On Saturday, 18 February 2017 04:43:43 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 18 February 2017 04:21:12 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:


My problem is that once you miss a forecast there is no way to get it back and I get the biggest kick backs from the runs. Analysis charts just don't have any immediacy. And even they are very difficult to get hold of anyway. A problem compounded by the fact I so seldom use them and when I do nobody ever reads my stuff.

It doesn't help that they will one day.

So I am plodding along feeling cold tired and dejected and then Sunday's chart pops up and suddenly I am glad i got up. I don't get the kicks I used to out of learning something new. That used to be mind blowing but at least I can sleep now.

I know I have to sleep on it I have 24 hours to come to some decision. At the moment it looks like the large quake I am expecting has sunk beneath the waves. If it does it will be a mass of minor quakes nobody will want to know about.
Is it just another NEI-4 or so? Possibly. Most likely that as well as a nearly quake.

Fortunately large medium quakes don't seem to have the disastrous effects they used to. I presume all the dangerous old buildings have already fallen and nobody builds stupid any more, except the Chinese.
And Britain.

I think it will be a large earthquake along with a VEI-4 or two VEI-3's. The large earthquake appears to be followed by significant aftershocks -something that has not been happening lately.

On Saturday, 18 February 2017 05:08:14 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Fortunately large medium quakes don't seem to have the disastrous effects they used to. I presume all the dangerous old buildings have already fallen and nobody builds stupid any more, except the Chinese.
And Britain.

I think it will be a large earthquake along with a VEI-4 or two VEI-3's. The large earthquake appears to be followed by significant aftershocks -something that has not been happening lately.

18 February 2017 Last Quarter 19:33 Wet

Supercool large water droplets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TML3CdxRN7M

With all that water vapour high in the air it would be an idea for airline pilots to be extra cautious. This plane problem was 20 years ago so a lot will have become known of the relatively new physics.

On Saturday, 18 February 2017 22:05:00 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 18 February 2017 05:08:14 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Fortunately large medium quakes don't seem to have the disastrous effects they used to. I presume all the dangerous old buildings have already fallen and nobody builds stupid any more, except the Chinese.
And Britain.

I think it will be a large earthquake along with a VEI-4 or two VEI-3's. The large earthquake appears to be followed by significant aftershocks -something that has not been happening lately.

18 February 2017 Last Quarter 19:33 Wet

Supercool large water droplets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TML3CdxRN7M

With all that water vapour high in the air it would be an idea for airline pilots to be extra cautious. This plane problem was 20 years ago so a lot will have become known of the relatively new physics.

Desynchronosis, AKA jet-lag is a symptom exacerbated with high volcanic activity such as are in play at the moment. It was a first when the air-crew of this flight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVrP4XNC36I was examined for processes that interfered with circadian rhythms.
http://sleepcenter.ucla.edu/circadian-rhythms

Your reply has been posted and will be available shortly.

When Google is struggling the first thing that occurs is messge delivery stalls. I blieve weird things happen to you tube videos too. Heavily supported channels lose a lot of connectivity and the owners make their feelings known.

I believe the problem lies in emf output from volcanic sources they appear to be one and the same as/with thunder storms. It is certain that the appearance of black fronts running perpendicular to isobars always manage to appear when a cyclone bifurcates.

I admit to not having paid attention to any symmetry with them. They are obviously not amorphous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX83qSatoOo Live

On Sunday, 19 February 2017 13:18:17 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Your reply has been posted and will be available shortly.

When Google is struggling the first thing that occurs is messge delivery stalls. I blieve weird things happen to you tube videos too. Heavily supported channels lose a lot of connectivity and the owners make their feelings known.

I believe the problem lies in emf output from volcanic sources they appear to be one and the same as/with thunder storms. It is certain that the appearance of black fronts running perpendicular to isobars always manage to appear when a cyclone bifurcates.

I admit to not having paid attention to any symmetry with them. They are obviously not amorphous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX83qSatoOo Live

Today's model run got interesting around t+60. The surfeit of cold fronts vaporising into the spattering of eyes, some relatively deep, giving a lot of rotation and the absence of the trapped warmth giving Greenland another go by Thursday (another day of panic in California I imagine.)

On Monday, 20 February 2017 01:07:11 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Sunday, 19 February 2017 13:18:17 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Your reply has been posted and will be available shortly.

When Google is struggling the first thing that occurs is messge delivery stalls. I blieve weird things happen to you tube videos too. Heavily supported channels lose a lot of connectivity and the owners make their feelings known.

I believe the problem lies in emf output from volcanic sources they appear to be one and the same as/with thunder storms. It is certain that the appearance of black fronts running perpendicular to isobars always manage to appear when a cyclone bifurcates.

I admit to not having paid attention to any symmetry with them. They are obviously not amorphous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX83qSatoOo Live

Today's model run got interesting around t+60. The surfeit of cold fronts vaporising into the spattering of eyes, some relatively deep, giving a lot of rotation and the absence of the trapped warmth giving Greenland another go by Thursday (another day of panic in California I imagine.)

