TYPICAL!
The 12z runs are now displayed and the 528 line is North of UK and winds are
now southerlies!

Its amazing what a difference 6 hours can make to the models.



Thursday's 00z model is now reverting back to cold Northerlies for Saturday 13!
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2163.html

Hi Will!
Your obviously not studying the forecasts, just stating your feelings. How
unscientific. Pah!

Cheers Keith
P.S. It's good I saw your posting, otherwise your comments would have gone
unanswered.

Will schrieb:

Brendan DJ Murphy wrote in message ...
Hold on..... there is still some hope...
528 line lies South of UK with cold northerlies on Sat 13 December:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2643.html


Brendan

TYPICAL!
The 12z runs are now displayed and the 528 line is North of UK and winds are
now southerlies!

Its amazing what a difference 6 hours can make to the models.

Brendan




Exactly. And some people think they can forecast the weather to two week
precision 3 months ahead, or give forecasts for Christmas week in October. Pah !
Which planet are they on ?

Will.
--

" Put a rock in your bathroom and feel the difference "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Fri, 05 Dec 2003 10:11:46 +0100, Keith Darlington wrote in

Post re-ordered

Will schrieb:
Brendan DJ Murphy wrote in message ...
TYPICAL!
The 12z runs are now displayed and the 528 line is North of UK and winds are
now southerlies!

Its amazing what a difference 6 hours can make to the models.

Brendan

Exactly. And some people think they can forecast the weather to two week
precision 3 months ahead, or give forecasts for Christmas week in October. Pah !
Which planet are they on ?

Hi Will!
Your obviously not studying the forecasts, just stating your feelings. How
unscientific. Pah!

Cheers Keith
P.S. It's good I saw your posting, otherwise your comments would have gone
unanswered.

Keith - I'm sure Will is stating more than just his feelings and is basing
his views on the dreadful record of these so called detailed "long range
forecasts".

Here is an example for today the 5th December:

quote
On 5th December, a large LP area covers the Norwegian Sea, the North
Sea and Scandinavia. A small depression in the North Sea moves away
and leaves a NW airstream over the British Isles. In the SW of the
country, a flat ridge approaches S Ireland and moves E'ward into the W
of Britain. As the showers slowly die out in the N, NE and E of the
country, weather slowly improves from the SW and spreads into the W half
of the country.
endquote

That was posted on the 22nd November by your good self. I see no mention
of the high covering us and I note all places are currently dry.

For tomorrow you stated:
"An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland" when all the signs are of
just the opposite - high centres to the NW and N of us.

I commented a week or so ago on the inaccuracies in your forecasts, but you
seem to have _overlooked_ my post.


--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 05/12/2003 09:44:18 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

Mike!
If I missed your comments a week or two ago, then I'm sorry. It is not like me to
miss a reply. However I did mention at the bottom of one of my detailed forecasts that
my server was not delivering all the postings to this NG. So it appears your posting
was one of the many I missed. Sorry about that.

Mike, if I understand you correctly you think the detailed forecasts have a dreadful
record and you quote the detailed forecast for 5th Decamber to support your viewpoint.

Let's check it shall we. I have a reputaable analysis for 00Z, 5th December 2003 in
front of me. There is a large LP covering Scandinavia, and the Norwegian Sea. (Not
the North Sea as you rightly infer.). The small depression mentioned by me is not
over the North Sea - there is a small depression between Iceland and Norway which
could fit the bill. It's a quick mover in any case, but that is reserved for
tomorrow's forecast. Perhaps one could argue that the small depression lies in the
trough over S Norway and S Sweden. The fact remains that NW winds are blowing over the
North Sea and not over the British Isles.

To the SW of Britain there was a HP ridge - and it didn't approach S Ireland, it
approached NW Ireland. The HP ridge didn't move E'ward, it stayed where it was, more
or less.

From a pressure-reading point of view and not a frontal point of view, there was a
general improvement in the weather.

So there we have it, Mike. The forecast wasn't as wrong as much as you imply. The
question is HOW MUCH LEEWAY do you give to a forecast that is done by hand and is
posted 14 days in advance and constructed 20 or more days before the date. Should my
forecast be as good as the charts you usually work with?

