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Old October 11th 03, 09:48 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 12Z Model Summary - Saturday 11th October 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Wednesday 15th October 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges northwestwards
towards Greenland as well as southeast into Europe. Low pressure lies
well to the north and west of the UK, with a shallow low (1010mb) to
the southwest of Britain in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are
moderate southeasterlies. Many parts will be mostly fine and dry, but
there may be some showers in the southwest. Temperatures will be close
to or just above normal in many parts. Beyond this there is very
little change with most parts staying dry and rather warm.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges southeastwards
into Europe. Low pressure lies well to the north and northwest of the
UK, with a shallow low (1010mb) centred to the southwest of Britain in
the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly moderate southeasterlies.
Many parts will be mainly dry and bright, with perhaps a shower in the
southwest. 850hPa temperatures range from +5C in the north to +9C in
the southeast. Forecast 2m temperatures range from +10C over the
Scottish Highlands to +17C in the south. Beyond there is little change
in the synoptic situation so staying mostly fine and rather warm.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...111200_096.gif
High pressure (1035mb) is centred over Western Scandinavia. Low
pressure (985mb) lies to the southwest of Iceland in the Atlantic,
with a shallow low (1010mb) lying close to the southwest of Ireland in
the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly moderate southeasterlies.
Many parts will be mainly dry and bright, but perhaps with some
showers in the west. Temperatures will be close to or just above
normal in many parts. Beyond this the high persists to the northeast
of the country over Scandinavia for a time before moving towards
Iceland, whilst low pressure may turn conditions somewhat more
unsettled in the south later.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
High pressure (1040mb) lies over Scandinavia. Slack areas of low
pressure lie well to the west of the UK in the Atlantic, with a
shallow low (1015mb) to the southwest of the country in the Atlantic.
Winds across the UK are moderate south/southeasterlies. Many parts
will be mostly fine and dry, but there may be showers in the far
southwest. 850hPa temperatures range from +5C in the north and
northeast to +8C in the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or
just above normal in many parts. As we head through next week there is
very little change, however winds may begin to back to a cooler
easterly direction in the east.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over Scandinavia and ridges towards
Greenland, as well as southeast into Central Europe. Low pressure
(995mb) lies to the west of Iceland in the Atlantic, with a shallow
low (1015mb) close to Western Ireland. Winds across the UK are mostly
moderate south/southeasterlies. Many parts will be mainly dry and
fine, but a risk of a shower towards the west. 850hPa temperatures
range from between +7C in the west and +11C in the east. Temperatures
will be close to or just above normal. Beyond this pressure remains
high to the northeast of the UK, with the rather warm southeasterly
winds, and most parts staying fine and settled for much of next week.

Canadian – T+72 hours for TUESDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure (1038mb) lies to the northeast of the UK over Norway.
Low pressure (981mb) lies well to the northwest of the country in the
Atlantic. The UK lies under moderate winds, mostly from a
south/southeasterly direction. Most areas will be mostly dry and fine,
but possible showers in the far southwest. Daytime temperatures will
be close to or just above normal in most areas.

Summary:
A settled picture as we go into next week, with pressure remaining
high to the northeast of the UK, meaning that conditions will be
mostly dry and settled as well as rather warm in many parts. It looks
like the high will now ridge into Central Europe now, meaning that
many areas will stay on the warm side throughout the week. Any rain
will probably be restricted to the southwest and in the form of
showers.

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