Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0705z, 25/11/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Southerlies cover the UK, with complex low pressure to the north and west.
The winds become westerlies for all at T+144 as the lows merge over the
Northern Isles. The low sinks slowly southwards and fills at T+168, still
with westerlies for most.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows complex low pressure to the NW, with SW'lies and
SSW'lies over the UK. The winds become lighter at T+144 as the lows fill,
although the winds are still from the WSW, SW or SSW.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
The UK lies under southerlies, with a trough over Ireland. Low pressure
moves eastwards over Scotland at T+120, bringing westerlies further south.
850hPa temperatures range from +1C over Northern Ireland to +6C over eastern
and NE England. The low then fills and sinks SE'wards, so that by T+144 it
lies over the southern North Sea. A ridge from the Azores High is moving
eastwards, leaving northerlies over the UK. The ridge topples to the west of
Ireland at T+168, as deep lows move eastwards to the north of Iceland. The
North Sea low sinks southwards and fills over France, leading to easterlies
and northerlies for much of the UK. Scotland lies under a col, as does much
of the UK on day 8. The Azores High moves NE'wards on day 9, with
northerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, the remnants of
the North Sea low merge with another low, forming a deeper low over southern
France. Easterlies cover much of England as a result. By day 10 the
ex-Azores High builds to the north of Scotland, while the French low moves
NW'wards. Easterlies and SE'lies cover the UK as a result.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows a low over the Irish Sea, with cyclonic winds for the
UK. 850hPa temperatures range from freezing over NW Scotland to +6C over SE
England. The low fills over northern Scotland at T+144, with westerlies for
most of the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
SW'lies cover the UK, due to two lows to the south and NE of Iceland. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -2C over northern Scotland to +6C over SW England.
NW'lies affect most of the UK at T+144, as one of the Icelandic lows moves
SE'wards. The winds become northerlies for most at T+168, with low pressure
to the NE of Scotland. The low fills over the North Sea on day 8, while a
ridge toppling over Ireland brings northerlies to much of the UK.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows a trough to the west, with SW'lies, SSW'lies or southerlies
over the UK.

In summary, the runs today show low pressure dominating the UK during the
weekend, with unsettled conditions for all. Some mild air will be pushed
across southernmost areas in the warm sector, followed by a reasonable
chance of a brief northerly spell at the beginning of next week (as shown by
the JMA, GEM and GFS runs).