If you find the discrepancies on the 5th December so grave, what is your opinion of
the NWP after 5 days. Are they held in the same relationship?

Mike, I have done almost two months of forecasts. I have only found one day on which I
would say - completely wrong; not a single likeness. And I'd have a look to see why
that single forecast went wrong, and I wouldn't settle until I had found out the
reason. The date was 4th December. I didn't get the HP building up from the SW.
I saw the single depression near Spain having a connection with the Iceland LP. This
wasn't the case. I saw this coming a few days before, and I felt that if criticism
was to come, that would be the sticking point. You never noticed it, Mike, And that
tells me really how much you are studying the detailed forecasts.

If you do get down to studying the forecasts, you will see that the timing of the
change-over from one situation to the next is worth while the study.

Cheers, Keith


Mike Tullett schrieb:

On Fri, 05 Dec 2003 10:11:46 +0100, Keith Darlington wrote in

Post re-ordered

Will schrieb:
Brendan DJ Murphy wrote in message ...
TYPICAL!
The 12z runs are now displayed and the 528 line is North of UK and winds are
now southerlies!

Its amazing what a difference 6 hours can make to the models.

Brendan

Exactly. And some people think they can forecast the weather to two week
precision 3 months ahead, or give forecasts for Christmas week in October. Pah !
Which planet are they on ?

Hi Will!
Your obviously not studying the forecasts, just stating your feelings. How
unscientific. Pah!

Cheers Keith
P.S. It's good I saw your posting, otherwise your comments would have gone
unanswered.

Keith - I'm sure Will is stating more than just his feelings and is basing
his views on the dreadful record of these so called detailed "long range
forecasts".

Here is an example for today the 5th December:

quote
On 5th December, a large LP area covers the Norwegian Sea, the North
Sea and Scandinavia. A small depression in the North Sea moves away
and leaves a NW airstream over the British Isles. In the SW of the
country, a flat ridge approaches S Ireland and moves E'ward into the W
of Britain. As the showers slowly die out in the N, NE and E of the
country, weather slowly improves from the SW and spreads into the W half
of the country.
endquote

That was posted on the 22nd November by your good self. I see no mention
of the high covering us and I note all places are currently dry.

For tomorrow you stated:
"An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland" when all the signs are of
just the opposite - high centres to the NW and N of us.

I commented a week or so ago on the inaccuracies in your forecasts, but you
seem to have _overlooked_ my post.

--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 05/12/2003 09:44:18 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

On Fri, 05 Dec 2003 19:42:54 +0100, Keith Darlington wrote in


Mike, if I understand you correctly you think the detailed forecasts have a dreadful
record and you quote the detailed forecast for 5th Decamber to support your viewpoint.

Keith - I was referring to *all* those who attempt detailed forecasts at
long time ranges and there I include the likes of Bill Giles. It wasn't
aimed solely at yours.

big snip


If you find the discrepancies on the 5th December so grave, what is your opinion of
the NWP after 5 days. Are they held in the same relationship?

NWP can be quite mixed at that range (as they can be even at 24 hours).
The current build of pressure was very well signalled many days ago by
them, mind you.

Mike, I have done almost two months of forecasts. I have only found one day on which I
would say - completely wrong; not a single likeness. And I'd have a look to see why
that single forecast went wrong, and I wouldn't settle until I had found out the
reason. The date was 4th December. I didn't get the HP building up from the SW.
I saw the single depression near Spain having a connection with the Iceland LP. This
wasn't the case. I saw this coming a few days before, and I felt that if criticism
was to come, that would be the sticking point. You never noticed it, Mike, And that
tells me really how much you are studying the detailed forecasts.

I admit I don't study every day in your forecast, but I highlighted today's
as your post to Will reminded me to check what it was. I still would say
there is little relationship between your forecast for today and what has
transpired. Yes now you remind me, looking back to the 4th there was a
similar discrepancy.


