Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#21
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Tuesday, January 7, 2020 at 9:24:17 AM UTC, Spike wrote:
On 06/01/2020 10:46, Graham Easterling wrote: On Monday, January 6, 2020 at 9:12:26 AM UTC, Spike wrote: On 05/01/2020 12:02, Keith Harris wrote: All it's doing is just delaying action and as each year goes by it is just getting progressively worse. We can see what's happening around the world, how bad has it got to get? "It" appears to have got bad enough that the climate catastrophe industry now has to be fronted by a schoolgirl variously described as Aspergic, OCD-suffering, and depressive, rather than in this case by scientists proving that their climate models have finally matched the reality. I kept out of this until now as my views are well known on USW, and the thread was sadly deteriorating. The thread started to deteriorate when Paul Garvey posted a link to Spencer's page and said "There's always one". However, as someone involved with the subject you have raised (I have an autistic daughter), to attack someone with conviction because she is aspergic has crossed a line for me. People with aspergers are typically of above average intelligence and tend to focus on 1 subject, Chris Packham is a well known example. So they are worth listening to. I didn't attack her, but merely noted characteristics that in turn have been mentioned by her supporters, such as the following from the family's book: "After years of depression, eating disorders, and anxiety attacks, she finally receives a medical diagnosis: Asperger’s syndrome, high-functioning autism, and OCD. She also suffers from selective mutism—which explains why she sometimes can’t speak to anyone outside her closest family". The book is available on Amazon, if you don't already have a copy. But in any case convictions are quite irrelevant here. This is not a religion, it is a scientific subject. To dismiss her so rather displays a side of you I hadn't spotted before.. I doubt she could offer any scientific-based comment or insight more significant than "We need that line to bend down" into the data or analysis contained in Spencer's graph, which was the point of my comment that was pushed to one side in the rush to condemn. Once upon a time the climate change industry used science to put forward their case. The wheels fell off that wagon when it became obvious that the models on which so much apparently depended did not predict anything that had occurred in the real world. Consequently, the perception-management of the issue moved to the political/emotive sphere, where it is now fronted as described. It appears that the believers cannot or will not discuss science that appears to be off-message, especially if that threatens to challenge their cherished beliefs - as has been so clearly demonstrated in this thread. -- Spike It was you that introduced her name into the thread, with the sole purpose of mocking & rubbishing both her and the argument. You used to raise the occasional point which I felt deserved a serious response that was lacking, but any sympathy I ever felt for you has gone. You don't have to be a scientist with expertise in climate change to realise that climate change could create some real problems for mankind, and that it would mankind clearly needs to minimise it's impact the Earth's environment. |
#22
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On 06/01/2020 09:12, Spike wrote:
"It" appears to have got bad enough that the climate catastrophe industry now has to be fronted by a schoolgirl variously described as Aspergic, OCD-suffering, and depressive, rather than in this case by scientists proving that their climate models have finally matched the reality. A few months ago, I completed a test for autism. A score of 16 was the average. 80% of autists scored 32 or more. I scored 36. This was judged to indicate the high probability of me being autistic. As I also have an IQ in the top 1%, this would have classified me as an Aspie under the old system (Asperger's is no longer a separate classification so I would be simply marked as autistic). I have also suffered from clinical depression for at least forty years. I therefore find your remarks insulting and disgusting but sadly unsurprising. I am also a scientist, having specialised for several years in climatology, with special regard to Arctic Ice, and and have previously demonstrated to you that climate models have been correctly forecasting the effects of CO2 on global temperatures for several decades. However, you continue to bury your head in the sand. I have no objection to you continuing to do that but just wish that you would desist from spreading your ill-informed ideas on a scientific newsgroup. http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...limate-change/ -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ “Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the truth.” [Ambassador Kosh] Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed. |
#23
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Tue, 7 Jan 2020 09:24:15 +0000
Spike wrote: I didn't attack her, but merely noted characteristics that in turn have been mentioned by her supporters, such as the following from the family's book: "After years of depression, eating disorders, and anxiety attacks, she finally receives a medical diagnosis: Asperger’s syndrome, high-functioning autism, and OCD. She also suffers from selective mutism—which explains why she sometimes can’t speak to anyone outside her closest family". The book is available on Amazon, if you don't already have a copy. That's an impressive bit of back-peddling, there, Burt! Can you tell us what your intentions were when you started the thread entitled: "OT: Gretta Tuneborg sits on floor of train." in uk.d-i-y ? Here is the body of your post: "According to the news this morning, the brat complained in a tweet that she had to sit on the floor of a crowded train, while returning form some climate junket or other. The German rail operator couldn't get her into First Class fast enough. I take it she realises that, come her carbon-neutral future, sitting on the floor of crowded trains is going to be the norm? -- Spike" Face it, Burt; you're a deeply unpleasant, bitter, old man. |
#24