I missed the rain going ashore at Washington and Oregon on Tuesday that could pose difficulties:
http://mkwc2.ifa.hawaii.edu/requests...3677.26186.tar

Sillier and sillier just too a turn for the ridiculous how long is a piece of sting enquiry from a dambuster in California. After telling the forecaster that it was going to rain on Wednesday he asked him eot try and give an aproximate volume for the expected downpour.

Leaving aside they don't know how much rain is going to fall, they can not possibly say exactly where it is going to fall, nor how the locality it falls in is going to hang on to the water; no more than he knows how quickly it is going to belt or how much snow-melt there will be with it.

He fielded it nicely with a vague replay about snow-melt. There is an article on taiga in Earth Observatory-The Rockies version IIRC.

It notes that above the snow, the pine needles are often boiling dry but because they are shading the snow from the sun the trees are unable to get at the water locked in the snow above them.

Here is one that is a little beyond me:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/inde...html#msg103766

Using the reanalysis, we can calculate the mean of the downward radiation flux. Of course, it is the reanalysis, with a coarse resolution and its own limitations (especially discontinuities due to inclusion of varying kinds of data.)

I think it is quite good if we look at the values after 1981, the start of the satellite era. Greenhouse effect of infrared emitted by the atmosphere toward Earth surface (data for the above 69°N (radiation data see link) averaged according to surface for each day from 1st January, 1981:

It is looking quite like the graph of the temperature according to the DNMI..

We are tempted to say, a warmer atmosphere radiates more energy. The mean level of radiation for Earth is around 5 - 6 km, so around 500 hPa, take or given a couple of hPa.

[Is he saying the cause of the thickness band 500 DAM is the return radiance of the planet?] Relationship between temperature and radiation is not linear, so we can calculate the flux of a black-body:

Flux = 5.67e-8 * T^4

The grid for the temperatures are not the same as the one for the radiation data. The precision of the reanalysis is probably far worse than the small difference induced by averaging over a slightly different area. So I used the region above 67.5°N for the temperatures, calculated the radiation flux from the temperature and compare with DWLR, and averaged for the three months from November to January. The year of reference is that of January (ie., NDJ 2017 is the average of ND 2016 and J 2017)

[see 2nd chart in link]

Values are roughly the same, so 500 hPa is a good level. But correlation is not looking good actually... I look to other levels, but the correlation is not significantly better. As a side-note, the temperatures at 500 hPa:

[see 3rd chart]

So, what if we try with the precipitable water?
[Chart 4]

It looks way better...

So I detrend the series, to compare the cross-correlation. Anomalies of the downward radiation flux, explained by the anomalies of the black-body emission:

[5]

[I am not sure what chart we are on by:]

It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming,[****! I've been wasting our time!] the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above.

Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice. [minus 15 is barely cold enough for sea ice?] This graph shows the warming of the Arctic layers:

[5 charts. They honestly look like shot spatter all but one so...]

The surface 1000 hPa is warming fast and is now warmer than the 850 hPa for the first time since 1981 (and probably since many millenniums...). And the strength of the inversion (or of the now non-inversion) taken as the difference between the 850 hPa and 1000 hPa temperatures:

The data spreadsheet www.climatvisu.fr/Neven_ASIF/dlwr_out_2.ods

http://www.climatvisu.fr/Neven_ASIF/dlwr_out_2.ods

One of the sheep replied :

"I don't understand much of this analysis, but the correlation with water vapor makes a certain amount of intuitive sense because "Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas.""

I shouldn't have to explain that the angle between the cloud and the sun is crucial to global warming or cooling -regardless of radiation emissions. I wonder it also applies to carbondioxide?

If it falls onto the cloud it is global cooling as the direct result is kinetic. If it shines under the cloud it warms the planet and the cloud.

The thing about cloud is that as liquid it is transparent for hundreds of feet but as vapour it soon absorbs or refracts the light into grey.

Shiveluch (Kamchatka): (20 Feb) Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: ERUPTION AT 20170220/0516Z FL180 EXTD NW REPORTED OBS VA DTG:20/0510Z

Bagana (Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea): (19 Feb) Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: VA OBS TO FL110 EXT 35NM TO SSW AT 19/2130Z.

Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia): (19 Feb) Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: ERUPTION OBS TO FL100 OBS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

Krakatau (Sunda Strait, Indonesia): A new eruption as suspected yesterday has been confirmed. Our reader Aaron visited the volcano and saw intense strombolian-vulcanian type activity from the summit crater of Anak Krakatau:
"Spent last night at Anak Krakatoa and just saw your post about new activity, I can confirm there was a lot of activity yesterday afternoon/night. See attached photo."
Eruption Special tour: We plan to organize expeditions to Krakatau in the near future. If you like to be updated, drop us an email or visit the Krakatau Volcano Special tour page.

