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Old October 11th 03, 06:57 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (11/10/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0555z, 11/10/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
SE'lies cover the UK, with high pressure over Scandinavia and a low to the
SW. The winds become ESE'lies at T+144 as the Scandinavian High declines and
retrogresses. By T+144 the former Scandinavian High is mostly absorbed by a
high to the SE of Greenland, leading to easterlies over much of the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Unavailable at time of issue.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
As with yesterday's run, Scandinavia is covered by a large high. Moderate
SSE'lies and SE'lies cover the UK and there's little change at T+120. 850hPa
temperatures range from +6C over NW Scotland to +10C over SE England. The
high declines slightly at T+144, bringing SE'lies for all as a result. The
SE'lies continue at T+168, as the high moves over the northern North Sea and
declines. A new centre forms to the north of Scotland on day 8, resulting in
ESE'lies across the UK. Day 9 sees the high merge with the (displaced)
Azores High, with easterlies and NE'lies for the UK. The new high declines
to the NW of the UK on day 10, with northerlies for Scotland and easterlies
elsewhere.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
High pressure lies over the North Sea, bringing SSE'lies, SE'lies and
ESE'lies for the UK. The centre of the high moves to the NE of Iceland at
T+120, although a ridge over the North Sea means winds are as before. 850hPa
temperatures vary from +6C over northern Scotland to +12C over SW England.
SE'lies and ESE'lies affect the UK at T+144, with high pressure to the north
of Scotland and a ridge over Germany and Austria.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows strong SSE'lies over the UK, due to a large high over
Scandinavia. 850hPa temperatures range from +7C over NW Wales to +10C over
East Anglia. The SSE'lies continue at T+144, but by T+168 they become
SE'lies for many as the high sinks southwards and declines.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows good agreement of a Scandinavian high, with a low to the SW
of the UK.

In summary, today's runs persist in showing a Scandinavian High, with mild
winds from the SSE or SE looking likely for the middle of the week. By
Friday, the ECM and GFS show more of an easterly component, while the JMA
keeps the winds as SE'lies. As ever, more runs are needed.



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