Thanks for the link, Jon. I remember Martin telling me about his work on
the forecast. It was a very fair handling of my forecast and the results
were correct. Given the quality of the forecast I made, I couldn't have
expected anything better. . I think it was about that time that I had to
concede a very bad forecast I made even before the VT came into force. It
wasn't a successful time for me in those days. .

Anyway, that's quite a time ago, and much has happened since then. The
unreliable forecasting methods which couldn't be brushed up had to go, and
those that stayed had a number of trial-and-error programmes placed upon
them. The result was an improvement but still not good enough. And then,
almost by accident, a break-through came which put a new light on
everything. It's difficult to recall the actual happening, but it's like
searching for a logical lead and something entirely different crops up and
guides you down an entirely different path, - which in this case brought
the results I had been looking for.

At the moment I'm checking the Ist November avn forecast. Yesterday had
a great big depression over Denmark, but today the depression is on the move
and not as fearsome as yesterday. Also noticeable today was the eastwards
movement of HP into the area W of Ireland. And so the story will go on
until some kind of calmness happens at T + 3 days which I can rely upon.
Then we'll see how good the single-day forecast really is. If the first
day is good then all the others will be better.
Thanks again, Jon.

Cheers, Keith

Jon O'Rourke schrieb:

"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Jon.

Thanks for the link, Jon. I remember Martin telling me about his work on
the forecast. It was a very fair handling of my forecast and the results
were correct. Given the quality of the forecast I made, I couldn't have
expected anything better. . I think it was about that time that I had to
concede a very bad forecast I made even before the VT came into force. It
wasn't a successful time for me in those days. .

Anyway, that's quite a time ago, and much has happened since then. The
unreliable forecasting methods which couldn't be brushed up had to go, and
those that stayed had a number of trial-and-error programmes placed upon
them. The result was an improvement but still not good enough. And then,
almost by accident, a break-through came which put a new light on
everything. It's difficult to recall the actual happening, but it's like
searching for a logical lead and something entirely different crops up and
guides you down an entirely different path, - which in this case brought
the results I had been looking for.

At the moment I'm checking the Ist November avn forecast. Yesterday had
a great big depression over Denmark, but today the depression is on the move
and not as fearsome as yesterday. Also noticeable today was the eastwards
movement of HP into the area W of Ireland. And so the story will go on
until some kind of calmness happens at T + 3 days which I can rely upon.
Then we'll see how good the single-day forecast really is. If the first
day is good then all the others will be better.
Thanks again, Jon.

Cheers, Keith

Jon O'Rourke schrieb:

"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Jon.

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

Don't you mean a mini-tornado?

Cheers, Alastair.

As much as I don't quite agree with your forecast, I do think it's
premature of others to dissmiss your long range forecast as wrong.

I think many people would do well to wait untill Jan 2004 before
replying to this forecast and compare what it has predicted to what
actually happens.

I whole heartedly agree with your comments regarding computer
forecasts not being the only method of forecasting.

I think computer models are excellent for up to 36HRS and possibly
beyond in zonal conditions.

I think many people link climate / weather and chaos theory without
actually knowing what chaos theory is.

Chaos theory works on sub atomic particles and in quantum physics, but
when we have such predictable major parts of equations like, solar
energy, atlantic SST's, albedo, density, pressure, it isn't chaos

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Yes it is chaos since we cannot observe SSTs etc to the resolution required for
weather forecasting. Hence errors creep into the analysis which leads to chaos.
The atmosphere itself is also chaotic due to non-linear feedback processes.
Remember chaos can arise out of extremely *simple* equations which have
application in the macro world.

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nick wrote in message . ..
As much as I don't quite agree with your forecast, I do think it's
premature of others to dissmiss your long range forecast as wrong.

I think many people would do well to wait untill Jan 2004 before
replying to this forecast and compare what it has predicted to what
actually happens.

I whole heartedly agree with your comments regarding computer
forecasts not being the only method of forecasting.

I think computer models are excellent for up to 36HRS and possibly
beyond in zonal conditions.

I think many people link climate / weather and chaos theory without
actually knowing what chaos theory is.

Chaos theory works on sub atomic particles and in quantum physics, but
when we have such predictable major parts of equations like, solar
energy, atlantic SST's, albedo, density, pressure, it isn't chaos

"Will" wrote in message ...
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Yes it is chaos since we cannot observe SSTs etc to the resolution required for
weather forecasting. Hence errors creep into the analysis which leads to chaos.
The atmosphere itself is also chaotic due to non-linear feedback processes.
Remember chaos can arise out of extremely *simple* equations which have
application in the macro world.

Will.


/snip/

Hi Will and all,

I agree, Will, that it's the errors in determining what's happening
NOW which generate the errors in the forecasting, and not our
understanding (or lack of it) of the atmosphere. We understand fluuid
dynamics, thermodynamics, etc very well, and when we know, as near as
damn-it, the current situation, such as in a lab experiment, we can
forecast what's going to happen (e.g. heating a confined gas with a
light piston in the box, and the expanding gas pushing the piston out
a forecastable distance).

Then look at the global situation - try telling the computer program
what every single atom/molecule of the atmosphere is doing now
(impossible anyway due to the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle), and
then getting it to accurately forecast 5-10 days, and more ahead.

Even if people have all these other methods, such as for example,
pattern-matching, they must still have to match the current situation
EXACTLY with an historical one (bearing in mind that an analysis is
based on computer output as well as observations) before making a
forecast.

The atmosphere isn't unpredicatable per se, it's just chaotic, as Will
says, and even the smallest initial error will cause major variations
in forecasts.


cheers,

Paul K.