From Nov 2019 Aviso update (maybe still off-line again, was ther a few
days ago)
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m. txt
and
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_NoGIA_Adjust_Filter2 m.txt

No-GIA data excludes 0.3mm per year from "zero" of about 1993.173659
but only up
to 2017 and approximate , needs more insight to unravel fully.
610 datapoints from 2003.002659 to 2019.589818 , again I've ignored the
early altimetry
missions because of the instrument drift but mainly it took about a
decade for the SLR suppression by Mount Pinatubo , to drop out of
consideration, effectively linearising any would-have-been acceleration
in SLR ( see the work of Stephen Nerem).
It also allows a convenient time axis zero of year 2000.
Starting after the beginning of Jason1, to avoid some of the cross-over
mismatch, but from visual inspection of SLR plots, about the
re-emergence of accelerated rise, curving upwards, no longer linear
being a representative fit.
Using a www curve-fit number cruncher on those 610 datapoints, so anyome
else with access to a curve-fitter could check my results, hopefully
using a different agency.
For the following y is cm of global SLR in Aviso terms and x is the
decimal year
minus 2000. Again ranking in terms of "goodness" R^2 indicial form
remains the best fit.

linear, R^2 =0.969321
y= 1.394912 + 0.369895 *x
For year 2100
SLR 38.28cm

exponential, R^2= 0.982114
y= 2.258757 -3.814849*(1-e^(x*0.052559))
For 2100
7.292metres

quadratic, R^2= 0.982546
y= 2.447193 + 0.14249 *x + 0.010067 * x^2
For 2100
1.17metres

indicial, R^2, = 0.982663
y = 2.678741 + 0.056302*x^1.590879
For 2100, SLR
88.24cm

My earlier processing of Aviso SLR ,but graphical rather than text
outputs, at the end of the file off the URL in the sig, replacing scicaf
with solent.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

On Wednesday, 6 November 2019 16:11:53 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
From Nov 2019 Aviso update (maybe still off-line again, was ther a few
days ago)
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m. txt
and
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_NoGIA_Adjust_Filter2 m.txt

No-GIA data excludes 0.3mm per year from "zero" of about 1993.173659
but only up
to 2017 and approximate , needs more insight to unravel fully.
610 datapoints from 2003.002659 to 2019.589818 , again I've ignored the
early altimetry
missions because of the instrument drift but mainly it took about a
decade for the SLR suppression by Mount Pinatubo , to drop out of
consideration, effectively linearising any would-have-been acceleration
in SLR ( see the work of Stephen Nerem).
It also allows a convenient time axis zero of year 2000.
Starting after the beginning of Jason1, to avoid some of the cross-over
mismatch, but from visual inspection of SLR plots, about the
re-emergence of accelerated rise, curving upwards, no longer linear
being a representative fit.
Using a www curve-fit number cruncher on those 610 datapoints, so anyome
else with access to a curve-fitter could check my results, hopefully
using a different agency.
For the following y is cm of global SLR in Aviso terms and x is the
decimal year
minus 2000. Again ranking in terms of "goodness" R^2 indicial form
remains the best fit.

linear, R^2 =0.969321
y= 1.394912 + 0.369895 *x
For year 2100
SLR 38.28cm

exponential, R^2= 0.982114
y= 2.258757 -3.814849*(1-e^(x*0.052559))
For 2100
7.292metres

quadratic, R^2= 0.982546
y= 2.447193 + 0.14249 *x + 0.010067 * x^2
For 2100
1.17metres

indicial, R^2, = 0.982663
y = 2.678741 + 0.056302*x^1.590879
For 2100, SLR
88.24cm

My earlier processing of Aviso SLR ,but graphical rather than text
outputs, at the end of the file off the URL in the sig, replacing scicaf
with solent.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

I think that rules out linear but not neccessarily exponential.

I think that rules out linear but not neccessarily exponential.


