Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Monday. Issued
0607z, 16/10/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
NNE'lies and NE'lies cover the UK, with low pressure over France. The low
deepens over the North Sea at T+144, bringing NW'lies, northerlies and
NE'lies over the British Isles. The low fills over the North Sea at T+168,
leaving the UK under northerlies and NE'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
High pressure lies to the NE of Iceland, with a small low to the east of
Shetland. The UK lies under light northerlies, but by T+144 light
southerlies and SW'lies cover much of the UK as the low deepens over
Ireland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Low pressure covers France, with high pressure over Iceland. NE'lies and
northerlies cover the UK as a result. The low deepens over western Germany
at T+120, resulting in NNE'ly gales over the UK. 850hPa temperatures range
from -6C over northern Scotland to freezing over southern England. A
secondary low moves over Wales at T+144, resulting in westerlies for
southern England and NNE'lies elsewhere. Variable winds cover much of the UK
at T+168 as the secondary low fills over Wales and much of England. By day 8
the UK lies under light northerlies and NE'lies, with low pressure to the
east. Much the same is true on day 9 and by day 10 easterlies cover the UK
as a low moves over NW France.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The UK lies under northerlies and NNE'lies, due to a ridge to the NW and a
low over the Baltic. The northerlies continue at T+144, with 850hPa
temperatures ranging from -5C over northern Scotland to +2C over SW England.
By T+144 a trough covers Scotland, bringing northerlies there and WNW'lies
over England, Northern Ireland and Wales.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows light low pressure over France and NE'lies for the
UK, with 850hPa temperatures varying from -6C over northern Scotland to +5C
over SW England. The NE'lies continue at T+144 and T+168, by which time high
pressure sinks southwards to cover Iceland.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows low pressure over France, with NE'lies or northerlies over
the UK.

In summary, today's runs continue to show colder conditions for Scotland at
least for the first half of next week. However, there are considerable
differences with regards to the track and intensity of lows, which adds to
the uncertanties about how far south the colder air will spread. As ever,
more runs are needed.