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On 07/01/2020 16:02, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 06/01/2020 09:12, Spike wrote: "It" appears to have got bad enough that the climate catastrophe industry now has to be fronted by a schoolgirl variously described as Aspergic, OCD-suffering, and depressive, rather than in this case by scientists proving that their climate models have finally matched the reality. A few months ago, I completed a test for autism. A score of 16 was the average. 80% of autists scored 32 or more. I scored 36. This was judged to indicate the high probability of me being autistic. As I also have an IQ in the top 1%, this would have classified me as an Aspie under the old system (Asperger's is no longer a separate classification so I would be simply marked as autistic). I have also suffered from clinical depression for at least forty years. I therefore find your remarks insulting and disgusting but sadly unsurprising. Well, diagnosed autism runs in my close relatives, and my IQ is in the top 2%. I've never suffered from depression. So what now? I am also a scientist, having specialised for several years in climatology, with special regard to Arctic Ice, and and have previously demonstrated to you that climate models have been correctly forecasting the effects of CO2 on global temperatures for several decades. However, you continue to bury your head in the sand. I have no objection to you continuing to do that but just wish that you would desist from spreading your ill-informed ideas on a scientific newsgroup. You, nor anyone else, has proved my 'ideas' to be wrong - or even responded to them. http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...limate-change/ Have you thought of changing your interests to an area that attracts fewer doom-mongers? -- Spike |
#25
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On 07/01/2020 09:53, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Tuesday, January 7, 2020 at 9:24:17 AM UTC, Spike wrote: On 06/01/2020 10:46, Graham Easterling wrote: On Monday, January 6, 2020 at 9:12:26 AM UTC, Spike wrote: On 05/01/2020 12:02, Keith Harris wrote: All it's doing is just delaying action and as each year goes by it is just getting progressively worse. We can see what's happening around the world, how bad has it got to get? "It" appears to have got bad enough that the climate catastrophe industry now has to be fronted by a schoolgirl variously described as Aspergic, OCD-suffering, and depressive, rather than in this case by scientists proving that their climate models have finally matched the reality. I kept out of this until now as my views are well known on USW, and the thread was sadly deteriorating. The thread started to deteriorate when Paul Garvey posted a link to Spencer's page and said "There's always one". However, as someone involved with the subject you have raised (I have an autistic daughter), to attack someone with conviction because she is aspergic has crossed a line for me. People with aspergers are typically of above average intelligence and tend to focus on 1 subject, Chris Packham is a well known example. So they are worth listening to. I didn't attack her, but merely noted characteristics that in turn have been mentioned by her supporters, such as the following from the family's book: "After years of depression, eating disorders, and anxiety attacks, she finally receives a medical diagnosis: Asperger’s syndrome, high-functioning autism, and OCD. She also suffers from selective mutism—which explains why she sometimes can’t speak to anyone outside her closest family". The book is available on Amazon, if you don't already have a copy. But in any case convictions are quite irrelevant here. This is not a religion, it is a scientific subject. To dismiss her so rather displays a side of you I hadn't spotted before. I doubt she could offer any scientific-based comment or insight more significant than "We need that line to bend down" into the data or analysis contained in Spencer's graph, which was the point of my comment that was pushed to one side in the rush to condemn. Once upon a time the climate change industry used science to put forward their case. The wheels fell off that wagon when it became obvious that the models on which so much apparently depended did not predict anything that had occurred in the real world. Consequently, the perception-management of the issue moved to the political/emotive sphere, where it is now fronted as described. It appears that the believers cannot or will not discuss science that appears to be off-message, especially if that threatens to challenge their cherished beliefs - as has been so clearly demonstrated in this thread. It was you that introduced her name into the thread, with the sole purpose of mocking & rubbishing both her and the argument. So you claim. Note that all those characteristics mentioned - and more - have been used by her supporters and family to promote her image. and you might care to ask yourself why that might be. You used to raise the occasional point which I felt deserved a serious response that was lacking, but any sympathy I ever felt for you has gone. So? I don't seek sympathy, I seek discussion of the science. This has been noticeably absent from any replies that have been made. You don't have to be a scientist with expertise in climate change to realise that climate change could create some real problems for mankind, and that it would mankind clearly needs to minimise it's impact the Earth's environment. But we are heading, sooner or later, for an ice age. It has been suggested that pumping CO2 into the atmosphere could delay the onset of that by 50,000 years - surely a worthy goal - while noting that the current interglacial warm period is some ~2degC colder than the last one. That's the core message as far as I'm concerned. You need people like her to get the importance of the message across. So the message, and the messenger, are of far more importance than the science, of course. Just my opinion. And mine! -- Spike |
#26
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On 08/01/2020 10:36, Spike wrote:
So? I don't seek sympathy, I seek discussion of the science. But it's very clear that you do not 'seek discussion of the science' but have other motives. If you'd done any background research on this topic and had any real grasp of the science involved, you'd realise 3 things: 1. Estimating long-term trends of atmospheric temperature from satellite data is technically very challenging because of all the corrections that need to be made to account for issues like orbital decay. Satellite data is an interesting contribution to the overall picture, but far from definitive. 2. The UAH group have been widely criticised, especially with the introduction of v6 of their dataset, because of the excessive and - to many in the scientific community - unwarranted use of corrections that set out to minimise the warming trend. (Though despite their best efforts to underplay the warming, UAH still shows a current warming trend of 1.3C/century.) If you're going to use satellite data at all then use the more objective RSS dataset. 3. The tricks used by Christy (more so than Spencer I suspect) in concocting that spurious comparison of UAH and CIMP5 model trends have been repeatedly exposed - there's plenty of information out there on the web if you're genuinely interested in learning. |
#27
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On 08/01/2020 11:55, JGD wrote:
On 08/01/2020 10:36, Spike wrote: So? I don't seek sympathy, I seek discussion of the science. But it's very clear that you do not 'seek discussion of the science' but have other motives. If you'd done any background research on this topic and had any real grasp of the science involved, you'd realise 3 things: 1. Estimating long-term trends of atmospheric temperature from satellite data is technically very challenging because of all the corrections that need to be made to account for issues like orbital decay. Satellite data is an interesting contribution to the overall picture, but far from definitive. Estimating long-term trends of atmospheric temperature from near-urban temperature data sites is technically very challenging because of all the corrections that need to be made to account for issues like the heat island effect. Surface data is an interesting contribution to the overall picture, but far from definitive, there being rural stations around the globe that have recorded no temperature increase in the last 100 years. 2. The UAH group have been widely criticised, especially with the introduction of v6 of their dataset, because of the excessive and - to many in the scientific community - unwarranted use of corrections that set out to minimise the warming trend. (Though despite their best efforts to underplay the warming, UAH still shows a current warming trend of 1.3C/century.) If you're going to use satellite data at all then use the more objective RSS dataset. The IPCC have been widely criticised, especially with the selection of their datasets, because of the excessive and - to many in the scientific community - unwarranted use of corrections that set out to maximise the warming trend. (Through their best efforts to overplay the warming, the IPCC shows a current warming trend in the 'alarmist' mode.) If you're going to use data at all then use more objective datasets. 3. The tricks used by Christy (more so than Spencer I suspect) in concocting that spurious comparison of UAH and CIMP5 model trends have been repeatedly exposed - there's plenty of information out there on the web if you're genuinely interested in learning. Is that a 'Nature trick'? You may not have have noticed that Spencer's analysis *includes* the RSS data. I was struck by the exchange of emails between a university professor and some of the leading lights in the global warming industry. The prof had attempted to reproduce some of the IPCC's temperature predictions using their own published data, but couldn't do so, and wrote to the data holders querying this. My recollection is that he was essentially given the bum's rush, even though he was a climate scientist himself, and the matter was never resolved. -- Spike |
#28
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]() Estimating long-term trends of atmospheric temperature from near-urban temperature data sites is technically very challenging because of all the corrections that need to be made to account for issues like the heat island effect. Surface data is an interesting contribution to the overall picture, but far from definitive, there being rural stations around the globe that have recorded no temperature increase in the last 100 years. -- Spike Here we go again. I really don't know if i can be bothered dismissing this extraordinary paragraph - we've been round these arguments so many times before. The game is up, Spike. Julian Mayes |
#29
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Thursday, January 9, 2020 at 3:57:52 PM UTC, wrote:
Estimating long-term trends of atmospheric temperature from near-urban temperature data sites is technically very challenging because of all the corrections that need to be made to account for issues like the heat island effect. Surface data is an interesting contribution to the overall picture, but far from definitive, there being rural stations around the globe that have recorded no temperature increase in the last 100 years. -- Spike Here we go again. I really don't know if i can be bothered dismissing this extraordinary paragraph - we've been round these arguments so many times before. The game is up, Spike. Julian Mayes Yup. The irrelevant seldom know that they are. No-one cares what they say about climate science any more, except the irrelevant themselves. No-one cares about them, as these arguments are as old and tired as they are. Like you, Julian, I can't be arsed any more providing arguments to counter deniers; it's all been done - but it's funny to watch them posting. *)) |
#30
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
Early this evening the MO verified and accepted the 18.7C at Achfary, Highland, reached on 28 Dec - a new Dec UK record confirmed. https://twitter.com/metoffice
In case you are reading this, Spike, rest assured that this is not distorted by any urban heat-island effects! Julian Mayes PS The reason I could not be bothered to post earlier this afternoon was because I was compiling a spreadsheet of snowfall at an entirely rural site in west Wales - a 50-year decline being quite apparent. The warming rate there is quite comparable to more urban areas in southern Britain. Odd how the urban heat-island is exaggerated in the minds of much of the public - and the deniers. |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
deg F in Summer and deg C in Winter | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
"Break the Grip of the Rip" National Campaign Kicks-Off | Latest News | |||
Rip currents kill more people than tornados, hurricanes, and lightning. | Latest News | |||
NOAA Highlights The Dangers Of Deadly Rip Currents | Latest News | |||
Davis Weather station accessory pricing Rip off | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |