uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old November 11th 03, 12:48 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?

Latest AVN forecast is looking very wild for these parts on Thursday night
/ Friday morning;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.gif
The positioning of this low seems to be changing markedly with every run
however. I'm not sure I want it to remain similar either, that looks
extremely severe for whoever gets it..?!


--
-----------------------------
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
(20 miles ESE of Glasgow)
55°47'14" -3°55'15" 115m/358ftamsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk
----------------------------



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Old November 11th 03, 06:43 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Col Col is offline
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Default Wild on Thursday night?


"Alex Stephens Jnr" wrote in message
...
Latest AVN forecast is looking very wild for these parts on Thursday night
/ Friday morning;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.gif
The positioning of this low seems to be changing markedly with every run
however. I'm not sure I want it to remain similar either, that looks
extremely severe for whoever gets it..?!


And if it tracks over the Forth/Clyde valley then my area will get it.

Last night's BBC forecast was stressing the uncertainty of the low's
positioning showing two possible tracks on the forecast charts.
Though I don't know whether these were the two most likely outcomes
or the two extremes.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


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Old November 11th 03, 10:08 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?

having had 5 days of ESE and drizzly hill fog I am, and i know its wrong of
me, looking forward to this low like a child looks forward to a tenner
falling out of a birthday card

Is there a term for the guilt one feels when hoping that bad weather is
worse than anticipated?

brian
aberfeldy

474 mm up to and inc. October



"Alex Stephens Jnr" wrote in
message ...
Latest AVN forecast is looking very wild for these parts on Thursday night
/ Friday morning;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.gif
The positioning of this low seems to be changing markedly with every run
however. I'm not sure I want it to remain similar either, that looks
extremely severe for whoever gets it..?!


--
-----------------------------
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
(20 miles ESE of Glasgow)
55°47'14" -3°55'15" 115m/358ftamsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk
----------------------------




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Old November 11th 03, 10:40 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?


"Alex Stephens Jnr" schreef in
bericht ...
Latest AVN forecast is looking very wild for these parts on Thursday night
/ Friday morning;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.gif
The positioning of this low seems to be changing markedly with every run
however. I'm not sure I want it to remain similar either, that looks
extremely severe for whoever gets it..?!


snip
Alex, think the worst (best :-)) ) moments will be over when we arrive at
Edinburgh Airport next Saturdaymorning? Real autumn in Edinburgh though?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.gif


Wijke





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Old November 11th 03, 10:43 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Alex Stephens Jnr" wrote in

message
...
Latest AVN forecast is looking very wild for these parts on Thursday

night
/ Friday morning;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn783.gif
The positioning of this low seems to be changing markedly with every

run
however. I'm not sure I want it to remain similar either, that looks
extremely severe for whoever gets it..?!


And if it tracks over the Forth/Clyde valley then my area will get it.

Last night's BBC forecast was stressing the uncertainty of the low's
positioning showing two possible tracks on the forecast charts.
Though I don't know whether these were the two most likely outcomes
or the two extremes.


I saw that forecast - it was particularly interesting because it is normally
considered that people cannot cope with probabilities in weather forecasts.
Nice to see.

- Michael




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Old November 11th 03, 05:09 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?


I saw that forecast - it was particularly interesting because it is normally
considered that people cannot cope with probabilities in weather forecasts.
Nice to see.

- Michael


CYA I expect.....

Suggests its going to be a brute. Glad I am not on the hill on Friday.

Richard Webb
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Old November 12th 03, 05:45 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?

On Tue, 11 Nov 2003 10:43:14 -0000, "MichaelJP"
wrote:



I saw that forecast - it was particularly interesting because it is normally
considered that people cannot cope with probabilities in weather forecasts.
Nice to see.


So what exactly does a 70% risk of disruption actually mean?


--
Paul

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Old November 12th 03, 06:39 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Wild on Thursday night?


"Paul C" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 11 Nov 2003 10:43:14 -0000, "MichaelJP"
wrote:



I saw that forecast - it was particularly interesting because it is

normally
considered that people cannot cope with probabilities in weather

forecasts.
Nice to see.


So what exactly does a 70% risk of disruption actually mean?


Have a look at:-

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...o/ukwxwngs.htm

Martin.




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