Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0707z, 7/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure lies to the west of northern Scotland, leading to ESE'lies for
the far north of Scotland and strong WSW'lies elsewhere. The WSW'lies
continue at T+144, but by T+168 the winds become westerlies and WSW'lies,
with low pressure to the north of the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a weak high over western France and westerlies or
WNW'lies across the UK. The winds become SW'lies for most at T+144, as a
trough from the Icelandic low moves eastwards over Ireland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A weak ridge covers the UK, with SW'lies for Northern Ireland, southerlies
for SW England and westerlies elsewhere. An area of low pressure moves over
Ireland at T+120, with westerlies for southern areas of the UK, westeries
for northern Scotland, easterlies for Northern Ireland and southerlies
elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures range from -3C over eastern Scotland to +8C
over SW and southern England. The winds become westerlies and NW'lies at
T+144, as the low moves away to the east. The NW'lies continue at T+168, but
by day 8 westerlies affect the whole of the UK, with lows to the north and
high pressure over Iberia. The westerlies continue on day 9, but by day 10 a
trough over Northern Ireland brings NW'lies and NNW'lies for Scotland and
westerlies further south.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows southerlies over the UK, with a ridge over the
southern North Sea and low pressure west of Ireland. 850hPa temperatures
range from -3C over northern Scotland to +8C over SW England. The low moves
NE'wards and deepens over northern Scotland at T+168, with WSW'lies and
westerlies to the south.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under strong SW'lies, due to a low SW of Iceland and high
pressure which extends from Spain NE'wards over France and eastwards over
Bulgaria and beyond. 850hPa temperatures vary from +1C over SE England to
+6C over NE Scotland and Northern Ireland. The winds become strong WSW'lies
at T+144, as the the Icelandic low deepens and moves ENE'wards. A trough
crosses the UK at T+168, bringing westerlies and WNW'lies. The winds become
WSW'lies and SW'lies at T+168, as a new low lies to the south of Iceland.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows a mixture of spaghetti over the UK, with SW'lies or
westerlies for most.

In summary, the runs today show an unsettled spell for the UK, although SE
England will probably stay the most settled due to its proximity to the
Continental high. Overall, the picture is a typically zonal one, with milder
weather followed by cooler westerly or NW'ly days.