It's been very interesting reading the various posts regarding past
weather patterns and the coming winter. However, many of you have
pointed out that a blocked autumn will lead to a mild, probable dry,
winter. I can't argue with this, although the element of 'Wills' new
era, may throw up some anomolies to the theories.
The problem I have, and would like to know what the consesus is, is
what late summer/autumn weather should we have, that would point to a
hard winter? After all, all those years of wet and windy zonal autumns
didn't lead to one, and now the stats are saying that a blocked autumn
won't lead to one either, and I'm beginning to lose hope, so what
would lead to a hard winter???

Keith (Southend)

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http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
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********************************
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would lead to a hard winter???
..... the current weather pattern in January would be useful! Personally I
think it is just random so we need a bit of luck to be here next time
round. Just like the summer we have just had. It's probably a bit less
likely than it used to be but ..... one winter?

Dave
P.S -Will it actually rain here tomorrow? Now that would be incredible.

To be honest Keith, I believe that you cannot compare the stats of any
Summer / Autumn to get a clue what the coming winter will be like.

I do not wish to belittle other more experienced posters to this newsgroup
in what I say, but there are many that believe that because we have seen an
October which has generally been very cool, There will be a cold Winter.

Already we can see that the mid Atlantic high is starting to drain away
southwards allowing milder air to come over the top and down across britain,
as it did many times last winter.

In short I think its a case of we have to wait and see what this winter will
bring, as I feel there are little if any connections between what a
particular type of Autumn will dictate as far as the following winter will
bring.

Regards. Len.




"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
It's been very interesting reading the various posts regarding past
weather patterns and the coming winter. However, many of you have
pointed out that a blocked autumn will lead to a mild, probable dry,
winter. I can't argue with this, although the element of 'Wills' new
era, may throw up some anomolies to the theories.
The problem I have, and would like to know what the consesus is, is
what late summer/autumn weather should we have, that would point to a
hard winter? After all, all those years of wet and windy zonal autumns
didn't lead to one, and now the stats are saying that a blocked autumn
won't lead to one either, and I'm beginning to lose hope, so what
would lead to a hard winter???

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003

"weather man" wrote
snip
Already we can see that the mid Atlantic high is starting to drain away
southwards allowing milder air to come over the top and down across
britain,
snip

The winter's over already, then? Bring on the Spring !! :-)

- Tom.

"weather man" wrote in message
...
To be honest Keith, I believe that you cannot compare the stats of any
Summer / Autumn to get a clue what the coming winter will be like.

I do not wish to belittle other more experienced posters to this
newsgroup
in what I say, but there are many that believe that because we have
seen an
October which has generally been very cool, There will be a cold
Winter.


The mean temperature up to the 18th October so far is 0.9°C above the
1971 to 2000 Rothamsted long term average (5 miles to the north of me).
It will be lower now but it has not been a cool month here.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
N51:44 W00:22
101m ASL

"Alan Gardiner" wrote in message
...

"weather man" wrote in message
...
To be honest Keith, I believe that you cannot compare the stats of
any
Summer / Autumn to get a clue what the coming winter will be like.

I do not wish to belittle other more experienced posters to this
newsgroup
in what I say, but there are many that believe that because we have
seen an
October which has generally been very cool, There will be a cold
Winter.


The mean temperature up to the 18th October so far is 0.9°C above the
1971 to 2000 Rothamsted long term average (5 miles to the north of
me).
It will be lower now but it has not been a cool month here.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans


... and here in Bracknell, the first half of the month was running at
least 1.0degC above average, with a short period +1.6degC (using eLTA
data); with the steady decline in both maxima and minima over past days,
we are approaching 'average' for the month overall.

Martin.
--
Martin Rowley: data via:
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/metindex.htm
Bracknell (Wooden Hill/Great Hollands), Berkshire.
NGR: SU 854 667
Lat: 51DEG23MIN30SEC(N); Long: 00DEG46MIN28SEC(W)
Height(amsl): 80 metres (262 feet)

"Alan Gardiner" wrote in message
...

"weather man" wrote in message
...
To be honest Keith, I believe that you cannot compare the stats of any
Summer / Autumn to get a clue what the coming winter will be like.

I do not wish to belittle other more experienced posters to this
newsgroup
in what I say, but there are many that believe that because we have
seen an
October which has generally been very cool, There will be a cold
Winter.


The mean temperature up to the 18th October so far is 0.9°C above the
1971 to 2000 Rothamsted long term average (5 miles to the north of me).
It will be lower now but it has not been a cool month here.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
N51:44 W00:22
101m ASL

October running 0.5°C above average here with maximum 1.4° above average
although minimum is 0.3° below average. Early morning rain today boosted
total to 9mm (15%) and sunshine, 107 hours, is already above average. So far
looks like another 'dry, sunny and (relatively) warm month'. In fact the
last 'cool' month (any month) was way back in November 2001.

All the best

--
George in Epping, West Essex (107m asl)
www.eppingweather.co.uk

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 22 Oct 2003 at 10:29:21, martin rowley wrote :


.. and here in Bracknell, the first half of the month was running at
least 1.0degC above average, with a short period +1.6degC (using eLTA
data); with the steady decline in both maxima and minima over past days,
we are approaching 'average' for the month overall.

Right on the average here, but with days 1C up & nights 1C down.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

In article , "Keith (Southend)" writes:

It's been very interesting reading the various posts regarding past
weather patterns and the coming winter.

.... so what would lead to a hard winter???


Nuclear war. Cataclysmic geophysical activity. Catastrophic extraterrestrial
event.

No weather pattern can lead to a definitive weather future as far ahead as a
whole season (for somewhere such as the UK) because small perturbations have
disproportionate effects. We know this by now.



Cheers,

keith


---
Iraq: 4 thousand million pounds, 50 lives, and counting...