I've been away for the past few weeks so not contributing to u.s.w.
much but still reading it.

I'm surprised that there's been no comment on the Met Office
announcement about the publication of UKCP Local, the new high
resolution climate change prediction for the UK. What struck me is that
the predictions are based on a global warming of 4 deg C by the 2070s
compared to the 1981-2000 global temperature. This equates to a global
warming of 5 deg C from pre-industrial times. Global warming of this
magnitude would be catastrophic, especially as early as the 2070s. The
Met Office announcement did point out that warming of this level was
not neceessarily the most likely but implied 'better safe than sorry'.

More details at

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's also a Fact Sheet that can be found by Googling 'UKCP Local'.


Norman
(usually in Tideswell}

--

On Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:43:27 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I've been away for the past few weeks so not contributing to u.s.w.
much but still reading it.

I'm surprised that there's been no comment on the Met Office
announcement about the publication of UKCP Local, the new high
resolution climate change prediction for the UK. What struck me is that
the predictions are based on a global warming of 4 deg C by the 2070s
compared to the 1981-2000 global temperature. This equates to a global
warming of 5 deg C from pre-industrial times. Global warming of this
magnitude would be catastrophic, especially as early as the 2070s. The
Met Office announcement did point out that warming of this level was
not neceessarily the most likely but implied 'better safe than sorry'.

More details at

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's also a Fact Sheet that can be found by Googling 'UKCP Local'.


Norman
(usually in Tideswell}

--

I was reading a paper yesterday (Western Morning News, it's rubbish but was lying about on a train). There were 2 articles on the front page. One said it was good the way climate activists were raising awareness of climate change. The other saying the new Heathrow Runway will be great, as there would be more flights to Newquay, to compliment the new spaceport.

I think that rather demonstrates why the chance of anything meaningful being down is virtually nil, even if we had politicians running the world who cared for something more than themselves. (Well I've always been slightly anarchic!). Meanwhile in Indonesia & the Amazon. . .

On a positive note the beach'll be at the bottom of my garden soon!

Graham
Penzance

On 22/09/2019 20:43, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I've been away for the past few weeks so not contributing to u.s.w.
much but still reading it.

I'm surprised that there's been no comment on the Met Office
announcement about the publication of UKCP Local, the new high
resolution climate change prediction for the UK. What struck me is that
the predictions are based on a global warming of 4 deg C by the 2070s
compared to the 1981-2000 global temperature. This equates to a global
warming of 5 deg C from pre-industrial times. Global warming of this
magnitude would be catastrophic, especially as early as the 2070s. The
Met Office announcement did point out that warming of this level was
not neceessarily the most likely but implied 'better safe than sorry'.

More details at

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's also a Fact Sheet that can be found by Googling 'UKCP Local'.


Seems they're using a worst-case scenario for the experiment. If there'
no change to CO2 output and no tipping points, my figures suggest global
temperatures will be at 2.1C above IPCC's "pre-industrial era" average
by 2070. A reduction to zero emissions by 2050 lowers the 2070 figure to
about 1.75C after peaking at 1.8C in 2060.

Note: add 0.2C to the above figures to get the difference from a more
realistic pre-Industrial Era average.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.� [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

Graham P Davis wrote:

On 22/09/2019 20:43, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I've been away for the past few weeks so not contributing to u.s.w.
much but still reading it.

I'm surprised that there's been no comment on the Met Office
announcement about the publication of UKCP Local, the new high
resolution climate change prediction for the UK. What struck me is
that the predictions are based on a global warming of 4 deg C by
the 2070s compared to the 1981-2000 global temperature. This
equates to a global warming of 5 deg C from pre-industrial times.
Global warming of this magnitude would be catastrophic, especially
as early as the 2070s. The Met Office announcement did point out
that warming of this level was not neceessarily the most likely but
implied 'better safe than sorry'.

More details at

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's also a Fact Sheet that can be found by Googling 'UKCP
Local'.


Seems they're using a worst-case scenario for the experiment. If
there' no change to CO2 output and no tipping points, my figures
suggest global temperatures will be at 2.1C above IPCC's
"pre-industrial era" average by 2070. A reduction to zero emissions
by 2050 lowers the 2070 figure to about 1.75C after peaking at 1.8C
in 2060.

Note: add 0.2C to the above figures to get the difference from a more
realistic pre-Industrial Era average.

But who's to say that the worst case scenario won't be right. We're in
uncharted waters here. If the Met Office used a scenario that's very
unlikely to happen what's the value of their results?

--

On Monday, September 23, 2019 at 7:37:01 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On 22/09/2019 20:43, Norman Lynagh wrote:
I've been away for the past few weeks so not contributing to u.s.w.
much but still reading it.

I'm surprised that there's been no comment on the Met Office
announcement about the publication of UKCP Local, the new high
resolution climate change prediction for the UK. What struck me is
that the predictions are based on a global warming of 4 deg C by
the 2070s compared to the 1981-2000 global temperature. This
equates to a global warming of 5 deg C from pre-industrial times.
Global warming of this magnitude would be catastrophic, especially
as early as the 2070s. The Met Office announcement did point out
that warming of this level was not neceessarily the most likely but
implied 'better safe than sorry'.

More details at

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's also a Fact Sheet that can be found by Googling 'UKCP
Local'.


Seems they're using a worst-case scenario for the experiment. If
there' no change to CO2 output and no tipping points, my figures
suggest global temperatures will be at 2.1C above IPCC's
"pre-industrial era" average by 2070. A reduction to zero emissions
by 2050 lowers the 2070 figure to about 1.75C after peaking at 1.8C
in 2060.

Note: add 0.2C to the above figures to get the difference from a more
realistic pre-Industrial Era average.

But who's to say that the worst case scenario won't be right. We're in
uncharted waters here. If the Met Office used a scenario that's very
unlikely to happen what's the value of their results?

--

I posted this on 16 Sep on weather and climate google group and it is backed up by The Royal Met Soc. Climate Science Communications Group article in Weather Sep 2019 which states 'The ability of state of the art climate models to simulate weather events varies strongly between different types of events and different regions which directly relates to the confidence in attribution statements.....we cannot currently attribute (to global warming) small scale events such as flash floods, hail storms or tornadoes.'

Met Office are trumpeting these small scale climate projections.
It strikes me that just because they now have the computing power to run the model at this resolution then they do regardless.
They claim they can predict extremes at this resolution from the weather forecasting models.
High intensity rainfall is not predicted well at this resolution IMHO.

Are they saying from a climate point of view they can project where on the scale of 2.2 km floods are going to occur?

I do not believe the models handle Cunim scale convection well yet so are unlikely to do so for climate models.

It is clearly a case of the science lagging behind the computing power.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-u...019/ukcp-local

Len
Webury