So for the 70m of SLR for all Antarctic melt, by year 2143, if that
exponential held :-(

Its not so clear cut between quadratic and indicial.
There is so much revisionism going on of these current and past
altimetry measurements , its impossible to compare the history of this
curve-fitting, comparing apples and pears. But chopping back the latest
output of heavily revised data. The only thing set is stone is the GIA ,
precisely the thing that is not set in stone litterally and
figuratively, because of the unknown unknowns relating to the stone
underlying the world's oceans, let alone the known unknowns.
At least with all that revisionism , it makes me more comfortable
starting my processing at 2003.0 , not 1993 the actual start of the
altimetry SLR era, so excluding a decade of the post-Pinatubo years.
Perhaps 0.88m projection SLR for 2100 is about the minimum to expect.
The next Aviso public output is likely to be about 2 months time.
588 datapoints 2003 to 2019.0
Quadratic
y=2.467318 + 0.137333*x +0.010339*x^2
for 2100 , 1.196m

indicial
y= 2.688470 +0.054761*x^1.600479
for 2100, 0.897m

***********
551 datapoints 2003 to 2018.0

quadratic
y= 2.620858 +0.096916*x +0.012545*x^2
For 2100, 1.378m

indicial
y=2.795849 +0.039033*x^1.719367
For 2100, 1.090m

**********
514 datapoints 2003 to 2017.0

quadratic
y=2.794919 +0.049351*x + 0.015264*x^2
For 2100, 1.604m

indicial
y=2.9154 +0.024716*x^1.88367
For 2100, 1.476m

*********
ratioing quad/indicial century SLR, to the latest 1.17/0.882= 1.326
to 2019.0, 1.334
to 2018.0, 1.264
to 2017.0, 1.087
and R^2 values for indicial and quadratic are very close and for the
2003 to 2018.0 processing, by R^2, the quadratic was actually the better
fit compared to the indicial.
Next project is to plot out the Aviso 2003 to latest data and the linear
"fit" and indicial curve.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

These curve-fits plotted out
http://diverse.4mg.com/SLR_curve-fit_r.jpg
If you're disallowed to view directly (they cannot insert ads to a pic),
go to
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm
first


--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

On Wednesday, 6 November 2019 16:11:53 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
From Nov 2019 Aviso update (maybe still off-line again, was ther a few
days ago)
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m. txt
and
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_NoGIA_Adjust_Filter2 m.txt

No-GIA data excludes 0.3mm per year from "zero" of about 1993.173659
but only up
to 2017 and approximate , needs more insight to unravel fully.
610 datapoints from 2003.002659 to 2019.589818 , again I've ignored the
early altimetry
missions because of the instrument drift but mainly it took about a
decade for the SLR suppression by Mount Pinatubo , to drop out of
consideration, effectively linearising any would-have-been acceleration
in SLR ( see the work of Stephen Nerem).
It also allows a convenient time axis zero of year 2000.
Starting after the beginning of Jason1, to avoid some of the cross-over
mismatch, but from visual inspection of SLR plots, about the
re-emergence of accelerated rise, curving upwards, no longer linear
being a representative fit.
Using a www curve-fit number cruncher on those 610 datapoints, so anyome
else with access to a curve-fitter could check my results, hopefully
using a different agency.
For the following y is cm of global SLR in Aviso terms and x is the
decimal year
minus 2000. Again ranking in terms of "goodness" R^2 indicial form
remains the best fit.

linear, R^2 =0.969321
y= 1.394912 + 0.369895 *x
For year 2100
SLR 38.28cm

exponential, R^2= 0.982114
y= 2.258757 -3.814849*(1-e^(x*0.052559))
For 2100
7.292metres

quadratic, R^2= 0.982546
y= 2.447193 + 0.14249 *x + 0.010067 * x^2
For 2100
1.17metres

indicial, R^2, = 0.982663
y = 2.678741 + 0.056302*x^1.590879
For 2100, SLR
88.24cm

My earlier processing of Aviso SLR ,but graphical rather than text
outputs, at the end of the file off the URL in the sig, replacing scicaf
with solent.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
http://diverse.4mg.com/scicaf.htm

"because of the instrument drift"
WTF?
How may miles of "instrument drift" equates to a cotidal line?