Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO next?
Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO next?
Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2 raindrops & a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the radar, a small shower just to the west, and well broken cloud behind. Went out to Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full length of the beach in Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well, actually we walked the beach twice as she'd dropped her camera. My still mending leg found the 2nd trip in soft sand a bit of a struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next few hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people normally need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've said that before & received all sorts of excuses, along the lines of we don't work that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO next?
Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2 raindrops
& a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the radar, a small
shower just to the west, and well broken cloud behind. Went out to
Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full length of the beach in
Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well, actually we walked the beach twice
as she'd dropped her camera. My still mending leg found the 2nd trip
in soft sand a bit of a struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a
developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next few
hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people normally
need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back
into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've said that before
& received all sorts of excuses, along the lines of we don't work
that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

The high-res radar imagery is by far the best short-range forecasting
tool.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Graham wrote: Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable.

Yes there is - that's how model output statistics are enhanced by MeteoGroup and probably many other forecasting centres worldwide (by obs, sat and radar imagery). It won't keep pace with rapid changes though, or all showers, obviously.

Julian

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 10:07:18 PM UTC+1, Julian Mayes wrote:
Graham wrote: Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable.

Yes there is - that's how model output statistics are enhanced by MeteoGroup and probably many other forecasting centres worldwide (by obs, sat and radar imagery). It won't keep pace with rapid changes though, or all showers, obviously.

Julian

Thanks Julian,

Graham

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 10:07:18 PM UTC+1, Julian Mayes wrote:
Graham wrote: Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable.

Yes there is - that's how model output statistics are enhanced by MeteoGroup and probably many other forecasting centres worldwide (by obs, sat and radar imagery). It won't keep pace with rapid changes though, or all showers, obviously.

Julian

I notice that the Meteogroup (BBC) forecast is differing from the MetO one for Penzance today. The MetO showing heavy rain for Penzance around noon. The BBC one not, just a shower risk, having picked up on the fact that the front is likely to be very weak as it crosses west Cornwall.

Graham
Penzance

On 08/10/2020 07:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO next?
Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2 raindrops
& a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the radar, a small
shower just to the west, and well broken cloud behind. Went out to
Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full length of the beach in
Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well, actually we walked the beach twice
as she'd dropped her camera. My still mending leg found the 2nd trip
in soft sand a bit of a struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a
developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next few
hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people normally
need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding reality back
into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've said that before
& received all sorts of excuses, along the lines of we don't work
that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

The high-res radar imagery is by far the best short-range forecasting
tool.


Has anyone worked out how to toggle between 2m temp and 10m wind on
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-2t-wind
I've tried 2 different browsers on win7 and win10
Calling up the legend shows a colour bar from -48 to 52,
presumably the temp scale.
Under that, text saying 10m wind (m/s), main pane is a graphic that
probably shows wind "colours" and wind arrows but no relevant scale that
I can find

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

N_Cook wrote:

On 08/10/2020 07:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO
next? Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2
raindrops & a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the
radar, a small shower just to the west, and well broken cloud
behind. Went out to Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full
length of the beach in Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well,
actually we walked the beach twice as she'd dropped her camera.
My still mending leg found the 2nd trip in soft sand a bit of a
struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a
developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next
few hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people
normally need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding
reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've
said that before & received all sorts of excuses, along the lines
of we don't work that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

The high-res radar imagery is by far the best short-range
forecasting tool.


Has anyone worked out how to toggle between 2m temp and 10m wind on
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-2t-wind
I've tried 2 different browsers on win7 and win10
Calling up the legend shows a colour bar from -48 to 52,
presumably the temp scale.
Under that, text saying 10m wind (m/s), main pane is a graphic that
probably shows wind "colours" and wind arrows but no relevant scale
that I can find

Don't think you can do that. The colours on the chart are the 2m temp.
Black arrows show the 10m wind direction. I assume that the speed is
proportional to the arrow length but there is no actual scale. I
suspect there is supposed to be one but it's not there yet.

One useful feture that I found out by accident is that if you click on
any point on the map you get a 10-day meteogram for that point,
including 2m temp and 10m wind speed

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 09/10/2020 21:22, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 08/10/2020 07:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO
next? Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2
raindrops & a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the
radar, a small shower just to the west, and well broken cloud
behind. Went out to Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full
length of the beach in Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well,
actually we walked the beach twice as she'd dropped her camera.
My still mending leg found the 2nd trip in soft sand a bit of a
struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a
developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next
few hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people
normally need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding
reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've
said that before & received all sorts of excuses, along the lines
of we don't work that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

The high-res radar imagery is by far the best short-range
forecasting tool.


Has anyone worked out how to toggle between 2m temp and 10m wind on
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-2t-wind
I've tried 2 different browsers on win7 and win10
Calling up the legend shows a colour bar from -48 to 52,
presumably the temp scale.
Under that, text saying 10m wind (m/s), main pane is a graphic that
probably shows wind "colours" and wind arrows but no relevant scale
that I can find

Don't think you can do that. The colours on the chart are the 2m temp.
Black arrows show the 10m wind direction. I assume that the speed is
proportional to the arrow length but there is no actual scale. I
suspect there is supposed to be one but it's not there yet.

One useful feture that I found out by accident is that if you click on
any point on the map you get a 10-day meteogram for that point,
including 2m temp and 10m wind speed


At least its not just me. It took a while for me to realise there was a
button to call up the scale.
I'll have to stay with GFS, with colour scale for wind strength, to pick
off sampling to infer winstress and then surge in the Eng Channel.


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 8:47:35 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 09/10/2020 21:22, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 08/10/2020 07:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 9:06:07 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh
wrote:
Lots of new stuff to consume time here!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

ECMWF has taken the first step in throwing its door open to all
interested parties. Full marks to them for doing this. UKMO
next? Perhaps not.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Thanks for the link Norman.

I looked at the MetO forecast for Penzance this morning, 2
raindrops & a black cloud at 10:00 & 11:00, then I looked at the
radar, a small shower just to the west, and well broken cloud
behind. Went out to Sennen & took Leanne for a walk the full
length of the beach in Autumn sunshine, not a drop. Well,
actually we walked the beach twice as she'd dropped her camera.
My still mending leg found the 2nd trip in soft sand a bit of a
struggle.

I find the models these days are often superb at predicted a
developing synoptic situation, but weather forecasts for the next
few hours are often worse than useless, which is the bit people
normally need. Surely there must be an automated way of feeding
reality back into the forecast to make it more reasonable. (I've
said that before & received all sorts of excuses, along the lines
of we don't work that way.)

All went downhill this afternoon.

Graham
Penzance

The high-res radar imagery is by far the best short-range
forecasting tool.


Has anyone worked out how to toggle between 2m temp and 10m wind on
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-2t-wind
I've tried 2 different browsers on win7 and win10
Calling up the legend shows a colour bar from -48 to 52,
presumably the temp scale.
Under that, text saying 10m wind (m/s), main pane is a graphic that
probably shows wind "colours" and wind arrows but no relevant scale
that I can find

Don't think you can do that. The colours on the chart are the 2m temp.
Black arrows show the 10m wind direction. I assume that the speed is
proportional to the arrow length but there is no actual scale. I
suspect there is supposed to be one but it's not there yet.

One useful feture that I found out by accident is that if you click on
any point on the map you get a 10-day meteogram for that point,
including 2m temp and 10m wind speed


At least its not just me. It took a while for me to realise there was a
button to call up the scale.
I'll have to stay with GFS, with colour scale for wind strength, to pick
off sampling to infer winstress and then surge in the Eng Channel.


--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

There's a huge amount of information on coastal sea conditions at Channelcoast.org

If you take Milford (I just chose one near to you)
https://www.channelcoast.org/realtim...s&disp_option=

Play around with the buttons & you get sea height elevation in great detail, wave Spectra, even live data updated every 5 seconds. Graphs showing energy plotted against period, peak swell direction, period vs direction. It's just crammed with data.

Hours of entertainment for a sad person like me.

Going back to a post I made during benign weather in September, with little swell, little wind, & highish pressure, when the sea level was inexplicably well above forecast levels at Newlyn, during the recent unsettled spell the variance has been less, and is currently below predicted levels. I think Len provided the only possible answer, so after effect of the hurricanes.

Been rough lately, but with the pressure pattern we've got, little real energy in the waves, unlike August when the rough sea stripped sand from the beaches. Recent conditions have done a good job of bringing it back in many spots.

Graham
Penzance