Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Friday. Issued
0604z, 20/10/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif
Ridges lie to the east and NW of the UK, bringing light NNW'lies across most
of the UK. A ridge topples over the UK at T+144, bringing light winds for
all. By T+168 the main Atlantic high moves over western France, with a deep
low over Iceland bringing strong to gale force westerlies for most. The ten
day chart shows a similarly zonal picture.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Unavailable at the time of writing.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
The UK lies under light northerlies, with a ridge to the east and another
ridge to the south of Iceland. The latter topples SE'wards towards the uk at
T+120, with northerlies persisting for most. 850hPa temperatures range
from -5C over SW England to -3C over much of northern England. By T+144 a
trough covers the North Sea, with lows to the west of Norway, over Iceland
and over SW Greenland; this leads to moderate NW'lies for the UK. By T+168
NNW'lies and NW'lies cover the UK, with a low over the Low Countries and a
much deeper low NW of Iceland. The Atlantic High, meanwhile, sinks SE'wards
to the NNE of the Azores. On day 8 WNW'ly gales cover the UK, as the low
deepens to the east of Iceland. The Azores High builds and sinks southwards,
although it's still to the north of the Azores on day 9. By then, the low
fills over southern Norway, with strong to gale force NW'lies for the UK.
Day 10 sees a weak ridge crossing the UK, with lighter westerlies and
WNW'lies for all.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Low pressure lies to the east of, west of and over Greenland, with high
pressure in the mid-Atlantic bringing northerlies across the UK. The lows
merge to the north of the UK at T+144 and deepen explosively, resulting in
strong to gale force westerlies for most. The low moves over Scandinavia at
T+168, with NW'ly gales over the UK. Beyond that, NW'lies then NW'lies move
over the UK on days 8 and 9, follows by westerlies for all on day 10 with a
twin centred high over Biscay and to the SW of the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows northerlies and NE'lies over the UK, with high
pressure extending from SW of Iceland to the NW of the Azores and a deep low
over Portugal. 850hPa tempetatures range from -5C over SW Scotland to -1C
over southern England. By T+144 a high covers Scandinavia, while the
Atlantic high declines and moves northwards. The Portugese low splits in two
and deepens over Biscay, leading to strong ENE'lies over much of the UK. By
T+168 a ridge covers Scotland, with strong ENE'lies persisting elsewhere.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The charts show a high to the west of the UK, with northerlies or NE'lies
over the UK.

In summary, the runs today show yet another change looming. The run up to
the weekend looks like remianing cool, with northerlies or NE'lies over the
UK. During the weekend, though, low pressure looks like crossing Greenland
then deepening in the vicinity of Iceland by Monday, heralding a return to
more zonal westerlies or NW'lies for all.