Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Tuesday 14th October 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm1201.html
T+96 hour chart unavailable tonight so T+120 chart analysed.
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Norway and ridges northwestwards
towards Greenland. Low pressure (995mb) lies well to the west of the
UK in the Atlantic, with another low (1010mb) to the north of
Scandinavia. Winds across the UK are moderate southeasterlies. Many
parts will be mostly fine and dry, but there may be some showers in
the southwest. Temperatures will be close to or just above normal in
many parts. As we head through next week there is very little change,
although as low pressure sinks south into Scandinavia, winds may begin
to back to a cooler easterly direction in the east.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia. Low pressure (990mb)
lies to the west of Iceland, with a secondary low (1005mb) centred to
the southwest of Ireland in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are
mostly moderate south/southeasterlies. Many parts will be mainly dry
and bright, with perhaps a shower in the southwest. 850hPa
temperatures range from +5C in the north to +8C in the south. Forecast
2m temperatures range from +10C over the Scottish Highlands to +16C in
the south. Beyond there is little change with pressure remaining high
to the north/northeast, but there are signs that towards the end of
next week cooler easterly winds may arrive.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...101200_096.gif
High pressure (1040mb) is centred over Scandinavia. Low pressure
(985mb) lies to the west/southwest of Iceland in the Atlantic. Winds
across the UK are mostly light to moderate southeasterlies. Many parts
will be mainly dry and bright, perhaps some showers in the southwest.
Temperatures will be close to or just above normal in many parts.
Beyond this the high persists to the northeast of the country over
Scandinavia for a time before moving towards Iceland, and as pressure
falls over Scandinavia, the UK could see some much colder
east/northeasterly winds arriving from the northeast later next week
with the south turning more unsettled for a time.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1202.html
T+96 hour chart unavailable, so T+120 chart analysed.
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges northwestwards
towards Greenland. Slack areas of low pressure lie to the west of the
UK in the Atlantic, with another low (1000mb) to the north of
Scandinavia. Winds across the UK are moderate southeasterlies. Many
parts will be mostly fine and dry, but there may be showers in the
southwest. 850hPa temperatures range from +5C in the north and
northeast to +7C in the southwest. Temperatures will be close to or
just above normal in many parts. As we head through next week there is
very little change, although as low pressure sinks south into
Scandinavia and high pressure drifts towards Greenland and Iceland,
winds may begin to back to a cooler easterly direction in the east.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges towards
Greenland, with another high (1030mb) centred well to the northeast
over Siberia. Low pressure (985mb) lies to the west of Iceland in the
Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly light to moderate
south/southeasterlies. Many parts will be mainly dry and fine, with
just a risk of a shower towards the southwest. 850hPa temperatures
range from between +5C in the north and +10C on the East Anglian
coast. Temperatures will be close to or just above normal. Beyond this
pressure remains high to the northeast of the UK, with the rather warm
southeasterly winds, and most parts staying fine and settled for much
of next week.

Canadian – T+72 hours for MONDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure (1035mb) lies to the northeast of the UK over Norway.
Low pressure (986mb) lies well to the west of the country in the
Atlantic. The UK lies under light to moderate winds, mostly from a
south/southeasterly direction. Most areas will be mostly dry and fine,
but possibly showers in the far southwest. Daytime temperatures will
be close to or just above normal in most areas.

Summary:
A settled picture as we go into next week, with pressure remaining
high to the northeast of the UK, meaning that conditions will be
mostly dry and settled as well as rather warm in many parts. However,
as we go towards the end of next week there are signs that as pressure
falls over Scandinavia and the high pressure drifts towards
Iceland/Greenland, winds may back to a colder easterly direction (GFS,
DWD), however there is still a fair degree of uncertainty with the JMA
for example keeping conditions on the warm side.

Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame it's
October though... :-(
Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

"Paul B" wrote in message
om...
Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Tuesday 14th October 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm1201.html
T+96 hour chart unavailable tonight so T+120 chart analysed.
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Norway and ridges northwestwards
towards Greenland. Low pressure (995mb) lies well to the west of the
UK in the Atlantic, with another low (1010mb) to the north of
Scandinavia. Winds across the UK are moderate southeasterlies. Many
parts will be mostly fine and dry, but there may be some showers in
the southwest. Temperatures will be close to or just above normal in
many parts. As we head through next week there is very little change,
although as low pressure sinks south into Scandinavia, winds may begin
to back to a cooler easterly direction in the east.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia. Low pressure (990mb)
lies to the west of Iceland, with a secondary low (1005mb) centred to
the southwest of Ireland in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are
mostly moderate south/southeasterlies. Many parts will be mainly dry
and bright, with perhaps a shower in the southwest. 850hPa
temperatures range from +5C in the north to +8C in the south. Forecast
2m temperatures range from +10C over the Scottish Highlands to +16C in
the south. Beyond there is little change with pressure remaining high
to the north/northeast, but there are signs that towards the end of
next week cooler easterly winds may arrive.

