"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued
0702z,
10/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure lies to the SW of the UK, with a ridge towards Iceland. A
deep
low lies to the SW of Norway, leading to strong NNW'lies and NW'lies
across
the UK. By T+144 a ridge from the high covers Ireland and Wales, with
westerlies to the north and northerlies to the east. Westerlies then cover
all of the UK at T+168 as the high rotates to cover France and southern
Germany.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows high pressure to the west and SW of the UK, with
northerlies for most. The high moves SE'wards over France at T+144,
allowing
westerlies and SW'lies to cover the UK.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Strong NW'lies and NW'lies cover the UK, due to a ridge to the west and a
deep low over the Baltic. The winds ease slightly at T+120 as the ridge
moves eastwards, while 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over NW Scotland
to -1C over SW England. The ridge moves SE'wards, traversing the UK to lie
over the North Sea at T+144. This leads to southerlies for most, followed
by
stronger southerlies at T+168 as a low covers western Ireland. Another low
lies to the west of Ireland on day 8, leading to SW'lies for all, followed
by westerlies and NW'lies as it moves NE'wards on day 9. However, yet
anotehr low lies to the WSW of Ireland and by day 10 it moves NE'wards,
bringing SSW'lies and southerlies over the UK.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows a ridge over Ireland, with NNW'lies across the UK.
850hPa temperatures range from -5C over northern Scotland to +1C over SW
England. The ridge sinks SE'wards over England and Wales at T+144, with
SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under a NW'ly flow, with a ridge to the west. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -6C over NW Scotland to -1C over SW England. By
T+144
the ridge topples over France, leaving westerlies over the UK. The
westerlies continue at T+168, but by day 8 NW'lies return for most as high
pressure builds to the west of the UK.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows winds from a westerly quarter over the UK, with a low to
the
north or NE.

Christmas Day charts:
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3601.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3602.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3603.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3604.gif

(Note: This section is to be taken with a large dose of salt, as the
accuracy at 15 days is likely to be close to zero. It's just for fun,
really!)
The chart for Christmas Day shows a deep low to the SW of Iceland, with a
secondary low to the WNW of Northern Ireland. A warm sector covers England
and Wales, with strong SSW'lies and WSW'lies there. Scotland and Northern
Ireland lie under cooler southerlies, while 850hPa temperatures range
from -2C over northern Scotland to +6C over SW England. Thicknesses vary
from 531dam over northern Scotland to 554dam over SW England. The whole of
the UK is shown as having received precipitation in the previous 12 hours,
but the only chance of snow from these charts is for higher areas of
Scotland. Mild, wet and windy sums up the weather for much of England and
Wales.

In summary, the runs today show a brief NW'ly interlude for Sunday and
Monday, followed by a return to the traditional "unsettled in the north,
more settled in the south" setup for Tuesday. The GFS then brings
unsettled
conditions across the UK for the rest of the week.



Thanks Darren. I like your bit of information on Xmas day and I must say
that your chart models and forecasts seem to be the most accurate forecasts
there are. I can hardly think of a time when they have been wrong. Well
done.
Back to my point. I think we have a very good idea of what Xmas will
bring from what you have here. For those of us in East Anglia and the South,
then it should be of no surprise.
My gut instinct, for what its worth, is that we will have one short cold
snap (about 4 or 5 days) and the rest of the winter will be mild. We have
had that type of pattern round my way for the past 3 winters.

Regards, Gavin.

--
************************************************** **************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

Currently writing book titled: Contemporary Societies East and West. The
introduction of this is on my homepage.


Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. ~ Confucius

All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Securities
2003.

************************************************** **************************
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In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:


"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...

Christmas Day charts:
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3601.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3602.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3603.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rtavn3604.gif

(Note: This section is to be taken with a large dose of salt, as the
accuracy at 15 days is likely to be close to zero. It's just for fun,
really!)
The chart for Christmas Day shows a deep low to the SW of Iceland, with a
secondary low to the WNW of Northern Ireland. A warm sector covers England
and Wales, with strong SSW'lies and WSW'lies there. Scotland and Northern
Ireland lie under cooler southerlies, while 850hPa temperatures range
from -2C over northern Scotland to +6C over SW England. Thicknesses vary
from 531dam over northern Scotland to 554dam over SW England. The whole of
the UK is shown as having received precipitation in the previous 12 hours,
but the only chance of snow from these charts is for higher areas of
Scotland. Mild, wet and windy sums up the weather for much of England and
Wales.

Thanks Darren. I like your bit of information on Xmas day and I must say
that your chart models and forecasts seem to be the most accurate forecasts
there are. I can hardly think of a time when they have been wrong. Well
done.
Back to my point. I think we have a very good idea of what Xmas will
bring from what you have here. For those of us in East Anglia and the South,
then it should be of no surprise.

Note what Darren has said in his bracketed sentence. I don't think that
we can place much reliance on a single model's forecast for as far as
fifteen days ahead.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Hi Gavin,

I dont know if it only happens to me, but whenever you reply to someone's
post, you appear to create a whole new Thread!
I am sure it has something to do with your software which is inserting a
semi-colon rather than a colon

Is there any way you can change the "Re;" to "" when you reply? Perhaps
there is a setting somewhere in your software.
It will keep things tidy and it makes reading threads easier.

Many Thanks.

Brendan Murphy

Brendan DJ Murphy wrote:

I am sure it has something to do with your software which is inserting a
semi-colon rather than a colon

A 'References' line in the header would help too. Is Outlook Express
broken in this area?

Steve

On Wed, 10 Dec 2003 12:46:48 +0000, Steve Loft wrote in


Brendan DJ Murphy wrote:

I am sure it has something to do with your software which is inserting a
semi-colon rather than a colon

A 'References' line in the header would help too. Is Outlook Express
broken in this area?

I've just loaded OE and the default is a colon, as is an attribution line.
I cannot work out why a semi-colon appears, but would guess the OP took out
the attribution line.

--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 10/12/2003 13:04:02 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

On Wed, 10 Dec 2003 13:04:02 +0000, Mike Tullett wrote in

snip
I've just loaded OE and the default is a colon, as is an attribution line.
I cannot work out why a semi-colon appears, but would guess the OP took out
the attribution line.

Sorry - I see now there *was* an attribution line - but still cannot work
out why there is not a "References" line in the headers. OE puts it there
by default.

--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 10/12/2003 13:08:02 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/