GISS has switched to its new dataset GISTEMP v4. Here are the figures
from the new dataset. Details of this change may be found on their
website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v4/


Global temperature anomalies for May. Differences are wrt IPCC
"pre-industrial" era. This period is better described as the Early
Industrial Era and probably underestimates the true anomaly by about 0.2C.

2016: +1.15C
2017: +1.09C
2019: +1.07C
2014: +1.05C
2018: +1.02C
2015: +0.98C

12-month anomalies ending in the month of May.
2015-16: +1.24C
2016-17: +1.15C
2018-19: +1.10C
2017-18: +1.05C
2014-15: +0.98C

Graph of temperature anomalies has been updated at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.� -
George Carlin.
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On 04/07/2019 17:55, Graham P Davis wrote:
GISS has switched to its new dataset GISTEMP v4. Here are the figures
from the new dataset. Details of this change may be found on their
website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v4/


Global temperature anomalies for May. Differences are wrt IPCC
"pre-industrial" era. This period is better described as the Early
Industrial Era and probably underestimates the true anomaly by about 0.2C.

2016: +1.15C
2017: +1.09C
2019: +1.07C
2014: +1.05C
2018: +1.02C
2015: +0.98C

12-month anomalies ending in the month of May.
2015-16: +1.24C
2016-17: +1.15C
2018-19: +1.10C
2017-18: +1.05C
2014-15: +0.98C

Graph of temperature anomalies has been updated at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


El Nino or not?
no update here the last time I looked (first thursday of July)
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
but then I don't understand how their running quarter contains the 3 to
4 weeks yet to come.

My colour-binning pixel-counting NOAA SST anomaly for sea-area El Nino
3.4 from
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.4.2019.gif
is on the way up again it would seem,
having to go back to 1953 for any previous long duration lock-in to a
half-hearted El Nino
2019 Year day number, anomaly in deg C
140: Nino +0.84
143: Nino +0.93
147: Nino +0.89
150: Nino +1.07
154: Nino +1.00
157: Nino +0.89
161: Nino +0.91
164: Nino +0.91
168: Nino +0.92
171: Nino +0.77
175: Nino +0.75
178:Nino +0.60
182 (01 July 2019): Nino +0.68
185 (04 July 2019): Nino +0.83

On 04/07/2019 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 04/07/2019 17:55, Graham P Davis wrote:
GISS has switched to its new dataset GISTEMP v4. Here are the figures
from the new dataset. Details of this change may be found on their
website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v4/


Global temperature anomalies for May. Differences are wrt IPCC
"pre-industrial" era. This period is better described as the Early
Industrial Era and probably underestimates the true anomaly by about
0.2C.

2016: +1.15C
2017: +1.09C
2019: +1.07C
2014: +1.05C
2018: +1.02C
2015: +0.98C

12-month anomalies ending in the month of May.
2015-16: +1.24C
2016-17: +1.15C
2018-19: +1.10C
2017-18: +1.05C
2014-15: +0.98C

Graph of temperature anomalies has been updated at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


El Nino or not?
no update here the last time I looked (first thursday ofÂ* July)
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

but then I don't understand how their running quarter contains the 3 to
4 weeks yet to come.

My colour-binning pixel-counting NOAA SST anomaly for sea-area El Nino
3.4 from
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.4.2019.gif
Â*is on the way up again it would seem,
having to go back to 1953 for any previous long duration lock-in to a
half-hearted El Nino
2019 Year day number, anomaly in deg C
140: Nino +0.84
143: Nino +0.93
147: Nino +0.89
150: Nino +1.07
154: Nino +1.00
157: Nino +0.89
161: Nino +0.91
164: Nino +0.91
168: Nino +0.92
171: Nino +0.77
175: Nino +0.75
178:Nino +0.60
182 (01 July 2019): Nino +0.68
185 (04 July 2019): Nino +0.83


The NCEP CFS.v2 ensemble forecast predicts a return to ENSO_neutral
during July. I don't usually put much faith in this but the cooling in
depth in the Pacific plus successive Kelvin waves producing less warming
each time makes me think they could be right.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

On 04/07/2019 20:58, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 04/07/2019 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 04/07/2019 17:55, Graham P Davis wrote:
GISS has switched to its new dataset GISTEMP v4. Here are the figures
from the new dataset. Details of this change may be found on their
website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v4/


Global temperature anomalies for May. Differences are wrt IPCC
"pre-industrial" era. This period is better described as the Early
Industrial Era and probably underestimates the true anomaly by about
0.2C.

2016: +1.15C
2017: +1.09C
2019: +1.07C
2014: +1.05C
2018: +1.02C
2015: +0.98C

12-month anomalies ending in the month of May.
2015-16: +1.24C
2016-17: +1.15C
2018-19: +1.10C
2017-18: +1.05C
2014-15: +0.98C

Graph of temperature anomalies has been updated at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


El Nino or not?
no update here the last time I looked (first thursday of July)
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

but then I don't understand how their running quarter contains the 3
to 4 weeks yet to come.

