On the MetO outlook for the UK
"Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers"

Well in Penzance, where the weather can be rather different. the wind is forecast to be generally NW. So I checked Southend, Monachester & Oxford, none suggest a NE wind, all NW-SW.

Then
"During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. "

But Saturday MetO forecast maximums (maxima?)
Oxford 8C
Manchester 8C
Penzance 10C

Has very cold been redefined?

Graham
Penzance

On the MetO outlook for the UK
"Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream
bringing sunshine and showers"

Well in Penzance, where the weather can be rather different. the wind is
forecast to be generally NW. So I checked Southend, Monachester & Oxford,
none suggest a NE wind, all NW-SW.

Then
"During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected
with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with
widespread frost. "

But Saturday MetO forecast maximums (maxima?)
Oxford 8C
Manchester 8C
Penzance 10C

Has very cold been redefined?

Just noticed that Graham, showing 7c for Leek with a low of 0c, surely 7c is
average for January (not even rather cold) and how on earth would you get
widespread locally severe frost at 0c??
Totally confusing.


Graham (Weston Coyney)

Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing.

--
Freddie
Ystrad Rhondda

Freddie wrote:

Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions.
Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and
written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the
deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind
on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said
before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as
it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a
good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next
issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the
"most probable"solution at the time of writing.

But what is Joe Public expected to make of it? It hardly inspires
confidence in the Met Office products. Those of us on here can see how
the differences can come about but to the average punter it looks as if
they just don't know what is going on and are trying to cover
themselves for all eventualities.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing.

--
Freddie
Ystrad Rhondda

The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the deterministic model run.
"On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. " So at least they are now in line!

Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around 1C above normal across the country http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales & rain.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions.
Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred
(and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in
the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and
wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly
said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to
follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including
ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next
issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the
"most probable"solution at the time of writing.

--
Freddie
Ystrad Rhondda

The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the
deterministic model run. "On Friday, southeastern areas are likely
to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches
at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and
drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the
north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry,
bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the
east. " So at least they are now in line!

Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around
1C above normal across the country
http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales &
rain.

Graham
Penzance

Currently 1.1° above average in Tideswell but there is potential for
it to get below average before the end of the month. Rainfall and
sunshine both running well below average for the month so far. For the
second day running we've had a lot of fog. Not quite as cold today with
the temp now up to +1.9°. We'll all be stripping off if it gets much
hotter :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Sunday, 20 January 2019 13:22:08 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Freddie wrote:

Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions.
Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and
written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the
deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind
on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said
before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as
it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a
good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next
issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the
"most probable"solution at the time of writing.

But what is Joe Public expected to make of it? It hardly inspires
confidence in the Met Office products. Those of us on here can see how
the differences can come about but to the average punter it looks as if
they just don't know what is going on and are trying to cover
themselves for all eventualities.

Yes, very true! There is an answer of sorts in their FAQ section:

19. Why are there differences between your symbol forecasts and your map-based forecasts?

Our symbol forecasts are updated every hour to provide you with the very latest and most accurate information. Our rainfall and cloud map forecasts are currently updated every 6 hours. This sometimes results in differences between the two sets of information and we are working to address this.

I think this only tells part of the story, though, as there is the pure model v human forecast aspect too. It does look bad, TBH.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently)
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201901JAN.xlsx

On Sunday, 20 January 2019 13:26:35 UTC, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 12:03:18 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Looking at latest model output there is a wide range of solutions. Possibly the cold northeasterly solution is marginally preferred (and written about) by the human forecasters - but not reflected in the deterministic model run used for the automated temperatures and wind on display? Very confusing, I agree, but - as I've possibly said before - the "written word" is probably the best thing to follow as it will be based on multiple model runs (including ensembles) plus a good dose of experience :-)

It may all go belly up and change to a milder scenario in the next issued forecast - but the written word does tend to represent the "most probable"solution at the time of writing.

--
Freddie
Ystrad Rhondda

The written forecast has just been updated to reflect the deterministic model run.
I would suggest that it has been updated to reflect several deterministic models (not to mention the ensembles too).

Meanwhile, so far this month, temperatures are still running around 1C above normal across the country http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/anomt.jpg

Anomaly +1.2C in Penzance, together with a notable lack of gales & rain.
Same in south Wales - current anomoly is +0.9.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (very few tweets getting through currently)
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201901JAN.xlsx

Are there not two issues here? First, how human forecasters balance conflicting models and successive model runs (is the latest run always the best?.....is there a tendency for some models to over-egg blocking after about D + 5?). Second, the forecasters' and the public's perception of 'average', 'cold' etc in any given month which is where the two Grahams started this thread. At times this month I've noticed a tendency to think that average temperatures are below average. This simply feeds the public's belief that it is 'cold', even in London (overhearing conversations on trains, for example). I have been tempted to point out that it is January, but of course am far too tactful to do that (or cowardly).

Julian Mayes Molesey Surrey - and just about a perfect January day here, unbroken bright sunshine, cold, crisp, nearly calm.

In message ,
writes
Are there not two issues here? First, how human forecasters balance
conflicting models and successive model runs (is the latest run always
the best?

I've noticed on previous occasions, as well as this, that there often
seems to be a lag of a day or two between a change in what the models
are showing and the MO 6-30 day forecast changing. I suspect that, as
you imply, they may be allowing for the possibility that the models may
revert to the earlier solution.

....is there a tendency for some models to over-egg blocking after
about D + 5?). Second, the forecasters' and the public's perception of
'average', 'cold' etc in any given month which is where the two Grahams
started this thread. At times this month I've noticed a tendency to
think that average temperatures are below average. This simply feeds
the public's belief that it is 'cold', even in London (overhearing
conversations on trains, for example). I have been tempted to point out
that it is January, but of course am far too tactful to do that (or
cowardly).

Very true. Even relatively sober papers like the Telegraph seem to be
quite happy to hype up the weather. It's not helped by most news
reporters seeming to be deeply ignorant about what is normal for the
British weather.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)