Re-post of Forecast posted on 24th October 2003 for Christmas 2003.


During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

On 24th December, a large depression near Iceland has a trough
stretching SE'wards to the North Sea. There isn't much HP about and
what there is is pushed further south in the Atlantic as the SW portion
of the Iceland-low develops southwards to lie to the SW of Ireland.
It's a time of near-average temperatures and mixed weather for most of
the country.

On 25th December, the depression to the SW and W of the country draws
in milder SW winds with many rain showers and much unsettled weather. A
small wave forms on the S section of the Atlantic depression and this
moves NE'wards towards SW England.

On 26th December, the Atlantic LP is close to W and NW Scotland and the
wave could be somewhere near the Channel. A very unsettled day,
especially when HP is far out in the Atlantic.

On 27th December, the Atlantic HP moves eastwards towards the SW of
the British Isles and the depression to the N of Scotland moves
eastwards towards SW Norway. There is a slow improvement coming into
the SW of the country and rain showers associated with a small
depression in the southern North Sea will move away into the continent.

On 28th December, SW winds still cover the country and an extension of
the Azores HP stretches into Biscay and the Channel. The small
depression yesterday over the North Sea has moved into southern
Scandinavia. Improving weather can be expected along the S coast of
England and weather may improve slowly over the rest of the country as
an induced ridge of HP between the Atlantic and Scandinavian
depressions develops.

On 29th December Britain has at last got a ridge of HP stretching from
S to North to join up with a North Pole HP. It's a time for dryer
weather with night frost early and late - probably some fog, too during
the early hours. The only thing which can spoil the picture is a small
depression hanging around the Holland area which is looking for some
place to go.

30th December, as HP develops from the Azores to Ireland and Wales and
SW Britain, the small depression moves towards the London area from
Holland. The depression begins to draw in continental air along the SE
coast and this could cause some enjoyment for the snow fans. I can't
see the necessary pool of cold air coming over France towards the
North Sea, but I can see some cold air moving from Moscow in the
direction of Poland - a bit too far away I'm afraid.

On 31st December, a depression moves into the area S of Iceland
bringing SW winds back into Scotland. For central areas of the country
a thin belt of HP tries to run from Northern Ireland eastwards to the
HP over the continent. The small depression near Brittany with a
trough down to Spain (our hope for some snow) draws in E winds along
the SE coast. There is a chance of some sleet showers, especially night
and morning, but I feel the temperature will not be sufficiently cold
enough to bring a big downpour of snow during the day, but the chance
cannot be completely ruled out.

On 1st January 2004, a complex depression with possibly two centres
covers Scotland and Ireland. There is a chance of strong W winds coming
into the SW of the country. A day of blustery showers and no more
thoughts of snow as the temperature rises and the snow-bringing
isotherems are pushed back into the continent.

So this year it's a mild one. Only a small window for snow ( on 31st)
and then it's gone during this period.

Cheers, Keith