My colour-binning pixel-counting NOAA SST anomaly for sea-area El Nino
3.4 from
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.4.2019.gif
is on the way up again it would seem,
having to go back to 1953 for any previous long duration lock-in to a
half-hearted El Nino
2019 Year day number, anomaly in deg C
140: Nino +0.84
143: Nino +0.93
147: Nino +0.89
150: Nino +1.07
154: Nino +1.00
157: Nino +0.89
161: Nino +0.91
164: Nino +0.91
168: Nino +0.92
171: Nino +0.77
175: Nino +0.75
178:Nino +0.60
182 (01 July 2019): Nino +0.68
185 (04 July 2019): Nino +0.83


The NCEP CFS.v2 ensemble forecast predicts a return to ENSO_neutral
during July. I don't usually put much faith in this but the cooling in
depth in the Pacific plus successive Kelvin waves producing less warming
each time makes me think they could be right.


I see Oz BOM is going for extended half-hearted El Nino for more than a
year, ie more than the 1953 locked-in quasi-stable ? "oscillation",
whatever that means for a new normal, permanent?[ no reply back from my
em to the NOC (Southampton) expert on this topic ].
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#region=NINO34
NINO34 probabilities Month
Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019
NINO34 0.7? 0.5? 0.5? 0.6? 0.7? 0.8?
below -0.8? 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
neutral 56.6% 70.7% 70.7% 60.6% 52.5% 42.4%
above 0.8? 43.4% 29.3% 29.3% 39.4% 47.5% 57.6%

On 06/07/2019 09:47, N_Cook wrote:
On 04/07/2019 20:58, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 04/07/2019 20:21, N_Cook wrote:
On 04/07/2019 17:55, Graham P Davis wrote:
GISS has switched to its new dataset GISTEMP v4. Here are the figures
from the new dataset. Details of this change may be found on their
website: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v4/


Global temperature anomalies for May. Differences are wrt IPCC
"pre-industrial" era. This period is better described as the Early
Industrial Era and probably underestimates the true anomaly by about
0.2C.

2016: +1.15C
2017: +1.09C
2019: +1.07C
2014: +1.05C
2018: +1.02C
2015: +0.98C

12-month anomalies ending in the month of May.
2015-16: +1.24C
2016-17: +1.15C
2018-19: +1.10C
2017-18: +1.05C
2014-15: +0.98C

Graph of temperature anomalies has been updated at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


El Nino or not?
no update here the last time I looked (first thursday of July)
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php


but then I don't understand how their running quarter contains the 3
to 4 weeks yet to come.

My colour-binning pixel-counting NOAA SST anomaly for sea-area El Nino
3.4 from
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.4.2019.gif
is on the way up again it would seem,
having to go back to 1953 for any previous long duration lock-in to a
half-hearted El Nino
2019 Year day number, anomaly in deg C
140: Nino +0.84
143: Nino +0.93
147: Nino +0.89
150: Nino +1.07
154: Nino +1.00
157: Nino +0.89
161: Nino +0.91
164: Nino +0.91
168: Nino +0.92
171: Nino +0.77
175: Nino +0.75
178:Nino +0.60
182 (01 July 2019): Nino +0.68
185 (04 July 2019): Nino +0.83


The NCEP CFS.v2 ensemble forecast predicts a return to ENSO_neutral
during July. I don't usually put much faith in this but the cooling in
depth in the Pacific plus successive Kelvin waves producing less warming
each time makes me think they could be right.


I see Oz BOM is going for extended half-hearted El Nino for more than a
year, ie more than the 1953 locked-in quasi-stable ? "oscillation",
whatever that means for a new normal, permanent?[ no reply back from my
em to the NOC (Southampton) expert on this topic ].
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#region=NINO34
NINO34 probabilities Month
Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019
Dec 2019
NINO34 0.7? 0.5? 0.5? 0.6? 0.7? 0.8?
below -0.8? 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
neutral 56.6% 70.7% 70.7% 60.6% 52.5% 42.4%
above 0.8? 43.4% 29.3% 29.3% 39.4% 47.5% 57.6%





1953 half-hearted El Nino Feb 1953 to Feb 1954
2019 , Oct 2018 to perhaps Dec 2019

from
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/i/fact_sheet_no._9_updated.pdf

(can probably exclude march 1953 references below as ENSO is in the
Pacific and hardly stated in 1953)
1953, 9th highest annual mean temperature , Scotland
lowest march monthly rain NI
2nd lowest annual rain NI
8th lowest rain England
Highest 30-minute rain total: 80 mm Eskdalemuir (Dumfriesshire) 26 June 1953
Highest March pressure 1047.9 hPa St Mary’s Airport (Isles of Scilly) 9
March 1953
Lowest September pressure 957.1 hPa Claremorris (Co. Mayo) 21 September 1953

1954
Lowest monthly temp February –20.0 °C Welshpool (Powys) 2 February 1954
2nd highest annual rain Wales 1768.2 mm 1954
4th highest annual rain Scotland 1716.5 mm 1954
4th highest annual rain NI, 1276.6 mm 1954
6th highest annual rain England , 992.3 mm 1954
The highest rainfall total in one year in the United Kingdom was 6,528
mm recorded at Sprinkling Tarn (Cumbria) in 1954
5th lowest sunshine England 1282.6 hours 1954
8th lowest sunshine Wales, 1277.9 hours 1954
8th lowest sunshine Scotland , 1124.7 hours 1954

So if any correlation with extremes in the UK then high rainfall and
followon of low sunshine.