https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201904

The world is very warm.

On 20/05/2019 17:11, wrote:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201904

The world is very warm.


Yes, and it's only going to get warmer. The 1.5C target of IPCC will
probably be breached by 2040.

I've got more here, including latest GISS temperatures.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...limate-change/

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Monday, 20 May 2019 20:18:03 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 20/05/2019 17:11, wrote:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201904

The world is very warm.


Yes, and it's only going to get warmer. The 1.5C target of IPCC will
probably be breached by 2040.

I've got more here, including latest GISS temperatures.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...limate-change/

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Thanks Graham. The trends shown in your graph are so worrying.

On 21/05/2019 16:18, wrote:
On Monday, 20 May 2019 20:18:03 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 20/05/2019 17:11, wrote:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201904

The world is very warm.


Yes, and it's only going to get warmer. The 1.5C target of IPCC will
probably be breached by 2040.

I've got more here, including latest GISS temperatures.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...limate-change/


Thanks Graham. The trends shown in your graph are so worrying.


One thing that bothered me was the behaviour of temperatures during and
after the Great Depression. As you might have expected, CO2
concentration flat-lined but temperatures raced upwards for a decade,
even faster than what we've seen more recently and didn't start to fall
until during WWII. Although other pressures may have had an effect, I
think that sudden rise may have been due to the atmosphere becoming
cleaner due to shutdown of industries. It suggests to me that something
of the sort might happen again as cleaner technologies replace fossil
fuels. So we perhaps should factor in a 10-25 year delay for CO2 cuts to
register an effect on temperature along with an additional, jump jump in
temperatures due to cleaner air.

I've also got some odd thoughts - perhaps with the accent on "odd" -
regarding the current circulation of the North Atlantic, some of which
*may* be causing the cold puddle south of Greenland.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...f-stream-stop/

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On 21/05/2019 17:09, Graham P Davis wrote:

I've also got some odd thoughts - perhaps with the accent on "odd" -
regarding the current circulation of the North Atlantic, some of which
*may* be causing the cold puddle south of Greenland.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...f-stream-stop/


Though if verified could this theory translate into a slight if
temporary reprieve for the UK from the worst effects of GW? Any
estimates of the climatic effects of a flipped NAD, maybe -2C? (Just an
observation, not an excuse for inaction!)

On Tuesday, 21 May 2019 19:24:51 UTC+1, JGD wrote:
On 21/05/2019 17:09, Graham P Davis wrote:

I've also got some odd thoughts - perhaps with the accent on "odd" -
regarding the current circulation of the North Atlantic, some of which
*may* be causing the cold puddle south of Greenland.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...f-stream-stop/


Though if verified could this theory translate into a slight if
temporary reprieve for the UK from the worst effects of GW? Any
estimates of the climatic effects of a flipped NAD, maybe -2C? (Just an
observation, not an excuse for inaction!)
I think one of the worst effects will be the sea level rise. A flipped NAD may bring about a cooler climate to our shores, but not the world as a whole. Therefore the sea level rise will continue and will still affect the UK.

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...201905MAY.xlsx

JGD wrote:

On 21/05/2019 17:09, Graham P Davis wrote:

I've also got some odd thoughts - perhaps with the accent on "odd"
- regarding the current circulation of the North Atlantic, some of
which may be causing the cold puddle south of Greenland.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...l-the-gulf-str
eam-stop/

Though if verified could this theory translate into a slight if
temporary reprieve for the UK from the worst effects of GW? Any
estimates of the climatic effects of a flipped NAD, maybe -2C? (Just
an observation, not an excuse for inaction!)

The worst effects will probably be sea level rise and that's completely
independent of any local temperature fall.

There's one piece of research published today which is predicting the
possibility of a 2m rise in sea level by the end of this century.
Whether or not that is at all likely, it's certainly not impossible. I
doubt very much if Central London would remain viable in that sort of
scenario.

If all of the ice in Greenland and the Antarctic melted the sea level
would rise by something like 70m. Therefore, if only 1% of the ice
melted the sea level would rise by about 0.7m. That's enough to cause
enormous problems around the world.

It's all very worrying. My guess is that there are probably so many
unknown unknowns that any research, whether optimistic or pessimistic,
is likely to be very unreliable.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 21/05/2019 19:24, JGD wrote:
On 21/05/2019 17:09, Graham P Davis wrote:

I've also got some odd thoughts - perhaps with the accent on "odd" -
regarding the current circulation of the North Atlantic, some of which
*may* be causing the cold puddle south of Greenland.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...f-stream-stop/


Though if verified could this theory translate into a slight if
temporary reprieve for the UK from the worst effects of GW? Any
estimates of the climatic effects of a flipped NAD, maybe -2C? (Just an
observation, not an excuse for inaction!)


I suspect the cooling effect might be more but it could be offset by a
reduction in blocking easterlies in winter. The enhanced N-S thermal
contrast along the new Gulf Stream-NAD boundary ought to lead to a more
zonal atmospheric pattern. This may mean the cooling effect would be
stronger in summer than winter.

Another effect would be that I think the tropical waters would warm more
quickly as the circulation becomes more closed. This would lead to
higher sea levels along the eastern seaboard of the USA and higher
frequency of hurricanes hitting the northern regions of that coast. I
remember reading that this has happened in previous similar situations.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
With great power comes great electricity bill.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Monday, May 20, 2019 at 6:11:52 PM UTC+2, wrote:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201904

The world is very warm.

Great stuff - just what we want. Who wants to freeze their gonads off - life thrives in warmth...

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