DWD:
SLP:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...101200_096.gif
High pressure (1040mb) is centred over Scandinavia. Low pressure
(985mb) lies to the west/southwest of Iceland in the Atlantic. Winds
across the UK are mostly light to moderate southeasterlies. Many parts
will be mainly dry and bright, perhaps some showers in the southwest.
Temperatures will be close to or just above normal in many parts.
Beyond this the high persists to the northeast of the country over
Scandinavia for a time before moving towards Iceland, and as pressure
falls over Scandinavia, the UK could see some much colder
east/northeasterly winds arriving from the northeast later next week
with the south turning more unsettled for a time.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1202.html
T+96 hour chart unavailable, so T+120 chart analysed.
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges northwestwards
towards Greenland. Slack areas of low pressure lie to the west of the
UK in the Atlantic, with another low (1000mb) to the north of
Scandinavia. Winds across the UK are moderate southeasterlies. Many
parts will be mostly fine and dry, but there may be showers in the
southwest. 850hPa temperatures range from +5C in the north and
northeast to +7C in the southwest. Temperatures will be close to or
just above normal in many parts. As we head through next week there is
very little change, although as low pressure sinks south into
Scandinavia and high pressure drifts towards Greenland and Iceland,
winds may begin to back to a cooler easterly direction in the east.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges towards
Greenland, with another high (1030mb) centred well to the northeast
over Siberia. Low pressure (985mb) lies to the west of Iceland in the
Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly light to moderate
south/southeasterlies. Many parts will be mainly dry and fine, with
just a risk of a shower towards the southwest. 850hPa temperatures
range from between +5C in the north and +10C on the East Anglian
coast. Temperatures will be close to or just above normal. Beyond this
pressure remains high to the northeast of the UK, with the rather warm
southeasterly winds, and most parts staying fine and settled for much
of next week.

Canadian - T+72 hours for MONDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure (1035mb) lies to the northeast of the UK over Norway.
Low pressure (986mb) lies well to the west of the country in the
Atlantic. The UK lies under light to moderate winds, mostly from a
south/southeasterly direction. Most areas will be mostly dry and fine,
but possibly showers in the far southwest. Daytime temperatures will
be close to or just above normal in most areas.

Summary:
A settled picture as we go into next week, with pressure remaining
high to the northeast of the UK, meaning that conditions will be
mostly dry and settled as well as rather warm in many parts. However,
as we go towards the end of next week there are signs that as pressure
falls over Scandinavia and the high pressure drifts towards
Iceland/Greenland, winds may back to a colder easterly direction (GFS,
DWD), however there is still a fair degree of uncertainty with the JMA
for example keeping conditions on the warm side.

"John Payne" wrote in message
...
Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame it's
October though... :-(
Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.


Ever the optimist I predict a major pattern change to UK winters. Out go the
mild ones of the 90's and in comes a period of colder and snowier
weather.....
Hold on!! What the hell am I saying? We all know it'll end in tears!! ;-)

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"John Payne" wrote in message
...
Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame it's
October though... :-(
Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.


Ever the optimist I predict a major pattern change to UK winters. Out go the
mild ones of the 90's and in comes a period of colder and snowier
weather.....
Hold on!! What the hell am I saying? We all know it'll end in tears!! ;-)

Victor
Dear God Victor, for a minute there I thought you were serious...
....but then maybe you're being influenced by one or TWO forecasts?

J.

We are due for a change in Pattern, certainly for the winters, and
they do seem to slot into almost 10 year cycles. Of course the
influence of global warming may mean the any talk of a 1947 or 1963
weather type are highly unlikely. But then how would we cope in this
country! 15 years of new drivers that have never driven on ice :-0

Keith (Southend)

*****************************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
On Sat, 11 Oct 2003 01:34:26 +0100, "JCW" wrote:

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"John Payne" wrote in message
...
Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame it's
October though... :-(
Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.


Ever the optimist I predict a major pattern change to UK winters. Out go the
mild ones of the 90's and in comes a period of colder and snowier
weather.....
Hold on!! What the hell am I saying? We all know it'll end in tears!! ;-)

Victor
Dear God Victor, for a minute there I thought you were serious...
...but then maybe you're being influenced by one or TWO forecasts?

J.

In uk.sci.weather on Fri, 10 Oct 2003 at 22:52:38, John Payne wrote :

Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame it's
October though... :-(

Of course, we'll need to actually *have* some precipitation for that to
happen.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"John Payne" wrote in message
...
Cheers Paul,
Some fantastic charts there reminiscent of '47 and '63. It's a shame
it's
October though... :-(
Hopefully it's a sign of things to come.


Ever the optimist I predict a major pattern change to UK winters. Out go
the
mild ones of the 90's and in comes a period of colder and snowier
weather.....
Hold on!! What the hell am I saying? We all know it'll end in tears!! ;-)

Victor

Yes. Frozen tears.

JCW wrote:

Dear God Victor, for a minute there I thought you were serious...
...but then maybe you're being influenced by one or TWO forecasts?

Perish the thought that TWO might have got things right :-/



Jonathan