Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0655z,
8/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure lies over the Western Isles, with light winds for Scotland and
westerlies elsewhere. The westerlies continue at T+144, due to a deep low
east of Iceland. T+168 sees more westerlies for all, as the low moves slowly
eastwards.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows westerlies over the UK, resulting from a secondary
low east of Scotland and a low to the east of Iceland. The winds become
WNW'lies at T+144, as the Azores High builds and sinks SE'wards.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Strong westerlies and SW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure over the
Western Isles. The low deepens and drifts ENE'wards so that by T+120 it lies
to the NE of Scotland. Westerlies cover much of the UK, with NW'lies for the
northern half of Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from -1C over Wales,
Northern Ireland and much of Scotland to +1C over southern and eastern
England. NW'lies cover the whole of the UK at T+144, as a ridge moves
eastwards towards the UK. By T+168 the ridge lies to the west of Ireland,
with NNW'lies for all. A weak ridge from a high over Biscay affects the UK
on day 8, bringing milder WSW'lies and westerlies. The winds become SW'lies
on day 9 due to a trough west of Ireland, followed by WSW'lies on day 10 as
the trough moves across the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows a deep low ENE of Iceland and a secondary low to the
SW of Ireland. As a result, winds are SW'lies across Scotland and
southerlies elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures range from -3C over northern
Scotland to +7C over Cornwall. Gale force northerlies and NW'lies then move
across the UK at T+144, with a deep low over Denmark and a high to the west
of the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Moderate WSW'lies affect the UK, with a deep low south of Iceland. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -1C over northern Scotland to +9C over southern
England. High pressure builds to the west of the UK at T+144, while the
Icelandic low moves swiftly eastwards over Scandinavia. Northerly and NW'ly
gales cover the UK as a result. The winds become lighter northerlies and
NW'lies at T+168, as the high builds and drifts eastwards. By day 8 the high
covers the English Channel, with westerlies for all.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows either westerlies, SW'lies or southerlies over the UK,
depending on the model.

In summary, the runs today show an unsettled end to the week, with low
pressure close to the UK. For the weekend, the runs diverge considerably,
with the ECM and MetO runs showing cooler WNW'lies over the UK as lows move
eastwards around the Azores High. On the other hand, the JMA, GFS and GEM
runs show the Azores High ridging northwards, setting up a shortlived cold
northerly plunge for the weekend. As ever, more runs are needed.