Dukono (Halmahera): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA EMISSIONS TO FL080 OBS VA DTG:20/1930Z
....20 Feb:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Darwin (VAAC) issued the following report: CONTINUOUS VA EMISSIONS TO FL080 OBS VA DTG:20/0730Z

Bogoslof (United States, Aleutian Islands): More explosions occurred at the volcano this morning. The Alaska Volcano Observatory detected a "series of short, explosive eruptions that started at 17:08 AKST local time (02:08 February 20 UTC) and lasted until 17:45 AKST (02:45 February 20 UTC).
"Satellite images following the activity showed a volcanic plume extending about 100 miles (160 km) to the southeast over Unalaska Island and the Pacific Ocean. The plume was visible in images through 19:00 AKST (04:00 February 20 UTC).
....20 Feb:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Anchorage (VAAC) issued the following report: 20/0208Z ERUPTION

Sabancaya (Peru): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Buenos Aires (VAAC) issued the following report: INTEMITTENTS PUUFFS OF VA
....20 Feb:
Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Buenos Aires (VAAC) issued the following report: INTERMITTENTS PUFFS OF VA OBS VA DTG:20/0645Z

Barren Island (Indian Ocean): A new eruption is occurring at the remote and India's only active volcano.
Since mid January, pronounced heat signals - the strongest since May 2016 - have been detected on satellite imagery coming from the summit of the volcano. A team of Indian researchers from the Goa-based National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) visited the island on 23 and 26 Jan this year and confirmed new eruptive activity:

Busy, busy, busy...
It is unusual for warm fronts to cross the continent the way they do on midnight's chart this night. But there again there is a massive earthquake pending. It is keeping me waiting, perhaps to give the duds a chance to catch up. Takes it!
A singularity like that is a signal chance.

Whatever the case the bit about Froude Numbers comes into play now initially developed by a

Fr=V/square root of(gD)

Whe

= Water velocity/square root of(Gravity x Hydraulic depth (cross sectional area of flow / top width)

The flow at top centre of channel is fastest an the flow along either bank migh even be negative and water eddies uphil on the return of shedding vortex.

Fr = 1, critical flow,
Fr 1, supercritical flow (fast rapid flow),
Fr 1, subcritical flow (slow / tranquil flow)

The Froude number is a measurement of bulk flow characteristics such as waves, sand bedforms, flow/depth interactions at a cross section or between boulders.

The speed of a small wave on the water surface relative to the speed of the water at critical flow equals flow velocity.

Disturbances to the surface will remain stationary. In sub-critical flow the flow is controlled from a downstream point and information is transmitted upstream.

This condition leads to backwater effects. Supercritical flow is controlled upstream and disturbances are transmitted downstream.

Wave propagation can be used to illustrate these flow states: A stick placed in the water will create a V pattern of waves downstream. If flow is sub-critical waves will appear in front of the stick.

If flow is at critical waves will have a 45 degree angle.

If flow is supercritical no upstream waves will appear and the wave angle will be less than 45 degrees.

Not easy to hack; this is how quicksand works so be careful how you lie down in it. I only introduce the subject to evoke criticality.

The near gale amplitudes of earthquakes that signal the next tropical storm or roll-cloud/derecho is about 5.5 M or greater.

That is when the sequence of earth-tremors no longer includes a medium sized earthquake the number of hours elapsing before the next medium sized tremor indicates the geo-phenomenon that succeeds the spell.

Why this happens I can't say but it undoubtedly relates to the appearance of anticyclones over Greenland. And these relate to the original source of the air involved.

Well it is time I went bye-byes, to sleep perchance to end the heartache of a thousand natural shocks. To sleep, perchance to think about the the rub of backwash and vortex shedding. And the damned Greenland High and why 'tis the immortal coil of North American tornadoes absorbed at first in the Bering Sea.

Talking about damned:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Now we have Seven and the problem of explaining the relationship with the earthquakes.

In the Bering Straight there is a great deal of anticyclone being picked up by the coming Icelandic Low.You might like to watch it's transport while the earth prepares for the next large or medium-large earthquake.

I have to admit I don't know what is already in train as I was playing on the Donald Trump watch the damned dam website.

On Wednesday, 22 February 2017 03:10:16 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
In the Bering Straight there is a great deal of anticyclone being picked up by the coming Icelandic Low.You might like to watch it's transport while the earth prepares for the next large or medium-large earthquake.

I have to admit I don't know what is already in train as I was playing on the Donald Trump watch the damned dam website.

I can't recall if the pair ditch each other at the continent's edge or if they both cross the Davies Straight. Meanwhile you can watch the two Australians arriving at Antarctica on he
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View
Not that they join an already formed dual in the circuit. Anticyclonic will be extracted!

You can guess what happens next. Or if you are being paid to be stupid, you can read the title of the thread.