"White Or Stormy?
Added [Friday December 12 2003 : 11:00:48 PM]

Ok, after latest model runs, we now face two scenarios for the run up to
Christmas. A stormy time bomb lurking in the wings, a snowy pre Christmas
treat, or even both?

Still a long way off to know which will come through, but low pressure could
spring a suprise 3 to 5 days before the big day itself. GFS updates have a
cold plunge of air across the country introducing bitterly cold weather with
snowfall... Interesting indeed!

Please note that this is my own view of the expected outlook".

Source Metcheck.

My Comment:

This is getting good. Has anyone seen any quoted
odds yet?


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Currently writing book titled: Contemporary Societies East and West. The
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"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

This is getting good. Has anyone seen any quoted
odds yet?


Gavin

You know it's just the usual festive ramblings...little sign of anything very
cold at the moment around Christmas Day, especially if you look at the GFS T+288
00z run. 546dm with very strong south/south westerlies? I presume they're
"gambling" on the Atlantic lows diving south rather than just crossing us...

As for odds...these are the latest odds published on the Paddypower site. I
don't seen any changes there yet to reflect the optimism of TWO or Metcheck.

Snowflake odds for:
Glasgow 7/2
Belfast 4/1
Heathrow 5/1
Manchester 5/1
Dublin 6/1

One inch snowfall for:
Heathrow 18/1
Manchester 18/1
Dublin 20/1

J.

In article ,
JCW writes:
[White Christmas]
As for odds...these are the latest odds published on the Paddypower site. I
don't seen any changes there yet to reflect the optimism of TWO or Metcheck.

Snowflake odds for:
Glasgow 7/2
Belfast 4/1
Heathrow 5/1
Manchester 5/1
Dublin 6/1

These odds reflect the weight of money the bookies are getting more than
anything else, I imagine. At this stage, it's hard to imagine that the
true odds against a snowflake falling at Heathrow are as low as 5-1.
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

"JCW" wrote in message
...

You know it's just the usual festive ramblings...little sign of anything very
cold at the moment around Christmas Day, especially if you look at the GFS
T+288
00z run. 546dm with very strong south/south westerlies? I presume they're
"gambling" on the Atlantic lows diving south rather than just crossing us...


And at 12 days out you would have to be insane to predict conditions
on any one particular day.
Even predicting general conditions at that timescale can be tricky.

Though of course it won't stop me avidly reading all the forecasts
regarding a white Christmas

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 11:41:27 +0000, John Hall wrote in


In article ,
JCW writes:
[White Christmas]
As for odds...these are the latest odds published on the Paddypower site. I
don't seen any changes there yet to reflect the optimism of TWO or Metcheck.

Snowflake odds for:
Glasgow 7/2
Belfast 4/1
Heathrow 5/1
Manchester 5/1
Dublin 6/1

These odds reflect the weight of money the bookies are getting more than
anything else, I imagine. At this stage, it's hard to imagine that the
true odds against a snowflake falling at Heathrow are as low as 5-1.

I'd guess the climatological odds are somewhere between 10 and 15-1 for
most southern cities. But, in the last 8 years there have been 5 with the
official definition of a white Christmas somewhere in the south. Back in
1995, I got 7 or 8 to 1 but the bookies are taking into account their
recent run of losses (not least my tenner on 100F being reached:-)

--
Mike Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted to uk.sci.weather 13/12/2003 11:58:27 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

In article ,
Mike Tullett writes:
the bookies are taking into account their
recent run of losses (not least my tenner on 100F being reached:-)

Well done! What odds did you get?
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 13:08:04 +0000, John Hall wrote in

In article ,
Mike Tullett writes:
the bookies are taking into account their
recent run of losses (not least my tenner on 100F being reached:-)

Well done! What odds did you get?

By the time I got round to it - a week before - it was down to 10-1 but
still useful:-) I was in Donegal on that Sunday, sitting in the sun (a
mere 27C there), listening to Radio 5 until the first record went at
Heathrow.

--
Mike Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted to uk.sci.weather 13/12/2003 14:01:47 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

As I said in my weekly outlook trend forecast the indications are there for a
possible Arctic plunge. The extended GFS runs highlight the possibilities. What
is required is an increase in wavelength at 500 hPa and the very cold air which
has been sitting over the Arctic circle for weeks now will plunge south. The
present situation is so different from other winters where often the 546 line
has marched north of Norway with the upper longwave anchored over eastern Europe
which is the climatological norm.

Will.
--

Col wrote in message ...

"JCW" wrote in message
...

You know it's just the usual festive ramblings...little sign of anything very
cold at the moment around Christmas Day, especially if you look at the GFS
T+288
00z run. 546dm with very strong south/south westerlies? I presume they're
"gambling" on the Atlantic lows diving south rather than just crossing us...


And at 12 days out you would have to be insane to predict conditions
on any one particular day.
Even predicting general conditions at that timescale can be tricky.

Though of course it won't stop me avidly reading all the forecasts
regarding a white Christmas

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Well the charts do look very interesting after Thursday ,although its almost
impossible to say what the eventual outcome will be,fingers crossed that
Zub-Zero air will hit the UK in a weeks or so time.

Seems strange to talk of all this snow when I just recorded 13.7°c
today :-)

The GFS model from the READY plots, that I am looking at for the
Christmas period show high pressure to the SE with a southerly air
flow predominating. Have I missed something?

Keith (Southend)

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On Sat, 13 Dec 2003 15:25:01 -0000, "Blizzards"
wrote:

Well the charts do look very interesting after Thursday ,although its almost
impossible to say what the eventual outcome will be,fingers crossed that
Zub-Zero air will hit the UK in a weeks or so time.