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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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On the MetO outlook for the UK
"Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers" Well in Penzance, where the weather can be rather different. the wind is forecast to be generally NW. So I checked Southend, Monachester & Oxford, none suggest a NE wind, all NW-SW. Then "During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. " But Saturday MetO forecast maximums (maxima?) Oxford 8C Manchester 8C Penzance 10C Has very cold been redefined? Graham Penzance |
#2
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![]() On the MetO outlook for the UK "Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers" Well in Penzance, where the weather can be rather different. the wind is forecast to be generally NW. So I checked Southend, Monachester & Oxford, none suggest a NE wind, all NW-SW. Then "During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. " But Saturday MetO forecast maximums (maxima?) Oxford 8C Manchester 8C Penzance 10C Has very cold been redefined? Just noticed that Graham, showing 7c for Leek with a low of 0c, surely 7c is average for January (not even rather cold) and how on earth would you get widespread locally severe frost at 0c?? Totally confusing. Graham (Weston Coyney) |
#3
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Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-)
It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda |
#4
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Freddie wrote:
Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-) It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. But what is Joe Public expected to make of it? It hardly inspires confidence in the Met Office products. Those of us on here can see how the differences can come about but to the average punter it looks as if they just don't know what is going on and are trying to cover themselves for all eventualities. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. https://peakdistrictweather.org twitter: @TideswellWeathr |
#5
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On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-) It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the deterministic model run. "On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. " So at least they are now in line! Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around 1C above normal across the country http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales & rain. Graham Penzance |
#6
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Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote: Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-) It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the deterministic model run. "On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. " So at least they are now in line! Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around 1C above normal across the country http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales & rain. Graham Penzance Currently 1.1° above average in Tideswell but there is potential for it to get below average before the end of the month. Rainfall and sunshine both running well below average for the month so far. For the second day running we've had a lot of fog. Not quite as cold today with the temp now up to +1.9°. We'll all be stripping off if it gets much hotter :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. https://peakdistrictweather.org twitter: @TideswellWeathr |
#7
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On Sunday, 20 January 2019 13:22:08 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Freddie wrote: Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-) It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. But what is Joe Public expected to make of it? It hardly inspires confidence in the Met Office products. Those of us on here can see how the differences can come about but to the average punter it looks as if they just don't know what is going on and are trying to cover themselves for all eventualities. Yes, very true! There is an answer of sorts in their FAQ section: 19. Why are there differences between your symbol forecasts and your map-based forecasts? Our symbol forecasts are updated every hour to provide you with the very latest and most accurate information. Our rainfall and cloud map forecasts are currently updated every 6 hours. This sometimes results in differences between the two sets of information and we are working to address this. I think this only tells part of the story, though, as there is the pure model v human forecast aspect too. It does look bad, TBH. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda 148m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently) Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201901JAN.xlsx |
#8
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On Sunday, 20 January 2019 13:26:35 UTC, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote: Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-) It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the deterministic model run. I would suggest that it has been updated to reflect several deterministic models (not to mention the ensembles too). Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around 1C above normal across the country http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales & rain. Same in south Wales - current anomoly is +0.9. -- Freddie Ystrad Rhondda 148m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently) Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201901JAN.xlsx |
#9
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Are there not two issues here? First, how human forecasters balance conflicting models and successive model runs (is the latest run always the best?.....is there a tendency for some models to over-egg blocking after about D + 5?). Second, the forecasters' and the public's perception of 'average', 'cold' etc in any given month which is where the two Grahams started this thread. At times this month I've noticed a tendency to think that average temperatures are below average. This simply feeds the public's belief that it is 'cold', even in London (overhearing conversations on trains, for example). I have been tempted to point out that it is January, but of course am far too tactful to do that (or cowardly).
Julian Mayes Molesey Surrey - and just about a perfect January day here, unbroken bright sunshine, cold, crisp, nearly calm. |
#10
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