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Old December 7th 03, 08:43 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 12Z Model Summary - Sunday 07th December 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Thursday 11th December 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
Low pressure (950mb) lies to the east of Greenland, with another low
(995mb) developing in the Atlantic. High pressure (1025mb) lies to the
southwest of Spain. Winds across the country are mostly moderate
north/northwesterlies. Many parts will see a mixture of sunshine and
showers - wintry in the north. Temperatures will be close to normal in
most parts. Beyond this another Atlantic low moves in bringing milder
conditions for a time but with rain and gales before turning colder
and showery next weekend with potential severe west/northwesterly
gales.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
Low pressure (965mb) lies close to the northwest of Norway. Another
low (995mb) lies between Greenland and Iceland, with yet another low
(1000mb) in the Atlantic to the west of Britain. High pressure (1030m)
lies over southern Portugal. Winds across the UK are light to moderate
west/northwesterlies in many areas, backing southerly later. Most
eastern parts will be mainly dry and bright but turning cloudier with
some rain in the west. 850hPa temperatures range from -7C in the
northeast to +5C in the extreme southwest. Forecast 2m temperatures
range from +5C in the north, +7C in central areas, and +10C in the far
southwest. Beyond this conditions turn milder for a time and wet as
low pressure moves across the country, followed by colder and showery
weather from the northwest.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...071200_096.gif
Low pressure (955mb) lies close to northern Scandinavia, with another
low (990mb) out in the Atlantic to the northwest of Ireland. High
pressure (1040mb) over Russia ridges west across the Med. Winds across
the UK are mainly moderate west/southwesterlies in many areas, but
light southeasterlies in the north. Most parts will see rain or
showers at times. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this
conditions are remain unsettled and turn colder later as the winds
veer northwesterly.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
Low pressure (650mb) lies between Greenland and Norway, with a
secondary low (985mb) over Southern Norway. Another low (990mb) lies
to the west of Iceland, with yet another low (1005mb) lying out in the
mid-Atlantic. High pressure (1025mb) lies over Southwestern Iberia,
with another high (1025mb) out in the Western Atlantic. Winds across
the UK are mainly moderate north/northwesterlies in many areas. Most
parts will see a mix of sunshine and showers. 850hPa temperatures
range from -6C in the far north to +5C in the southeast. Temperatures
will be close to normal in most places. Beyond this conditions are
mostly very unsettled with another Atlantic low moving across the UK,
perhaps allowing for colder weather by next weekend.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
Low pressure (two centres of 985mb) lies to the southeast and
southwest of Iceland. Another low (1005mb) is developing out in the
Atlantic. High pressure (1040mb) lies over Russia, and ridges strongly
westwards towards the Atlantic. Another high (1025mb) lies in the
western Atlantic. Winds across the UK are fresh to strong
southwesterlies. Most parts will be rather showery. 850hPa
temperatures are close to +6C in most parts. Temperatures will be
close to or just above normal. Beyond this conditions remain
unsettled, and turn colder from the north, with wintry showers likely
in northern areas.

Canadian – T+72 hours for WEDNESDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
Low pressure (974mb) lies close to Iceland. Another low (994mb) lies
out in the Atlantic. High pressure (1027mb) lies to the southwest of
Iberia. Winds across the UK are moderate to fresh southwesterlies.
Most parts will see rain or showers at times, especially in the
northwest. Temperatures will be close to normal.

Summary:
A unsettled outlook as we go to the end of the week, but exact details
still remain uncertain, for example, for Thursday solutions range from
a colder day with showers (UKMetO); to a dry day under a ridge of high
pressure (GFS/NOGAPS) or a mild and windy day with rain at times
(JMA/DWD). There is more general agreement on a colder outlook for
next weekend, but until there is general agreement on events
beforehand, we can't even attempt to look that far ahead.

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