Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Boxing Day. Issued
0656z, 22/12/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies and WSW'lies, with lows to the south of Iceland
and the SW of the UK. At T+144 the Icelandic low deepens and moves SE'wards
over the North Sea, leading to northerlies for Scotland and NW'lies, SW'lies
or westerlies elsewhere. By T+168 the chart shows a slack WNW'ly / NW'ly
flow over the UK, as the low deepens over Scandinavia.

ECMWF ensembles:
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/20..._06260_NWT.gif
The ensembles show the ECM run was pretty much average until day 8, when it
becomes a cold outlier.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows the UK affected by SW'lies, with a low to the NE
and a developing trough to the SW. The two merge over the North Sea, forming
an intense low with a trough westwards over Scotland. For the rest of the
UK, winds are moderate westerlies.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A trough covers Ireland, with SSW'lies and SW'lies for the UK. The winds
become westerlies and WNW'lies for many at T+120, as the trough moves
eastwards over England. 850hPa temperatures range from -4C over Northern
Ireland to +3C over much of England. A low covers northern Scotland at
T+144, resulting in WSW'lies for all. The low fills as it moves ESE'wards
over the North Sea at T+168, leaving northerlies and NW'lies over the UK. A
ridge moves over the UK on day 8, before sinking SE'wards to leave WSW'lies
over the UK on day 9. WSW'lies and SW'lies continue to affect the UK on day
10, with low pressure to the south of Iceland.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian run shows low pressure to the NE of Scotland, leading to
westerlies for most. 850hPa temperatures vary from -3C over northern
Scotland to +1C over Kent. NW'lies, northerlies and westerlies cover the UK
at T+144, as the low moves NE'wards over Scandinavia. A secondary low lies
to the west of Ireland, which has the effect of diverting milder air away
from the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The UK lies under SW'lies from an Icelandic low, with 850hPa temperatures
ranging from -4C over NW Scotland to +1C over England and Wales. A trough
crosses the UK at T+144, with westerlies following behind. The whole of the
UK lies under westerlies at T+168, followed by SW'lies again on day 8 with a
deep low SSW of Iceland.

In summary, the runs today continue to show SW'lies or westerlies for the
end of the week. Beyond that, the ECM, GFS and Canadian runs show a
northerly or NW'ly spell, with even the MetO run showing another northerly
blast forming. As ever, more runs are needed.