For tomorrow - Saturday - you wrote:

"On 6th December, the HP of yesterday lies from S to N along the S and E
side of Britain. An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland
Winds will be light in the E and SE of the country but will turn S and
SW later. The fine weather along the E side of the country will move off
E'wards as rain and showers take over from the W."

I see a High of 1038 mb over the north of Scotland with winds from the E
and NE over central and southern areas. You mention a low extending into W
Scotland. I see three lows on the latest UKMO charts and the nearest is
over 1000 miles away. You have fine weather in the E moving off eastwards
when tomorow's winds are bringing cloud and then a clearance *from* the
east. There may well be rain in the far SW but that will have moved from
the east as the associated fronts move west and another moves north west
from Biscay.


If you do get down to studying the forecasts, you will see that the timing of the
change-over from one situation to the next is worth while the study.

For Sunday you said:
"On 7th December, a depression lies to the N of the country. A W or
WSW airstream brings rain and showers over the N half of the
country. Slightly better weather can be found in the S."

I see a high of 1034mb over the S North Sea with the nearest (very weak)
Atlantic lows to the west of Iberia and north of the Azores. There just
isn't a low to the north of Scotland unless, by that, you include the
Barents Sea.

Sorry Keith, but I am not convinced.

--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 05/12/2003 19:08:27 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
Mike - I would like to come back and reply to some of the points you have
made.

SNIP
Bill Giles uses a sequential method of forecasting - ie. he needs to know
the latest
analysis in order to project into the future. I don't. I go directly to
the date I
require. Furthermore, Bill Giles explains much about the likely atmospheric
weather. I
don't. My interest lies in forecasting the expected pressure situation.

Keith, no doubt you have probably explained your methodology more than once on
this forum if not others - unfortunately I do not recall them. I hope you can
take the time to answer these queries.

Is your methodology based on some form of cyclical pattern or what? When you say
you go directly to a date then is it that you have visualised some sort of
pressure pattern based on a prior result? Or is it that you determine the
pressure pattern is, forgive me, "calendar" driven? I don't mean literally but
some sort of referral to specific time of season / year, etc.?

Given the difficulty I have understanding how you derive your forecasts you'll
excuse me, I hope, if I question how conditions that fail to arise on any
particular day in your forecasts do not interfere or alter the weather you had
expected to occur in following days?

Finally, and I do mean this constructively, how do you yourself measure your own
success and have you published any specific results based on this criteria? Also
to what "scale" to you find your forecasts reliable, i.e. are your forecasts
generally restricted to an area the size of the British Isles or can you be even
more specific?


J.

"JCW" wrote in message
...
"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
snip
Keith, no doubt you have probably explained your methodology more than
once on
this forum if not others - unfortunately I do not recall them.
snip

Hi Joe,
The following may be of interest from around this time last year...
http://tinyurl.com/y0mx

Cheers,
Jon.

Mike - I would like to come back and reply to some of the points you have made.

Mike, you can't bunch "all" long-range forecasts in a bag and say they are all dreadfully
inaccurate. Also, to put Bill Giles and my forecast in the same category is also wrong.
Bill Giles uses a sequential method of forecasting - ie. he needs to know the latest
analysis in order to project into the future. I don't. I go directly to the date I
require. Furthermore, Bill Giles explains much about the likely atmospheric weather. I
don't. My interest lies in forecasting the expected pressure situation. Your statement
reminds me of something a friend once said. He said, Long-range forecasting cannot be
done, therefore it is not done. And if you think about it, it is the death knell of all
scientific advancement.

I raised your point about my discrepancies for the 5th December. I likened them to the
discrepancies which occurred after 5 days with the NWP. I was interested to know if you used
double standards on occasions such as this. You sidestepped the argument and said that the
NWP had forecast the HP very well and had signalled it MANY days ago. Mike, I checked
with my files and the HP build up over Britain on 4th December was signalled not on the 27th
November, but on 28th November. That is 6 days before the event. And my forecasts are
inaccurate because I didn't pick up the HP at its start on 4th December, only after the 4th,
- and that at 20 or more days out. Isn't that a case of double standards.

