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Old December 15th 03, 08:02 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 12Z Model Summary - Monday 15th December 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Friday 19th December 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies over Southeastern Europe and ridges
northwestwards across Southern Britain and into the Atlantic, where
another centre (1020mb) is developing. Pressure is also rising towards
Greenland. Low pressure (980mb) lies over Northern Scandinavia, with
another low (1000mb) out in the Atlantic towards the Azores. Winds
across the country are mostly light westerlies, turning northwesterly
in the north. Many parts will be mainly dry, but northern areas may
see some rain moving south. Temperatures will be close to normal in
most parts. Beyond this high pressure develops to the west of the UK,
introducing much colder northerly winds from the Arctic and sleet/snow
showers developing in the north and east later.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1030mb) lies in the Mediterranean, and ridges northwest
towards the UK. Another high (1020mb) is developing in the Atlantic,
with pressure rising over Greenland. Low pressure (980mb) lies over
Scandinavia, with another low (1000mb) out in the Atlantic towards the
Azores. A small low (1005mb) lies close to Iceland. Winds across the
country are mostly light and from a southwesterly direction. Many
parts will be mainly dry but rather cloudy. 850hpa temperatures range
from -7C in the north to +3C in the south. Forecast 2m temperatures
range from +5C in the north to +10C in the southwest. Beyond this rain
moves across the country before much colder weather sweeps down from
the north with cold arctic air moving south, bringing sleet/snow
showers later in the north and east.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...151200_096.gif
High pressure (1025mb) lies over much of Central and Southern Europe
and ridges northwest into the Eastern Atlantic. Low pressure (985mb)
lies over Scandinavia, with another low (1000mb) out in the Atlantic,
and a weak low (1010mb) close to Portugal. Winds across the country
are mostly light to moderate northwesterly in the northeast, light and
variable in the southwest. Many parts will be mainly dry, with perhaps
some showers in the north. Temperatures will be close to normal.
Beyond this there is little change for a time before high pressure
builds to the northwest of the UK, introducing much colder weather
from the north for a time with wintry showers in the north and east.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetter-zentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetter-zentrale.com/pics/Rngp1202.html
T+96 charts not available, so T+120 charts analysed.
High pressure (1030mb) lies over France and Spain, with pressure also
high over Greenland. Low pressure (985mb) lies to the northeast of
Scandinavia, with another low (1010mb) close to Northern Ireland.
Winds across the country are mostly light to moderate
west/southwesterlies. Many southeastern parts will be mainly dry but
rain is likely in the north and west. 850hPa temperatures range from
-5C in the northeast to +5C in the southwest. Temperatures will be
close to normal. Beyond this the low moves to the east introducing
colder northerly winds with some showers, perhaps wintry in the north.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies Central and Southern Europe and ridges
into the Eastern Atlantic. Another high (1035mb) is building over
Greenland. Low pressure (985mb) lies over Scandinavia, with another
low (1000mb) in the Atlantic towards the Azores. Winds across the
country are mostly light to moderate northwesterlies. Many parts will
be mainly dry but perhaps some rain and showers in the northwest.
850hPa temperatures range from -7C in the northwest to +1C in the
south. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond this pressure
builds to the northwest of the UK, and introduces an Arctic airstream,
bringing very cold conditions with snow showers down from the north.

Canadian – T+72 hours for THURSDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure lies over Europe to the southeast of the UK. Low
pressure (979mb) lies close to Iceland, with another low (992mb) out
in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly light to moderate
south/southwesterlies. Most parts will be mainly dry and bright, but
cloudier in the north and west with some rain. Temperatures will be
close to normal, but chilly in the southeast.

Summary:
As we go towards next weekend the trend is for pressure to build to
the west/northwest of the UK, introducing much colder arctic air
across the country, with the possibility of some snow in the north and
east. However, it is still very early to be confident of this and to
look at details.
 
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