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Old October 31st 03, 06:46 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (31/10/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0646z, 31/10/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
SW'lies cover the UK, with a weak ridge over the North Sea and a deep low
well to the SW of Iceland. The low deepens and moves slowly NE'wards at
T+144, with strong SW'lies for the UK. The SW'lies continue at T+168 as high
pressure covers much of central and southern Europe.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The T+120 chart is missing its isobars, but the T+144 chart shows high
pressure over the Baltic, with southerlies and SE'lies over the UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
High pressure lies to the SE of the UK, with lows to the south and SSW of
Iceland. Moderate to strong SW'lies are the result, with little change at
T+120. 850hPa temperatures by then range from +6C over NW Scotland to +8C
over SW England. The winds become southerlies and SSW'lies at T+144, as the
European high merges with another over Russia. The new high declines and
retrogresses at T+168, stretching from southern Sweden eastwards past the
Urals. Southerlies continue to cover the UK, with a deep low in the
mid-Atlantic. The low fills and moves NE'wards on day 8, while the high
continues to retrogress, moving over Scandinavia. The UK still lies under
southerlies, as is the case on day 9 as the Scandinavian High builds and a
secondary low forms to the west of Scotland. By day 10 the high covers
Finland, while another ridge builds over the Celtic Sea, bringing SW'lies to
Northern Ireland as well as Scotland and light northerlies for much of
England and Wales.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows strong SW'lies across the UK, due to high pressure
over central Europe and lows to the north and west. 850hPa temperatures vary
from +5C over northern Scotland to +10C over eastern parts of England, as
well as Cornwall. Even milder air is pulled across the UK at T+144, as the
winds become southerlies and SSW'lies for England and Wales, with SW'lies
elsewhere. 1000-500hPa thicknesses rise above 560dam over SE England.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A weak ridge covers much of the UK, with SW'lies and westerlies as the
result. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over SE England to +6C over
Northern Ireland. Mild SW'lies push across the UK at T+144, with high
pressure over southern Germany. By T+168 exceptionally mild air moves
northwards over the UK, driven on by strong southerlies and SSW'lies. 850hPa
temperatures are between +10C and +13C over the whole of the UK, with
thicknesses of 562dam over SE England.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows a SW'ly flow over the UK, with a high over central Europe
and a low to the WNW or NW.

In summary, the runs today show a mild or very mild period of weather
approaching, with strong SW'lies and the best of any dry weather reserved
for the SE of England. As next weekend approaches, the GFS develops a high
over Scandinavia, while the MetO run shows a Scandinavian High as early as
Thursday. The Canadian run shows high pressure ridging to the north of the
UK over next weekend, so as ever more runs are needed.



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