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Old December 5th 03, 09:05 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 104
Default 12Z Model Summary - Friday 05th December 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Tuesday 09th December 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm1201.html
T+96 chart unavailable, so T+120 chart analysed.
Low pressure (980mb) lies to the east of Iceland, with another low
(995mb) developing in the Atlantic. High pressure (1035mb) lies over
Russia, and ridges towards the Azores High (1025mb). Winds across the
country are mostly moderate southwesterlies, backing southerly. Many
parts will be mainly dry with some sunny spells, but rain will move
into the west later. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this
conditions remain unsettled and turn colder as the winds turn more
northerly.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1025mb) is centred over Eastern Europe. Low pressure
(985mb) lies to the northeast of Iceland, with another low (980mb) in
the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are light to moderate
south/southwesterlies in many areas. Most southeastern parts will be
mainly dry and bright but turning cloudier with some rain in the north
and west. 850hPa temperatures range from 0C in the north and east to
+2C in the west. Forecast 2m temperatures range from 7C in central and
eastern areas to +10C in the west. Beyond this conditions turn milder
and very unsettled from the west.


DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...051200_096.gif
High pressure (1030mb) lies over Central and Eastern Europe. Low
pressure (990mb) lies close to northeast Iceland, with another low
(980mb) out in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mainly light to
moderate south/southwesterlies in many areas. Most parts will be
mainly dry and bright, with perhaps some rain in the north.
Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this conditions are
rather unsettled in the northwest as low pressure moves closer, but
the south is never too far away from high pressure.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
High pressure (1030mb) is centred over Eastern Europe. Low pressure
(980mb) lies close to southern Iceland, with another low (980mb) close
to the southwest of Britain. Winds across the UK are freshening
south/southwesterlies in many areas. Most parts will be mainly dry and
bright at first before turning wet and windy. 850hPa temperatures are
close to +2C in many areas. Temperatures will be close to normal in
most places. Beyond this conditions are mostly very unsettled.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1025mb) is centred over Central and Eastern Europe. Low
pressure (990mb) lies to the northeast of Iceland. Winds across the UK
are moderate to fresh southwesterlies in the northwest, light in the
southeast. Most southeastern parts will be mainly fine and dry, but
rain is likely in the northwest. 850hPa temperatures range from +1C in
the northwest to +5C in the southeast. Temperatures will be close to
normal. Beyond this conditions remain rather settled close to the
south, with the north seeing the most of the unsettled weather.

Canadian – T+72 hours for MONDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure lies over Europe. Low pressure (1001mb) lies to the
southwest of Britain in the Atlantic, with another low (999mb) close
to Iceland. Winds across the UK are light to moderate southerlies.
Most parts will be mainly dry and bright. Temperatures will be close
to normal.

Summary:
A rather mixed output from the models tonight, with a lot of
uncertainty about next week. Possible solutions range from all areas
turning very unsettled to just northern Britain seeing the unsettled
weather.
 
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