Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0646z, 31/10/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif SW'lies cover the UK, with a weak ridge over the North Sea and a deep low well to the SW of Iceland. The low deepens and moves slowly NE'wards at T+144, with strong SW'lies for the UK. The SW'lies continue at T+168 as high pressure covers much of central and southern Europe. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html The T+120 chart is missing its isobars, but the T+144 chart shows high pressure over the Baltic, with southerlies and SE'lies over the UK. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif High pressure lies to the SE of the UK, with lows to the south and SSW of Iceland. Moderate to strong SW'lies are the result, with little change at T+120. 850hPa temperatures by then range from +6C over NW Scotland to +8C over SW England. The winds become southerlies and SSW'lies at T+144, as the European high merges with another over Russia. The new high declines and retrogresses at T+168, stretching from southern Sweden eastwards past the Urals. Southerlies continue to cover the UK, with a deep low in the mid-Atlantic. The low fills and moves NE'wards on day 8, while the high continues to retrogress, moving over Scandinavia. The UK still lies under southerlies, as is the case on day 9 as the Scandinavian High builds and a secondary low forms to the west of Scotland. By day 10 the high covers Finland, while another ridge builds over the Celtic Sea, bringing SW'lies to Northern Ireland as well as Scotland and light northerlies for much of England and Wales. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif The Canadian run shows strong SW'lies across the UK, due to high pressure over central Europe and lows to the north and west. 850hPa temperatures vary from +5C over northern Scotland to +10C over eastern parts of England, as well as Cornwall. Even milder air is pulled across the UK at T+144, as the winds become southerlies and SSW'lies for England and Wales, with SW'lies elsewhere. 1000-500hPa thicknesses rise above 560dam over SE England. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html A weak ridge covers much of the UK, with SW'lies and westerlies as the result. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C over SE England to +6C over Northern Ireland. Mild SW'lies push across the UK at T+144, with high pressure over southern Germany. By T+168 exceptionally mild air moves northwards over the UK, driven on by strong southerlies and SSW'lies. 850hPa temperatures are between +10C and +13C over the whole of the UK, with thicknesses of 562dam over SE England. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The chart shows a SW'ly flow over the UK, with a high over central Europe and a low to the WNW or NW. In summary, the runs today show a mild or very mild period of weather approaching, with strong SW'lies and the best of any dry weather reserved for the SE of England. As next weekend approaches, the GFS develops a high over Scandinavia, while the MetO run shows a Scandinavian High as early as Thursday. The Canadian run shows high pressure ridging to the north of the UK over next weekend, so as ever more runs are needed. |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |