Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during Aug/Sept, then using
best-fit years, gives us the following for November 2003:

Mean sea-level pressure pattern over the British Isles:
anticyclonic/southerly

Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is:
anticyclonic southeasterly

CET +0.9 degC
E&W RR 77%
E&W sss 98%

Verification for October's Not the Long Range Forecast
Sea-level pressure pattern:
Actual: northwesterly
Forecast: southwesterly

Anomaly pattern:
Actual: NNE-ly
Forecast: hint of NW-ly or N-ly

CET:
Forecast -0.3 degC
Actual -0.9 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 98%
Actual 80%

Sunshine
Forecast 103%
Actual 130%

Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .
snip
Verification for October's Not the Long Range Forecast
snip
Forecast -0.3 degC
Actual -0.9 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 98%
Actual 80%


Countryfile just said 69% for rainfall and -1.1C for CET.

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message ...

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .
snip
Verification for October's Not the Long Range Forecast
snip
Forecast -0.3 degC
Actual -0.9 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 98%
Actual 80%


Countryfile just said 69% for rainfall and -1.1C for CET.

Victor

They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C, whereas the 1971-2000 period was 10.4°C

Regards,

Rob
Chester, UK
http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...
They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C, whereas
the 1971-2000 period was 10.4°C


Ok, thanks for that. I should have thought of that.
When's the 1961-1990 average going to be consigned to history? It can be
slightly confusing.

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message ...

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...
They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C, whereas
the 1971-2000 period was 10.4°C


Ok, thanks for that. I should have thought of that.
When's the 1961-1990 average going to be consigned to history? It can be
slightly confusing.

Victor

Yes it is confusing. Maybe Philip can clear this up.

Regards,

Rob
Chester, UK
http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...

They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C, whereas the
1971-2000 period was 10.4°C

So Octobers are getting *colder* then?

I wonder if that's the only month that has shown a decrease.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"Col" wrote in message ...

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...

They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C, whereas the
1971-2000 period was 10.4°C

So Octobers are getting *colder* then?

I wonder if that's the only month that has shown a decrease.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


June is the only other month that is colder.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4.2 4.2 6.3 8.1 11.3 14.1 16.5 16.2 13.7 10.4 6.9 5.1
3.8 3.8 5.7 7.9 11.2 14.2 16.1 15.8 13.6 10.6 6.6 4.7


Regards,

Rob
Chester, UK
http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...
"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Rob Bale" wrote in message
...
They are using the 1961-1990 period which had a mean of 10.6°C,
whereas
the 1971-2000 period was 10.4°C


Ok, thanks for that. I should have thought of that.
When's the 1961-1990 average going to be consigned to history? It can be
slightly confusing.

Yes it is confusing. Maybe Philip can clear this up.

Wish I could ... perhaps someone from the UKMO gecananswer. I've been
using 1971-2000 averages since early in 2001. I don't see the problem. It
may
be that the WMO hasn't got round to changing yet, but I really don't see
why that should affect information for domestic consumption.

Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .
snip
It may be that the WMO hasn't got round to changing yet, but I really
don't see
why that should affect information for domestic consumption.


Ages ago (last year I think), I e-mailed the Met Office as to why they were
still using the 1961-1990 figures.
They said it was due to the WMO still using the info.

Victor