorded 65.9 mm
whilst Lambeth, London measured only 26.8mm but still in excess of Arundel's
1893 figure. Jan-March 1740 came close in London with 21.4mm.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk