During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

On 24th December, a large depression near Iceland has a trough
stretching SE'wards to the North Sea. There isn't much HP about and
what there is is pushed further south in the Atlantic as the SW portion
of the Iceland-low develops southwards to lie to the SW of Ireland.
It's a time of near-average temperatures and mixed weather for most of
the country.

On 25th December, the depression to the SW and W of the country draws
in milder SW winds with many rain showers and much unsettled weather. A
small wave forms on the S section of the Atlantic depression and this
moves NE'wards towards SW England.

On 26th December, the Atlantic LP is close to W and NW Scotland and the
wave could be somewhere near the Channel. A very unsettled day,
especially when HP is far out in the Atlantic.

On 27th December, the Atlantic HP moves eastwards towards the SW of
the British Isles and the depression to the N of Scotland moves
eastwards towards SW Norway. There is a slow improvement coming into
the SW of the country and rain showers associated with a small
depression in the southern North Sea will move away into the continent.

On 28th December, SW winds still cover the country and an extension of
the Azores HP stretches into Biscay and the Channel. The small
depression yesterday over the North Sea has moved into southern
Scandinavia. Improving weather can be expected along the S coast of
England and weather may improve slowly over the rest of the country as
an induced ridge of HP between the Atlantic and Scandinavian
depressions develops.

On 29th December Britain has at last got a ridge of HP stretching from
S to North to join up with a North Pole HP. It's a time for dryer
weather with night frost early and late - probably some fog, too during
the early hours. The only thing which can spoil the picture is a small
depression hanging around the Holland area which is looking for some
place to go.

30th December, as HP develops from the Azores to Ireland and Wales and
SW Britain, the small depression moves towards the London area from
Holland. The depression begins to draw in continental air along the SE
coast and this could cause some enjoyment for the snow fans. I can't
see the necessary pool of cold air coming over France towards the
North Sea, but I can see some cold air moving from Moscow in the
direction of Poland - a bit too far away I'm afraid.

On 31st December, a depression moves into the area S of Iceland
bringing SW winds back into Scotland. For central areas of the country
a thin belt of HP tries to run from Northern Ireland eastwards to the
HP over the continent. The small depression near Brittany with a
trough down to Spain (our hope for some snow) draws in E winds along
the SE coast. There is a chance of some sleet showers, especially night
and morning, but I feel the temperature will not be sufficiently cold
enough to bring a big downpour of snow during the day, but the chance
cannot be completely ruled out.

On 1st January 2004, a complex depression with possibly two centres
covers Scotland and Ireland. There is a chance of strong W winds coming
into the SW of the country. A day of blustery showers and no more
thoughts of snow as the temperature rises and the snow-bringing
isotherems are pushed back into the continent.

So this year it's a mild one. Only a small window for snow ( on 31st)
and then it's gone during this period.

Cheers, Keith

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Anyone making forecasts on a day by day basis this far out needs to have
their head tested.

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Shaun Pudwell,
Warden Bay, Isle-of-Sheppey, Kent.

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

On 24th December, a large depression near Iceland has a trough
stretching SE'wards to the North Sea. There isn't much HP about and
what there is is pushed further south in the Atlantic as the SW portion
of the Iceland-low develops southwards to lie to the SW of Ireland.
It's a time of near-average temperatures and mixed weather for most of
the country.

On 25th December, the depression to the SW and W of the country draws
in milder SW winds with many rain showers and much unsettled weather. A
small wave forms on the S section of the Atlantic depression and this
moves NE'wards towards SW England.

On 26th December, the Atlantic LP is close to W and NW Scotland and the
wave could be somewhere near the Channel. A very unsettled day,
especially when HP is far out in the Atlantic.

On 27th December, the Atlantic HP moves eastwards towards the SW of
the British Isles and the depression to the N of Scotland moves
eastwards towards SW Norway. There is a slow improvement coming into
the SW of the country and rain showers associated with a small
depression in the southern North Sea will move away into the continent.

On 28th December, SW winds still cover the country and an extension of
the Azores HP stretches into Biscay and the Channel. The small
depression yesterday over the North Sea has moved into southern
Scandinavia. Improving weather can be expected along the S coast of
England and weather may improve slowly over the rest of the country as
an induced ridge of HP between the Atlantic and Scandinavian
depressions develops.

On 29th December Britain has at last got a ridge of HP stretching from
S to North to join up with a North Pole HP. It's a time for dryer
weather with night frost early and late - probably some fog, too during
the early hours. The only thing which can spoil the picture is a small
depression hanging around the Holland area which is looking for some
place to go.

30th December, as HP develops from the Azores to Ireland and Wales and
SW Britain, the small depression moves towards the London area from
Holland. The depression begins to draw in continental air along the SE
coast and this could cause some enjoyment for the snow fans. I can't
see the necessary pool of cold air coming over France towards the
North Sea, but I can see some cold air moving from Moscow in the
direction of Poland - a bit too far away I'm afraid.

On 31st December, a depression moves into the area S of Iceland
bringing SW winds back into Scotland. For central areas of the country
a thin belt of HP tries to run from Northern Ireland eastwards to the
HP over the continent. The small depression near Brittany with a
trough down to Spain (our hope for some snow) draws in E winds along
the SE coast. There is a chance of some sleet showers, especially night
and morning, but I feel the temperature will not be sufficiently cold
enough to bring a big downpour of snow during the day, but the chance
cannot be completely ruled out.

On 1st January 2004, a complex depression with possibly two centres
covers Scotland and Ireland. There is a chance of strong W winds coming
into the SW of the country. A day of blustery showers and no more
thoughts of snow as the temperature rises and the snow-bringing
isotherems are pushed back into the continent.

So this year it's a mild one. Only a small window for snow ( on 31st)
and then it's gone during this period.

Cheers, Keith

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message
...

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

What is?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Col it's all in the runes :-)
At least it's not on a web site with thousands of hits an hour :-)

LOL

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Col wrote in message ...

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...


Col. It's a wind-up.

but very nicely put together, and it might even be right.:-)

Jim Webster

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message Col, I'm sorry
to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

Cheers, Keith


It will be interesting to compare over a period how your forecasts do pan
out. To be fair, we ought to also compare a 'conventional' forecast as well,
so provide some sort of control. I suppose we could take the 'Countryfile'
or similar forecast, and just see if you end the year with a better record
than they do.

Jim Webster

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
snip

All these things the method can do. It requires time, and weather is endless.

Col, I'm sorry to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I understand exactly how you do it,
but I get the gist that it is completely different from 'current thinking'.
I assume that you disbelieve completely in chaos theory and that if only the
forecaster was skilled enough, they could forecast an individual day's
weather pretty much as far into the future as they want?

Also I believe there are times at which the atmosphere is on a 'knife edge'
as to what to do. Say for example during a winter cold spell it is thought
that in 5 days time mild westerlies will break through or then again, they
may not. Chances may be 50:50. What happens at this critical point may
well determine the weather for weeks ahead.
I can't see how your method can take account of this type of event, which
is essentially random.

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

I will save it and see what happens on a day to day basis.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk