Will Hand wrote:

On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC)
d wrote:

On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 10:49:31 +0100
Will Hand wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC)
d wrote:

Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a
substantial part of london and the southwest.

[looks out the window]

Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in
cambridgshire and calais.

And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead
then whats the point of them?


Idiot.

Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for
the day and you need to go lie down now?

FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and
event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the
weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have
done better.


Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most
places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall
to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away
and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature
of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their
forecast from the Met Office any more they were meant to be moving over to
using MeteoGroup. Stephen?



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My take on this is that 'Warnings' should be issued only for something that is
expected to happen. In my ideal world the current large 'Warning' area should
be a 'Watch' area. The 'Warnings' should be issued and updated on an
hour-by-hour basis referring only to individual storms or clusters of storms
and restricted to those localities at imminent risk, say over the next 2 hours.
The 'Convective SIGMETs' issued by the US National Weather Service are an
excellent example of this, as are the tornado warnings. In other words, in
thundery situation, I think the 'Warnings' should take the form of 'Nowcasts'
updated hourly.

My experience is that I am very seldom affected by severe weather on the
occasions when a blanket 'Warning' is issued covering the part of the country
where I happen to be. This frequent 'cry wolf' situation has a huge negative
impact on the reputation of the Severe Weather Warning service. People of my
acquaintance in this part of the country largely ignore severe weather warnings
because of this.

I appreciate the forecasting difficulty in the present situation where there is
considerable potential for development. However, we have had a 'Warning' in
force for here since 6 a.m. but, so far, there hasn't been any hint of shower
activity in the area. A 'Watch' would have been much more appropriate than a
'Warning'.

Just my tuppence-worth :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr