Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0702z,
10/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure lies to the SW of the UK, with a ridge towards Iceland. A deep
low lies to the SW of Norway, leading to strong NNW'lies and NW'lies across
the UK. By T+144 a ridge from the high covers Ireland and Wales, with
westerlies to the north and northerlies to the east. Westerlies then cover
all of the UK at T+168 as the high rotates to cover France and southern
Germany.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows high pressure to the west and SW of the UK, with
northerlies for most. The high moves SE'wards over France at T+144, allowing
westerlies and SW'lies to cover the UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Strong NW'lies and NW'lies cover the UK, due to a ridge to the west and a
deep low over the Baltic. The winds ease slightly at T+120 as the ridge
moves eastwards, while 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over NW Scotland
to -1C over SW England. The ridge moves SE'wards, traversing the UK to lie
over the North Sea at T+144. This leads to southerlies for most, followed by
stronger southerlies at T+168 as a low covers western Ireland. Another low
lies to the west of Ireland on day 8, leading to SW'lies for all, followed
by westerlies and NW'lies as it moves NE'wards on day 9. However, yet
anotehr low lies to the WSW of Ireland and by day 10 it moves NE'wards,
bringing SSW'lies and southerlies over the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows a ridge over Ireland, with NNW'lies across the UK.
850hPa temperatures range from -5C over northern Scotland to +1C over SW
England. The ridge sinks SE'wards over England and Wales at T+144, with
SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under a NW'ly flow, with a ridge to the west. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -6C over NW Scotland to -1C over SW England. By T+144
the ridge topples over France, leaving westerlies over the UK. The
westerlies continue at T+168, but by day 8 NW'lies return for most as high
pressure builds to the west of the UK.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows winds from a westerly quarter over the UK, with a low to the
north or NE.

Christmas Day charts:
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3601.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3602.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3603.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3604.gif

(Note: This section is to be taken with a large dose of salt, as the
accuracy at 15 days is likely to be close to zero. It's just for fun,
really!)
The chart for Christmas Day shows a deep low to the SW of Iceland, with a
secondary low to the WNW of Northern Ireland. A warm sector covers England
and Wales, with strong SSW'lies and WSW'lies there. Scotland and Northern
Ireland lie under cooler southerlies, while 850hPa temperatures range
from -2C over northern Scotland to +6C over SW England. Thicknesses vary
from 531dam over northern Scotland to 554dam over SW England. The whole of
the UK is shown as having received precipitation in the previous 12 hours,
but the only chance of snow from these charts is for higher areas of
Scotland. Mild, wet and windy sums up the weather for much of England and
Wales.

In summary, the runs today show a brief NW'ly interlude for Sunday and
Monday, followed by a return to the traditional "unsettled in the north,
more settled in the south" setup for Tuesday. The GFS then brings unsettled
conditions across the UK for the rest of the week.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...

Christmas Day charts:


(Note: This section is to be taken with a large dose of salt, as the
accuracy at 15 days is likely to be close to zero. It's just for fun,
really!)


If the accuracy is zero (or "close to zero"), That means that the charts
have a probabilty of 0% of being accurate.
Therefore, the charts must have a probability of 100% of being wrong!

I tend to agree that the charts 15 days in advance are never right.
It would be so ironic that the one and only time when we actually want the
charts to be wrong, that they will turn out in the end to be right!

It looks like my law is going into overdrive.

Brendan Murphy

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...


If the accuracy is zero (or "close to zero"), That means that the charts
have a probabilty of 0% of being accurate.
Therefore, the charts must have a probability of 100% of being wrong!

I tend to agree that the charts 15 days in advance are never right.
It would be so ironic that the one and only time when we actually want the
charts to be wrong, that they will turn out in the end to be right!

The trouble is, they can be wrong in so many different ways ... not
just the way many people here would like to see.

It looks like my law is going into overdrive.

Incidentally, John Hall was quite right in an earlier thread ...
Murphy's Winter has nothing to do with Murphy's Law.
The gentleman was, I think, Patrick Murphy, and his forecast
was for the winter of 1837-38 (give or take a year or two).

Allegedly he made a packet of money, but squandered it.

Philip Eden