In article , Tom
Presutti writes
I just want to say a big thanks to Paul for issuing his annual
forecast, it is much appreciated by myself and many others. If it is
as mild as you suggest, then I at least hope it's dry :-)

Although your forecast dosn't suggest much cold and snow, I still(and
it's hard to say this!) wish you good luck with your forecast, as that
would then be 5 good winter forecasts on the bounce - a fantastic
record that noone could argue with.
Tom: you are too generous. I note the forecast easterlies - mild again
though. I hate forecasting mild winters, but I suppose I just have to
remain objective.
Cheers
Paul
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
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In article , "Alastair McDonald" k writes:

I can't say I like the probalistic approach. How can it be verified?

By comparing prediction and event over a sufficiently long period
of time.

Cheers,

keith



---
Iraq: 5 thousand million pounds, 50 lives, and counting...

"Will" wrote in message
...

Alastair, you can only verify probility forecasts over a sample of them. ie
if
over the last 10 years when Paul had forecast 30% mild say then it should
have
been mild on 3/10 of those years. That would give a high reliability. You
cannot
verify a SINGLE forecast.

Oh I see. I hadn't thought of that :-(

Cheers, Alastair.