ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


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On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:32:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


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GFS gives it arriving at our lat Thurs/Fri next week heading for Iceland.
Gales forecast for west coast of Ireland but not the English Channel atm.
Track of course could change one week ahead.

Len
Wembury

On 26/09/2019 17:19, wrote:
On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:32:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
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GFS gives it arriving at our lat Thurs/Fri next week heading for Iceland.
Gales forecast for west coast of Ireland but not the English Channel atm.
Track of course could change one week ahead.

Len
Wembury



Just as ECMWF goes up to 950mb central pressure passing 50 deg N, US
Navy model drops it to about 930mB.
Latest NHC
5 days out 01 Oct/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 105 MPH maximum wind

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On 26/09/2019 19:58, N_Cook wrote:
On 26/09/2019 17:19, wrote:
On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:32:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
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GFS gives it arriving at our lat Thurs/Fri next week heading for Iceland.
Gales forecast for west coast of Ireland but not the English Channel atm.
Track of course could change one week ahead.

Len
Wembury



Just as ECMWF goes up to 950mb central pressure passing 50 deg N, US
Navy model drops it to about 930mB.
Latest NHC
5 days out 01 Oct/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 105 MPH maximum wind


Perhaps Hurricane Lorenzo will give the coupe-de-grace to this
parliament. The Canadian model wants to send it to southern England. The
Elizabeth Tower probably held up by 2 Acrows currently and loads of
elfin safety windcatching material around the scaffolding.


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On 27/09/2019 19:15, N_Cook wrote:

Perhaps Hurricane Lorenzo will give the coupe-de-grace to this
parliament. The Canadian model wants to send it to southern England. The
Elizabeth Tower probably held up by 2 Acrows currently and loads of
elfin safety windcatching material around the scaffolding.

And now ECMWF has decided to send part of Hurricane Lorenzo to southern
England, for 04 Oct
Lorenzo has broken one record , recorded maximum wind of 145 mph makes
it the strongest hurricane east of 45°W in the Atlantic .

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On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 5:19:58 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:32:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
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GFS gives it arriving at our lat Thurs/Fri next week heading for Iceland.
Gales forecast for west coast of Ireland but not the English Channel atm.
Track of course could change one week ahead.

Len
Wembury

Certainly looks bad for the western half of Ireland, and the Hebrides,
Still a way off of course.

Graham
Penzance

On 28/09/2019 10:25, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 5:19:58 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:32:22 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
ECMWF has the "low" dropping from 955mB to 935mB passing 50 deg N ,
currently about 1000 miles west of the UK.
NHC has continued hurricane status out to 01 Oct, 31.9N 39.1W.


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
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GFS gives it arriving at our lat Thurs/Fri next week heading for Iceland.
Gales forecast for west coast of Ireland but not the English Channel atm.
Track of course could change one week ahead.

Len
Wembury

Certainly looks bad for the western half of Ireland, and the Hebrides,
Still a way off of course.

Graham
Penzance


Japanese and Canadian models have it gunning for France, so a more
eastward,Eng Channel track, has a leg.
At least NHC has put a post-tropical storm label to it a bit before then


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In message , N_Cook
writes
Japanese and Canadian models have it gunning for France, so a more
eastward,Eng Channel track, has a leg.
At least NHC has put a post-tropical storm label to it a bit before
then

The 12Z GFS shows it filling rapidly as it approaches the Brest
peninsula. So does the 12Z UKMO. (The 12Z ECMWF isn't yet out as I
type.)
--
John Hall
"If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come
sit next to me."
Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)

On 27/09/2019 19:15, N_Cook wrote:

Perhaps Hurricane Lorenzo will give the coupe-de-grace to this
parliament. The Canadian model wants to send it to southern England. The
Elizabeth Tower probably held up by 2 Acrows currently and loads of
elfin safety windcatching material around the scaffolding.

NHC upgraded it to a full cat5 hurricane, where is Michael Fish?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023639.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/290235.shtml?

delayed losing hurricane status until near enough UK airspace
"Lorenzo becomes the strongest
hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.
....
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.2N 44.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
"


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For middle England it looks like the follow-on second wind spiral could
be more problematic, 0Z GFS and German models agree timing and position


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