Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0654z, 15/11/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A secondary low covers northern Scotland, with strong WSW'lies elsewhere.
The WSW'lies ease at T+144 as another low fills to the NW of Scotland. By
T+168 Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under westerlies, NW'lies and
northerlies, due to a low west of southern Norway. Meanwhile, southern and
central England as well as Wales lie under easterlies, due to a low over
Biscay.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows SW'lies for most, with a trough over Scotland. A
weak ridge brings westerlies to Northern Ireland, but by T+144 the whole of
the UK lies under SW'lies, with low pressure to the west of Scotland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
The UK lies under westerlies, with a deep low west of Norway. There's little
change at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from -1C over Scotland and
Northern Ireland to +6C over Cornwall. The westerlies persist at T+144, but
by T+168 northerlies and NE'lies move over Northern Ireland and Scotland, as
the low moves over Scandinavia. England and Wales lie under light and
variable winds in the main, with low pressure to the SW. A ridge lies to the
NW of the UK on day 8, resulting in northerlies and easterlies. Easterlies
cover much of the UK on day 9, as the ridge becomes a high to the NE of the
UK. The high builds over southern Scandinavia on day 10, bringing SE'lies
across the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run also shows westerlies over the UK, due to a deep low to the
NW. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over Scotland and Northern Ireland to
+3C across southern England. The westerlies continue at T+144, as the low
moves eastwards and deepens.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
As with most of the other runs, westerlies cover the UK, this time due to a
low over the far north of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures vary from +2C over
NW Scotland to +10C over East Anglia and SE England. The winds become
SW'lies and westerlies at T+144, as a new low sinks SE'wards to the west of
Scotland. The low deepens in situ at T+168, while a secondary low moves over
the Celtic Sea, with southerlies for most. On day 8, the main low deepens
over the Western Isles, which, combined with another low to the south of
Ireland, bringing WSW'lies across the UK.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows westerlies for the UK.

In summary, the runs today continue to show a mobile setup, with westerlies
or WSW'lies likely for the middle of the week. Beyond that, the models
diverge, with the ECM and GFS showing the UK between two lows by Friday,
whereas the Canadian run shows a shortlived northerly spell. As ever, more
runs are needed.