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Old October 16th 03, 08:44 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 12Z Model Summary - Thursday 16th October 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Monday 20th October 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
High pressure (1030mb) lies over and to the east of Greenland and
ridges southwards into the Atlantic, where another centre (1025mb)
lies. Low pressure (1005mb) lies over Central Europe, with another low
(1005mb) lying to the northeast of Scandinavia. Winds across the UK
are moderate northeasterlies. Showers are likely to affect windward
coasts, these showers wintry in the north and over the hills.
Temperatures will be below normal in many parts, with night frosts.
Beyond this there is little change with further showers, wintry at
times, likely in the north and east.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies over with a secondary cell (1030mb) to the
southeast of Greenland and ridges southwestwards into the
mid-Atlantic. Low pressure (1000mb) lies over Central Europe, with
another low (1000mb) close to Northeast Scandinavia. Winds across the
UK are mostly moderate northeasterlies. Many northern and eastern
parts will be see showers, these wintry over the hills and in the
north. The driest weather will be to the south and west. 850hPa
temperatures are range from -7C in the north to -1C along the south
coast of England. Forecast 2m temperatures range from +5C over the
Scottish Highlands to +11C in the southwest, with the possibility of
some sharp night frosts. Beyond this low pressure to the east and
southeast of the UK continues to pull in cold north/northeasterly
winds for a time with further showers, possibly turning wintry almost
anywhere for a time.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...161200_096.gif
High pressure (1045mb) lies over with a secondary cell (1040mb) to the
southeast of Greenland and ridges southwestwards into the
mid-Atlantic. Low pressure (1005mb) lies over the Bay of Biscay, with
another low (1000mb) over the Batlic Sea. Winds across the UK are
mostly light to moderate east/northeasterlies. Many northern and
eastern parts will be see showers, these wintry over the hills and in
the north. The driest weather will be to the south and west.
Temperatures will be close to or just below normal, with night frosts.
Beyond this most parts stay on the cold side with showers at times
almost anywhere.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
High pressure (1040mb) lies over and to the east of Greenland and
ridges strongly southwards into the Atlantic. Low pressure (1000mb)
lies over France and the Low Countries. Winds across the UK are
moderate northeasterlies. Showers are likely to affect windward
coasts, these showers wintry in the north and over the hills. 850hPa
temperatures range from -3C in the north to 0C in the south.
Temperatures will be below normal in many parts, with night frosts.
Beyond this winds tend to die out, with showers also dying out and
most places mostly dry and cool.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1045mb) lies over Greenland and ridges strongly
southwards into the Atlantic. Low pressure (1005mb) lies over France.
Winds across the UK are mainly moderate northeasterlies. Showers are
likely to affect most windward coasts, these showers turning wintry in
the north and over the hills. 850hPa temperatures range from -7C in
the far north to 0C over Central Britain to +5C in the far southwest.
Temperatures will be close to or below normal in many parts, with
night frosts. Beyond this winds tend to die out, with showers also
dying out and most places mostly dry and cool for a time before
possibly turning more unsettled later.

Canadian – T+72 hours for SUNDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure (1039mb and 1042mb) lies close to Greenland. Low
pressure (1000mb) lies close to the Bay of Biscay. The UK lies under
moderate winds, mostly from a easterly direction, but backing more
northeasterly in the north as a cold front moves south. Most southern
areas will be mostly dry and fine, but with a band of cloud and patchy
rain moving south followed by colder weather and a few showers into
the northeast. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal in most
areas - turning colder in the northeast.

Summary:
A rather chilly outlook as we go into next week, with most parts set
to see colder northeasterly winds for a time. These winds will bring
showers to northern and eastern areas, and some of these showers may
turn wintry at times, especially over the hills. Night frosts look set
to become more widespread.
 
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