I asked you how much leeway you would give for a forecast more than 20 days out. You
couldn't miss it, it was in capitals. You never picked up the question and you didn't give
an answer. I would say that means - no leeway. . So that means I have to be as good as
an NWP. Sounds stupid doesn't it.

Mike, this discussion can't go on. I have never been out to convince you on anything. I
have objected to your generalization, your confident way of decrying everything to do
with my long range forecast when you haven't even studied them and your setting of double
sstandards.

I have to say, too, that I respect your point of view. The forecast could be better on
some occasions. I have to thank you for your criticism (there are some people who lash out
before hand, but are as meek as a kitten after the event) and if you agree, we'll call it a
day.

Thanks again, Mike, and regards

Cheers, Keith





Mike Tullett schrieb:

On Fri, 05 Dec 2003 19:42:54 +0100, Keith Darlington wrote in


Mike, if I understand you correctly you think the detailed forecasts have a dreadful
record and you quote the detailed forecast for 5th Decamber to support your viewpoint.

Keith - I was referring to *all* those who attempt detailed forecasts at
long time ranges and there I include the likes of Bill Giles. It wasn't
aimed solely at yours.

big snip

If you find the discrepancies on the 5th December so grave, what is your opinion of
the NWP after 5 days. Are they held in the same relationship?

NWP can be quite mixed at that range (as they can be even at 24 hours).
The current build of pressure was very well signalled many days ago by
them, mind you.

Mike, I have done almost two months of forecasts. I have only found one day on which I
would say - completely wrong; not a single likeness. And I'd have a look to see why
that single forecast went wrong, and I wouldn't settle until I had found out the
reason. The date was 4th December. I didn't get the HP building up from the SW.
I saw the single depression near Spain having a connection with the Iceland LP. This
wasn't the case. I saw this coming a few days before, and I felt that if criticism
was to come, that would be the sticking point. You never noticed it, Mike, And that
tells me really how much you are studying the detailed forecasts.

I admit I don't study every day in your forecast, but I highlighted today's
as your post to Will reminded me to check what it was. I still would say
there is little relationship between your forecast for today and what has
transpired. Yes now you remind me, looking back to the 4th there was a
similar discrepancy.

For tomorrow - Saturday - you wrote:

"On 6th December, the HP of yesterday lies from S to N along the S and E
side of Britain. An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland
Winds will be light in the E and SE of the country but will turn S and
SW later. The fine weather along the E side of the country will move off
E'wards as rain and showers take over from the W."

I see a High of 1038 mb over the north of Scotland with winds from the E
and NE over central and southern areas. You mention a low extending into W
Scotland. I see three lows on the latest UKMO charts and the nearest is
over 1000 miles away. You have fine weather in the E moving off eastwards
when tomorow's winds are bringing cloud and then a clearance *from* the
east. There may well be rain in the far SW but that will have moved from
the east as the associated fronts move west and another moves north west
from Biscay.


If you do get down to studying the forecasts, you will see that the timing of the
change-over from one situation to the next is worth while the study.

For Sunday you said:
"On 7th December, a depression lies to the N of the country. A W or
WSW airstream brings rain and showers over the N half of the
country. Slightly better weather can be found in the S."

I see a high of 1034mb over the S North Sea with the nearest (very weak)
Atlantic lows to the west of Iberia and north of the Azores. There just
isn't a low to the north of Scotland unless, by that, you include the
Barents Sea.

Sorry Keith, but I am not convinced.

--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 05/12/2003 19:08:27 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

Jon O'Rourke wrote in message ...
"JCW" wrote in message
...
"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
snip
Keith, no doubt you have probably explained your methodology more than
once on
this forum if not others - unfortunately I do not recall them.
snip

Hi Joe,
The following may be of interest from around this time last year...
http://tinyurl.com/y0mx

Cheers,
Jon.



AAARRRGGGHHHHHHHHHH not the dreaded "tabus" again, ROFL.

Nice one Jon !

Will.
--

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
Hi Joe,
The following may be of interest from around this time last year...
http://tinyurl.com/y0mx

Cheers,
Jon.

Ah! thanks Jon.

I see where there's a Will there's a way!