On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:56:19 PM UTC, wrote:
Are there not two issues here? First, how human forecasters balance conflicting models and successive model runs (is the latest run always the best?.....is there a tendency for some models to over-egg blocking after about D + 5?). Second, the forecasters' and the public's perception of 'average', 'cold' etc in any given month which is where the two Grahams started this thread. At times this month I've noticed a tendency to think that average temperatures are below average. This simply feeds the public's belief that it is 'cold', even in London (overhearing conversations on trains, for example). I have been tempted to point out that it is January, but of course am far too tactful to do that (or cowardly).

Julian Mayes Molesey Surrey - and just about a perfect January day here, unbroken bright sunshine, cold, crisp, nearly calm.

To be fair, the BBC weather presenters do often talk about the temperatures being colder than or warmer than the average for the time of year.
It had been quite pleasant here the last couple of days with the the max temperature at 9C. But that is because there has been no wind.
Bring in a northerly or easterly wind and it would feel right chilly.
It is how it feels in the wind that Joe Public notices and wants to know in a forecast.
So above or below average temperatures do not tell the whole story.

Len
in Wembury basking in Sudden Stratospheric Warming.
😎

Len wrote..
To be fair, the BBC weather presenters do often talk about the temperatures being colder than or warmer than the average for the time of year.

Yes, of course, I was not trying to suggest otherwise (far from it! ). I was thinking more of what constitutes 'average'? And I take your point about the feel of the weather, but windchill gets a good airing on the forecasts separately when it is significant.

Julian Molesey