================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in October. That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low pressure run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !
Either way it backs up my forecast yesterday which went along with the ensembles
and kept the cold going, no sign of milder air getting further north than
southern England and then not really "in".

On a related topic I had a brief talk with a colleague at work today and we were
agreeing that the climate modellers should be concentrating much more on the
next 10 years as well as 100 years ahead as what we have seen recently is
circumstantial evidence that the climate can change rapidly and we *could* be in
danger of getting caught out with "our pants down".

Food for thought,

Will.
--
" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will,

You better calm down, this change in 'weather pattern' is possibly going to
your head. Not long back I recall you saying that you will not posting much
(4 or more posts today) due to certain circumstances.

Either way, I better check out your posted link and start contemplating a
'whole different winter's scene' to come.

Maybe.

Keep posting, Will

Tony

Newbury, Berkshire.


"Will" wrote in message
...


================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in October.
That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low pressure
run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !
Either way it backs up my forecast yesterday which went along with the
ensembles
and kept the cold going, no sign of milder air getting further north than
southern England and then not really "in".

On a related topic I had a brief talk with a colleague at work today and
we were
agreeing that the climate modellers should be concentrating much more on
the
next 10 years as well as 100 years ahead as what we have seen recently is
circumstantial evidence that the climate can change rapidly and we *could*
be in
danger of getting caught out with "our pants down".

Food for thought,

Will.
--
" Love begins when judgement ceases "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Will,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. When it comes from people like
yourself with 'inside' knowledge and many years of experience, it does
make you think that we are in a whole new ball game meteorologically
speaking.

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003


On Fri, 17 Oct 2003 22:06:34 +0100, "Will"
wrote:



================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in October. That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low pressure run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !
Either way it backs up my forecast yesterday which went along with the ensembles
and kept the cold going, no sign of milder air getting further north than
southern England and then not really "in".

On a related topic I had a brief talk with a colleague at work today and we were
agreeing that the climate modellers should be concentrating much more on the
next 10 years as well as 100 years ahead as what we have seen recently is
circumstantial evidence that the climate can change rapidly and we *could* be in
danger of getting caught out with "our pants down".

Food for thought,

Will.

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. When it comes from people like
yourself with 'inside' knowledge and many years of experience, it does
make you think that we are in a whole new ball game meteorologically
speaking.


But is the ball a nice,shiny round new one or is it some tatty old punctured
thing that the dog has chewed? :-)

Victor

"Will" wrote in message
...


================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in October.
That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low pressure
run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !
Either way it backs up my forecast yesterday which went along with the
ensembles
and kept the cold going, no sign of milder air getting further north than
southern England and then not really "in".

On a related topic I had a brief talk with a colleague at work today and
we were
agreeing that the climate modellers should be concentrating much more on
the
next 10 years as well as 100 years ahead as what we have seen recently is
circumstantial evidence that the climate can change rapidly and we *could*
be in
danger of getting caught out with "our pants down".

Food for thought,

Will.
--
" Love begins when judgement ceases "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----



Blimey Will. Youv'e sent a shiver down my spine. Do you really think such a
rapid change is possible? Flippi'n hell.

"Will" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in
October. That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low
pressure run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !

Hi, Will,

We live in interesting and exciting times. I will be pleasantly
surprised if the warming suddenly stops, but all the signs ( +NAO,
blocking October, general warming trend, etc, etc) are for another mild
winter.

ATB,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk


---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.528 / Virus Database: 324 - Release Date: 16/10/03

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Lawrence yes I do and what's more I think the answer lies in understanding the
ocean and therein lies the problem as data are very scant deep down. SSTs are a
product of many processes and the warming in Arctic regions in recent years to
my mind has been fast - too fast maybe for planetary stability and with
instability comes change, often quickly.

OK all very hand-wavey and unscientific but I am becoming very concerned myself
now that we may be underestimating the extent, effects and rapidity of climate
change globally and in the UK.

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

lawrence jenkins wrote in message ...

"Will" wrote in message
...


================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

I must say, I do not recall ever ever seeing a chart like that in October.
That
is simply phenomenal. It is almost as if the whole northern hemisphere
circulation has flipped. The Atlantic is blocked and the main low pressure
run
seems to be SE into Russia from the pole.
I would cautiously say "summat's up" !
Either way it backs up my forecast yesterday which went along with the
ensembles
and kept the cold going, no sign of milder air getting further north than
southern England and then not really "in".

On a related topic I had a brief talk with a colleague at work today and
we were
agreeing that the climate modellers should be concentrating much more on
the
next 10 years as well as 100 years ahead as what we have seen recently is
circumstantial evidence that the climate can change rapidly and we *could*
be in
danger of getting caught out with "our pants down".

Food for thought,

Will.
--
" Love begins when judgement ceases "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----



Blimey Will. Youv'e sent a shiver down my spine. Do you really think such a
rapid change is possible? Flippi'n hell.

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Lawrence yes I do and what's more I think the answer lies in
understanding the
ocean and therein lies the problem as data are very scant deep down.
SSTs are a
product of many processes and the warming in Arctic regions in recent
years to
my mind has been fast - too fast maybe for planetary stability and
with
instability comes change, often quickly.

OK all very hand-wavey and unscientific but I am becoming very
concerned myself
now that we may be underestimating the extent, effects and rapidity of
climate
change globally and in the UK.

Will.
--

I am sure that there is physical evidence of rapid climate change in the
past form such items as ice cores through the Greenland icecap which
would support your views on the rapidity of the possible change.

Alan

In message , Will
writes

================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

Lawrence yes I do and what's more I think the answer lies in understanding the
ocean and therein lies the problem as data are very scant deep down. SSTs are a
product of many processes and the warming in Arctic regions in recent years to
my mind has been fast - too fast maybe for planetary stability and with
instability comes change, often quickly.

OK all very hand-wavey and unscientific but I am becoming very concerned myself
now that we may be underestimating the extent, effects and rapidity of climate
change globally and in the UK.

Will.

Perhaps the thermostat which I have long believed existed is kicking in!

Just a thought,

James
--
James Brown

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Lawrence yes I do and what's more I think the answer lies in understanding
the
ocean and therein lies the problem as data are very scant deep down. SSTs
are a
product of many processes and the warming in Arctic regions in recent
years to
my mind has been fast - too fast maybe for planetary stability and with
instability comes change, often quickly.

OK all very hand-wavey and unscientific but I am becoming very concerned
myself
now that we may be underestimating the extent, effects and rapidity of
climate
change globally and in the UK.

Will.
--




Will. The evidence for such "flips" from ice core data etc.
have show generally (as far as I know) rapid movement to colder regimes. As
it seems without doubt? that this has happened in the past (ten year periods
of extreme change I've read in some examples) so it can happen again!
I know it's a tad embarrassing making such statements (a bit like David
Steel's "prepare for power") But do you feel that if this does or is
happening. Which way do you feel the climate may move?